A post nobody asked for: How I'd handle the FSD problem (features, HW upgrades) for early adopters

[diplomat33]

So now we have @NHK X saying his Model S/X AP2.5 MCU1 retrofit request was cancelled. Previously we have @timewasted saying his Model S/X AP2 MCU1 retrofit request was cancelled. In the meanwhile we have had the first Model 3 HW3 retrofit request (from AP2.5 MCU2 obviously) as well as of course an increasing number of reports of Model S/X AP2.5 MCU2 retrofits to HW3, including 2019 cars.

This remains consistent with what I have been saying. Tesla is starting by upgrading recent AP2.5 MCU2 cars first, both Model S/X and Model 3 starting before older Model S/X with AP2/AP2.5 MCU1.

Old cars are at the end of the line.

Yes, because they are not doing AP2 upgrades yet. That is clear. But Tesla is also not doing the mass upgrades yet either.

And if Tesla is really going to do AP2 Model S dead last, then they should have made it clearer in the service center message because that is definitely NOT what the message says.

 

[electronblue]

Yes, because they are not doing AP2 upgrades yet. That is clear. But Tesla is also not doing the mass upgrades yet either.

And if Tesla is really going to do AP2 Model S dead last, then they should have made it clearer in the service center message because that is definitely NOT what the message says.

What?

@NHK X has an AP2.5 MCU1 car.

 

[diplomat33]

What?

@NHK X has an AP2.5 MCU1 car.

All it proves is that Tesla is starting with newer cars. So? That was never in dispute. The question is whether they will do AP2 before or after Model 3's.

 

[electronblue]

All it proves is that Tesla is starting with newer cars. So? That was never in dispute. The question is whether they will do AP2 before or after Model 3's.

Well, actually, what I disagreed with you was this:

Looks like Tesla will try to give older Model S/X owners priority.

It looks like Tesla is not ”trying to give older Model S/X owners priority” if they are starting with newer cars, right?

As for Model 3 coming only after Model S/X or Tesla not yet starting the mass upgrades... I actually think these are the mass upgrades, they are just ramping up ever so slowly as usual. Model 3 reports are so far anecdotal, but they do exist, while the only AP2 MCU1 retrofit that happened was a mistake and Tesla recalled the car back to remove it.

 

[diplomat33]

Well, actually, what I disagreed with you was this:


It looks like Tesla is not ”trying to give older Model S/X owners priority” if they are starting with newer cars, right?

As for Model 3 coming only after Model S/X or Tesla not yet starting the mass upgrades... I actually think these are the mass upgrades, they are just ramping up ever so slowly as usual. Model 3 reports are so far anecdotal, but they do exist, while the only AP2 MCU1 retrofit that happened was a mistake and Tesla recalled the car back to remove it.

I already clarified that statement in an earlier post. I meant priority over the model 3, NOT first priority. If Tesla starts with all Model S/X as the message says then Tesla is giving older Model X owners priority over the Model 3, but not necessarily first priority. In other words, older Model S's won't necessarily be the first in general but will be done before the Model 3. Get it now?

 

[electronblue]

I already clarified that statement in an earlier post. I meant priority over the model 3, NOT first priority.

Fair enough, we’ll see how that goes. As for the SC message, I’m all for clarity. I agree it could have been better.

That said, I also do think you read too much into the SC message. It does not claim all Model S/X will come before Model 3, unlike you felt, it simply states Model S/X starts before Model 3 (which it already did, so that part is right). Also it does not refer to any future mass retrofit event, unlike you felt, so it can well refer to the retrofits that have already started.

The message reads very differently when you consider it referring to the events that have already started and only offering a vague priority of starting locations and car models, like I did. And not reading like a description of some future retrofit program that follows some strict priority, like you did.

 

[electronblue]

If Tesla starts with all Model S/X as the message says then Tesla is giving older Model X owners priority over the Model 3, but not necessarily first priority. In other words, older Model S's won't necessarily be the first in general but will be done before the Model 3. Get it now?

