A post nobody asked for: How I'd handle the FSD problem (features, HW upgrades) for early adopters

[electronblue]

Because the issue is whether AP2 will get the upgrade in a timely manner or get hung out to dry.

Why is that the issue? Why are you not concerned for AP2.5 MCU1 cars where currenly SCs are saying they are not compatible with HW3? (SC is again wrong there of course but truthful when read right — they mean the current kit is not suited.)

 

[am_dmd]

ALL Model S/X is implied in this line "Model S/X owners will get the upgrade first, again by vin. Then Model 3 will start getting rolled out. ". Note the bold words "first" and "then". The grammar of that sentence strongly implies that they will do ALL Model S/X first. Also, note that they never mention going back to Model S upgrades after the Model 3. It simply says model S/X will be first and then they move on to the Model 3.

I guess it is possible that they might start with Model S and then like half way through, start Model 3 upgrades at the same time. That could be alternate interpretation although I don't think it is very obvious from the wording if true.

What's the source? Unless you work for Tesla which you said you don't or have some solid insider info how can you tell this? No way that text could mean be interpreted like this way.
I guess that classic 3M6D didn't have a year so it wasn't wrong

 

[electronblue]

For example in the case of Model X Signature, Tesla respected literal priority for perhaps first dozen reservation holders — made a PR stunt of it.

Then came one or two lumps/batches and by the time they were finished with the Signature program, people abroad were getting their Signature cars in after a bunch of regular shipments or at best the same time as regular shipments.

This notion that Tesla would somehow retrofit all Model S/X cars in VIN order no less, and before moving to Model 3, according to some is absurd. That is not a realistic reading (or even a literal reading) of what Tesla’s SC wrote.

Tesla does not operate that way — and they did not mean it that way. (They may have formulated it in a misleading manner to sound good of course, that would fit Tesla’s style, but their crime here would have been merely vagueness... not a lie.)

 

[diplomat33]

What's the source? Unless you work for Tesla which you said you don't or have some solid insider info how can you tell this? No way that text could mean be interpreted like this way.
I guess that classic 3M6D didn't have a year so it wasn't wrong

No. I am saying they won't do that.

 

[electronblue]

No. I am saying they won't do that.

You are right. Tesla will be nowhere near halfway Model S/X retrofits when they start with Model 3 retrofits.

 

[diplomat33]

Why is that the issue? Why are you not concerned for AP2.5 MCU1 cars where currenly SCs are saying they are not compatible with HW3? (SC is again wrong there of course but truthful when read right — they mean the current kit is not suited.)

Because AP2 owners have been waiting longer for FSD than AP2.5 MCU1. I am thinking of the owners who purchased FSD in Oct 2016. They have been waiting the longest for FSD and deserve to get the FSD upgrade in a timely manner.

 

[electronblue]

Because AP2 owners have been waiting longer for FSD than AP2.5 MCU1. I am thinking of the owners who purchased FSD in Oct 2016. They have been waiting the longest for FSD and deserve to get the FSD upgrade in a timely manner.

That is true of course.

But AP2.5 MCU1 are also Model S/X cars and we must count them as well if we are to assess how many (all?) Model S/X owners getting HW3 before Model 3.

 

[diplomat33]

You are right. Tesla will be nowhere near halfway Model S/X retrofits when they start with Model 3 retrofits.

I am normally optimistic but I am not optimistic about the upgrade when it comes to when I will get it. Since I am in the midwest and a late Model 3 owner, I suspect that I am the back of the line and will have to wait until all West Coast Model S's and Model 3's are done before I get the call. I am resigned to that possibility and I am ok with it since I know AP2 FSD owners deserve to get FSD before I do.

 

[diplomat33]

That is true of course.

But AP2.5 MCU1 are also Model S/X cars and we must count them as well if we are to assess how many (all?) Model S/X owners getting HW3 before Model 3.

Yes we should count them. But the SC message just says "Model S/X" will start first and then Model 3. It does not specify AP2 or 2.5 or MCU1 or MCU2. That's really what we are discussing: within the "Model S/X Group 1", in what order will Tesla do MCU1/2 and AP2/2.5?

 

[electronblue]

I am normally optimistic but I am not optimistic about the upgrade when it comes to when I will get it. Since I am in the midwest and a late Model 3 owner, I suspect that I am the back of the line and will have to wait until all West Coast Model S's and Model 3's are done before I get the call.

You may not get a call. Nobody gets a call at first. They are getting added to the outstanding work order and they show up when you go to the SC in other business.

Just like any VIN rollout of voluntary/non-urgent recall. This has all already started. It is all already in Tesla’s SC message. This is how automotive recall/retrofit scenarios normally work.

I’m pretty confident you’ll get added to the outstanding work list long before many Model S/Xs though...