I have always gotten it, but I keep disagreeing with you, because Model 3 started shipping in summer of 2017 and Model S/X MCU2 started shipping in March 2018 — the only Model S/X Tesla is starting the retrofits with.

How can Model S/X owners from 2018-2019 somehow have older cars than Model 3 owners from 2017?

 

[electronblue]

And just to be clear, because it probably was not clear in the previous message, I also disagee with you older Model S/X would start before Model 3. I think we have already evidence Model 3 retrofits have started, so older Model S/X cars are already starting late compared to Model 3.

Basically Tesla is starting the retrofits from the latest cars, which was my point. Tesla is literally progressing backwards:

1. March 2018- Model S/X AP2.5 MCU2
2. Summer 2017- Model 3 (AP2.5 MCU2)
3. Model S/X AP2.5 MCU1? Model S/X AP2?

 

[diplomat33]

I have always gotten it, but I keep disagreeing with you, because Model 3 started shipping in summer of 2017 and Model S/X MCU2 started shipping in March 2018 — the only Model S/X Tesla is starting the retrofits with.

How can Model S/X owners from 2018-2019 somehow have older cars than Model 3 owners from 2017?

And just to be clear, because it probably was not clear in the previous message, I also disagee with you older Model S/X would start before Model 3. I think we have already evidence Model 3 retrofits have started, so older Model S/X cars are already starting late compared to Model 3.

Basically Tesla is starting the retrofits from the latest cars, which was my point. Tesla is literally progressing backwards:

1. March 2018- Model S/X MCU2
2. Summer 2017- Model 3
3. Model S/X MCU1? Model S/X AP2?

So are you saying that the Tesla Service Center message is a lie? Because that is not what it says. It says ALL Model S/X BEFORE Model 3 so Model S/X MUC1 AP2 will be done before Model 3.

 

[electronblue]

So are you saying that the Tesla Service Center message is a lie? Because that is not what it says. It says ALL Model S/X BEFORE Model 3 so Model S/X MUC1 AP2 will be done before Model 3.

No, this time I am not saying Tesla lies. I think you misinterpret them, though I agree the message could be better.

It simply stated Model S/X starts first (which it did) from the West Coast (which it did) and then they’ll basically go from there. This is outlining broadly how the concept rolls out, not a strict order in which things happen.

Then it spreads to other places in the U.S., to Model 3 etc, but these things can well happen simultanously, so some Model 3s are retrofitted while Model S/X is only ramping up too. Different configurations are not commented or specified in the message at all.

The message reads very differently if you stop trying to see it as a future retrofit program statement and instead a rough description of how the process that has already started is playing out.

 

[boonedocks]

So are you saying that the Tesla Service Center message is a lie? Because that is not what it says. It says ALL Model S/X BEFORE Model 3 so Model S/X MUC1 AP2 will be done before Model 3.

Thumbs up for how many of you have actually gotten "correct" information for something like this. I can say unequivocally that the Tesla Service Center staff do not have a good understanding on situations like this. A boulder of salt should have been taken with that SC txt before it took on a life of itself......

 

[am_dmd]

So are you saying that the Tesla Service Center message is a lie? Because that is not what it says. It says ALL Model S/X BEFORE Model 3 so Model S/X MUC1 AP2 will be done before Model 3.

Sorry to burst your bubble but they lie quite often. Once they told me my window tint is the cause of rattles

 

[Mardak]

It says ALL Model S/X BEFORE Model 3 so Model S/X MUC1 AP2 will be done before Model 3.

Where does it say "ALL"? Are you referring to your message #84 in this thread: "HW3 upgrade is not yet available for Model 3 owners. There will be a VIN rollout starting from the west coast, moving towards the east coast. Model S/X owners will get the upgrade first, again by vin. Then Model 3 will start getting rolled out. At that point there will be an auto-generated outstanding work order for hardware replacement, no ETA has been given to us. Feel free to ask additional questions you may have, you can cancel the appointment via your mobile app, otherwise we can go ahead and cancel this appointment. Thank you."

I do see that it says "first," but FSD computer retrofit mass rollout that starts with Model S/X today then mass rollout for Model 3 tomorrow would still satisfy that statement. E.g., potentially this could be a rollout ordering to get the process and service centers ready:

1. West coast S/X low vin (test on S/X platform)
   
2. West coast 3 low vin (test on 3 platform)
   
3. Midwest S/X/3 low vin (test shipping process)
   
4. West coast S/X/3 mid vin (test ramping up)
   
5. East coast S/X/3 low vin (test long distance)
   
6. West coast S/X/3 high vin (test wide rollout)
   
7. Midwest/east coast S/X/3 mid/high vin (nothing left to test)

 

[diplomat33]

Where does it say "ALL"? Are you referring to your message #84 in this thread: "HW3 upgrade is not yet available for Model 3 owners. There will be a VIN rollout starting from the west coast, moving towards the east coast. Model S/X owners will get the upgrade first, again by vin. Then Model 3 will start getting rolled out. At that point there will be an auto-generated outstanding work order for hardware replacement, no ETA has been given to us. Feel free to ask additional questions you may have, you can cancel the appointment via your mobile app, otherwise we can go ahead and cancel this appointment. Thank you."

I do see that it says "first," but FSD computer retrofit mass rollout that starts with Model S/X today then mass rollout for Model 3 tomorrow would still satisfy that statement. E.g., potentially this could be a rollout ordering to get the process and service centers ready:

1. West coast S/X low vin (test on S/X platform)
   
2. West coast 3 low vin (test on 3 platform)
   
3. Midwest S/X/3 low vin (test shipping process)
   
4. West coast S/X/3 mid vin (test ramping up)
   
5. East coast S/X/3 low vin (test long distance)
   
6. West coast S/X/3 high vin (test wide rollout)
   
7. Midwest/east coast S/X/3 mid/high vin (nothing left to test)

ALL Model S/X is implied in this line "Model S/X owners will get the upgrade first, again by vin. Then Model 3 will start getting rolled out. ". Note the bold words "first" and "then". The grammar of that sentence strongly implies that they will do ALL Model S/X first. Also, note that they never mention going back to Model S upgrades after the Model 3. It simply says model S/X will be first and then they move on to the Model 3.

I guess it is possible that they might start with Model S and then like half way through, start Model 3 upgrades at the same time. That could be alternate interpretation although I don't think it is very obvious from the wording if true.

 

[electronblue]

ALL Model S/X is implied in this line "Model S/X owners will get the upgrade first, again by vin. Then Model 3 will start getting rolled out. ". Note the bold words "first" and "then". The grammar of that sentence strongly implies that they will do ALL Model S/X first. Also, note that they never mention going back to Model S upgrades after the Model 3. It simply says model S/X will be first and then they move on to the Model 3.

I guess it is possible that they might start with Model S and then like half way through, start Model 3 upgrades at the same time. That could be alternate interpretation although I don't think it is very obvious from the wording if true.

I can’t believe you are the same person that didn’t take very well defined terms of ”Level 5 no geofence feature complete” literally, yet somehow are filling the gaps in that vague SC statement and taking it exceedingly literally?

Why are you not trying to understand what Tesla is saying this time?

 

[electronblue]

Where does it say "ALL"? Are you referring to your message #84 in this thread: "HW3 upgrade is not yet available for Model 3 owners. There will be a VIN rollout starting from the west coast, moving towards the east coast. Model S/X owners will get the upgrade first, again by vin. Then Model 3 will start getting rolled out. At that point there will be an auto-generated outstanding work order for hardware replacement, no ETA has been given to us. Feel free to ask additional questions you may have, you can cancel the appointment via your mobile app, otherwise we can go ahead and cancel this appointment. Thank you."