 

[electronblue]

Yes we should count them. But the SC message just says "Model S/X" will start first and then Model 3. It does not specify AP2 or 2.5 or MCU1 or MCU2. That's really what we are discussing: within the "Model S/X Group 1", in what order will Tesla do MCU1/2 and AP2/2.5?

You are right, it does not make any claims regarding that. What we do know is Tesla has started AP2.5 MCU2 retrofits and has specifically excluded AP2.5 MCU1 and AP2 so far from that process so far.

 

[diplomat33]

You may not get a call. Nobody gets a call at first. They are getting added to the outstanding work order and they show up when you go to the SC in other business.

Just like any VIN rollout of voluntary/non-urgent recall. This has all already started. It is all already in Tesla’s SC message. This is how automotive recall/retrofit scenarios normally work.

I’m pretty confident you’ll get added to the outstanding work list long before many Model S/Xs though...

What if I don't have any business that requires the SC? When I can request the FSD upgrade when I don't need anything else done?

 

[electronblue]

What if I don't have any business that requires the SC? When I can request the FSD upgrade when I don't need anything else done?

I would expect when it appears on your car’s outstanding work order and you specifically call them to ask to do it, they would oblige.

 

[Mardak]

Specifically regarding "VIN rollout" and "by VIN," someone from our Service Center asked when we purchased our Tesla and responded by saying we'll get the FSD computer later than those purchased earlier when the mass retrofit begins, so while they didn't specifically ask about VIN, the response matches up with the preference to begin with lower VINs then move on to higher VINs, i.e., giving preference to those who have waited longer.

Otherwise thinking of "VIN rollout" as just a general targeting of who gets the retrofit instead of a comment on which vehicles get upgrades earlier, the message could have said "we'll do upgrades for those who need upgrades" but that's somewhat obvious. The repeated "by VIN" statement seems likely to be more than "the obvious."

 

[electronblue]

Specifically regarding "VIN rollout" and "by VIN," someone from our Service Center asked when we purchased our Tesla and responded by saying we'll get the FSD computer later than those purchased earlier when the mass retrofit begins, so while they didn't specifically ask about VIN, the response matches up with the preference to begin with lower VINs then move on to higher VINs, i.e., giving preference to those who have waited longer.

Otherwise thinking of "VIN rollout" as just a general targeting of who gets the retrofit instead of a comment on which vehicles get upgrades earlier, the message could have said "we'll do upgrades for those who need upgrades" but that's somewhat obvious. The repeated "by VIN" statement seems likely to be more than "the obvious."

Tesla likes to hint at stuff like this but in reality it never, ever works that way.

Please do not imagine it will be so here, you will be disappointed.

Indeed already today the HW3 retrofit thread is full of people who bought their cars in 2018-2019. ONLY.

 

[Mardak]

When I can request the FSD upgrade when I don't need anything else done?

Our Service Center believes once the mass retrofit begins, the Tesla App will show a notification when your vehicle is selected, and then you can schedule the appointment just for the FSD upgrade. And for places where Mobile Service can handle the retrofit, that should be the preferred option.

It looks like the current retrofits are mostly one-off training/tests opportunistically having some Service Centers get experience on vehicles that are already in for service to determine if Tesla is ready to begin wider deployment. This is not too different from how software rollout happens where a small percentage of newer (and older) cars can get the update first because Tesla is selecting test vehicles that match certain criteria to gauge if they're ready for a wider software deployment.

 

[diplomat33]

Our service center believes once the mass retrofit begins, the Tesla App will have show a notification when your vehicle is selected, and then you can schedule the appointment just for the FSD upgrade. And for places where Mobile Service can handle the retrofit should be the preferred option.

It looks like the current retrofits are mostly one-off training/tests opportunistically having some Service Centers get experience on vehicles that are already in for service to determine if Tesla is ready to begin wider deployment. This is not too different from how software rollout happens where a small percentage of newer cars can get the update first because Tesla is selecting test vehicles that match certain criteria to gauge if they're ready for a wider software deployment.

Exactly. I agree. I don't think the mass upgrades have started yet. The pace is too slow. And the reference to "auto generate order" in the SC message would seem to support what you are saying about the Tesla app notifying us to schedule the upgrade appt.

 

[electronblue]

@Mardak @diplomat33

I see there is no convincing you, so believe what you want to believe. Over and out.

 

[electronblue]

@diplomat33 @Mardak

Model 3 Group 1 retrofits have started:

Model 3 HW3 upgrade complete. A few additional details inside. : teslamotors

 

[electronblue]

One comment on volumes: I of course agree HW3 retrofit volumes are abysmal and the ramp-up unconvincing. That said, there is no reason to believe this is anything other than the way Tesla intends to ramp this up — slowly and starting from the newest cars. There is nothing in the SC message or other Tesla messaging of recent times to suggest anything else.