I do see that it says "first," but FSD computer retrofit mass rollout that starts with Model S/X today then mass rollout for Model 3 tomorrow would still satisfy that statement. E.g., potentially this could be a rollout ordering to get the process and service centers ready:

1. West coast S/X low vin (test on S/X platform)
   
2. West coast 3 low vin (test on 3 platform)
   
3. Midwest S/X/3 low vin (test shipping process)
   
4. West coast S/X/3 mid vin (test ramping up)
   
5. East coast S/X/3 low vin (test long distance)
   
6. West coast S/X/3 high vin (test wide rollout)
   
7. Midwest/east coast S/X/3 mid/high vin (nothing left to test)

Actually they don’t even promise to start from low VIN. Even @diplomat33 admits that.

It does not say they’ll go in any VIN order. ”VIN rollout” is a term used with automotive recalls and it does not imply an order, but a VIN range.

 

[diplomat33]

I can’t believe you are the same person that didn’t take very well defined terms of ”Level 5 no geofence feature complete” literally, yet somehow are filling the gaps in that vague SC statement and taking it exceedingly literally?

Why are you not trying to understand what Tesla is saying this time?

I think I am reading the statement just fine. But show me where it says that AP2 cars will be done dead last? I am not seeing anything in the statement about AP2 specifically. In fact, the only reference to AP2 is when it says that Model S upgrades will start first. You are the one who is filling in the gaps with your preconceived notions which you admitted earlier:

As I admitted in #2658, there is certainly an element of ”me knowing the answer already” in my reaction. I would like to think it is not all there is to it, but I do admit it plays an important part.

Basically, you are starting with the "answer" that AP2 will be done last and reading that into the SC statement when it is not there.

 

[electronblue]

I think I am reading the statement just fine. But show me where it says that AP2 cars will be done dead last? I am not seeing anything in the statement about AP2 specifically. In fact, the only reference to AP2 is when it says that Model S upgrades will start first. You are the one who is filling in the gaps with your preconceived notions which you admitted earlier:

Basically, you are starting with the "answer" that AP2 will be done last and reading that into the SC statement when it is not there.

Why are you bringing up AP2 all the time? I am talking about AP2.5 MCU1 mostly. It too has started after Model 3, which is already retrofitting, while AP2.5 MCU1 is not.

Anyway, my preconcieved notions — let’s just call them what they are my experience with Tesla — certainly help me read between the lines. But that’s not relevant.

What is relevant is, the message from the SC does not say what you think it says. This is also about fairness to Tesla: They are not promising all Model S/X will be retrofitted first, even though you for some very strange reason keep reading it that way.

They are saying they’ll start first with Model S/X (which they already have done) and on the West Coast (which they have also already done). After that comes East and Model 3, which they are now starting — and have already started.

Nowhere, either in the text or in the unfolding reality, is Tesla saying all or old Model S/X gets it first. They have simply stated it starts with Model S/X on the West Coast and proceeds from there.

 

[electronblue]

Now, and please @diplomat33 for your own sake pay attention, as another topic it helps to be realistic what Tesla says and how they operate. You kept saying this to me in the ”Level 5 no geofence feature complete” topic and it does make sense (assessing Tesla’s misleading statements is separate avenue of course).

So here goes:

Historically, Tesla has never, ever respected any kind of literal priority for these types of events. They pay lipservice to the priority and move on to whatever is the realistic or convenient way forward from there. Holding back Model 3 retrofits while waiting to complete all, including old and harder to retrofit Model S/X cars, is not something Tesla simply ever does.

You would know this if you had for instance bought Signature cars or the like. It does not work the way you think it does. Really, it does not. You WILL be disappointed severely if you continue thinking along this line.

 

[diplomat33]

Why are you bringing up AP2 all the time? I am talking about AP2.5 MCU1 mostly. It too has started after Model 3, which is already retrofitting, while AP2.5 MCU1 is not.

Because the issue is whether AP2 will get the upgrade in a timely manner or get hung out to dry.