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A theory about AP vs FSD

huangm777

Member
Nov 3, 2019
132
151
Southern California
I have a theory regarding the division of Autopilot and FSD features post-EAP: besides the obvious reason ($$$), it seems, based on reports I’ve seen here and elsewhere, that while TACC and Autosteer are relatively mature, stable technology, the now-FSD features like Summon, NoA, and auto lane change aren’t. They appear to be in something like beta: feature complete with most non-edge cases working, but with bugs on the corner cases. It would explain why basic AP is now standard: Tesla feels confident enough that they can give it to everyone.

Plus, lots of other cars have similar tech now. My last car, a 2017 Prius Prime, had decent adaptive cruise control and lane departure warnings (and the latter was, like in some examples cited here, got confused in merging lanes). The tech is not unique.

Does this ring true? If so it does validate my decision to wait on FSD for now. I’ve seen too many stories about risky lane changes and broken Summons. The $7k cost is almost like an early adopter tax/research funding. Someone compared it, accurately I think, to a Kickstarter project, where early funders get to lock in a price. Given that, it seems that unless one has the money and belief to fund ongoing R&D, the average driver should wait until those features are more mature.
 

jjrandorin

Moderator, Model 3, Tesla Energy Forums
Nov 28, 2018
7,681
8,460
Riverside Co. CA
You have come to the right conclusion.

True, as long as anyone making this decision is not "mad" IF the techology firms up and tesla then starts charging like 10k for it. We all know that IF that happens, people will flood websites like this and say stuff like "OMG how can tesla charge so much for this?!?!??!?!" It used to be 2,000 for this upgrade, and now they want 10k for it??!?!?!??! Its not worth more than 2k, come on everyone lets complain until they lower the price!!!!" (neglecting to mention that the 2k price was for like a 3 week time span).

Its definitely beta, and I feel fairly confident that my current model 3 will never "drive me to work and back without my intervention". But I bought it anyway. One, I wanted "the newest computer", because there is going to be some point where one will need the newest computer to get "some feature" and I did not want to have FOMO at that point.

I paid 5k for EAP, then 2k for FSD during the above mentioned fire sale. I dont even use NOA very much at all, but still dont mind the pricing I paid for that stuff "too" much.

If one is looking at "value" however, or wants a mature product, yeah, those features aint them, lol.
 

mreynolds767

Member
Jul 11, 2019
728
392
Boston
I am content on waiting and potentially paying more for doing so when the features become more mature. I am not sure they get there until they start using the HW3 hardware potential ; so only way I would be tempted to pay the $7K today is if I owned a model 3 with HW2.5 ; my understanding is if you buy the FSD package, you will get a free upgrade to HW3 at some point.
That may not always be the case.
 

huangm777

Member
Nov 3, 2019
132
151
Southern California
Thanks for the replies. I’m personally fine if it ends up being a lot more expensive when the more refined versions of FSD come out; going with the “beta” theory it’s why software companies sometimes give out public betas for free but charge full price on public release. Except in this case, it would be a really bad idea to give out these features for free, as the relatively high cost will keep away the jokers and careless types who might use the features irresponsibly or unsafely. Testing these kinds of features carries some pretty serious responsibilities that could affect your own and others’ lives. In that way it’s something between a closed and open beta.

I could foresee, unlikely as it is, a random number of Tesla owners given steep discounts on FSD when the features are close to maturity. That would probably lead to tons of complaints, but from a software perspective, it’d be a way to conduct random trials in a wide range of the driver population who’d be able to work out the last kinks.

I’m just thinking like a software dev here and also trying to give Tesla some benefit of the doubt, though from everything I’ve heard, it seems they are making up almost everything as they go along. I wonder if one or two decades from now, when EVs will be as boring as gas cars today, we’ll look back fondly at the present as those young, scrappy, pioneering days when things were sometimes rough but amazing.
 
Last edited:

jjrandorin

Moderator, Model 3, Tesla Energy Forums
Nov 28, 2018
7,681
8,460
Riverside Co. CA
I could foresee, unlikely as it is, a random number of Tesla owners given steep discounts on FSD when the features are close to maturity. That would probably lead to tons of complaints, but from a software perspective, it’d be a way to conduct random trials in a wide range of the driver population who’d be able to work out the last kinks.

They wouldnt need to offer steep discounts for more testing. They have plenty of people who purchased it who are beta testing it for them, remember? If for some reason they need more, they can simply just turn on the "free trial" thing again. No need to discount it if they dont want to.

Of course, they may want to at some point, just saying that they have zero need to discount it to "get more systems out there" like a traditional dev.
 

M3FNATIK

Recovering BMW Addict
Nov 9, 2019
256
159
SoCal
I have a theory regarding the division of Autopilot and FSD features post-EAP: besides the obvious reason ($$$), it seems, based on reports I’ve seen here and elsewhere, that while TACC and Autosteer are relatively mature, stable technology, the now-FSD features like Summon, NoA, and auto lane change aren’t. They appear to be in something like beta: feature complete with most non-edge cases working, but with bugs on the corner cases. It would explain why basic AP is now standard: Tesla feels confident enough that they can give it to everyone.

Plus, lots of other cars have similar tech now. My last car, a 2017 Prius Prime, had decent adaptive cruise control and lane departure warnings (and the latter was, like in some examples cited here, got confused in merging lanes). The tech is not unique.

Does this ring true? If so it does validate my decision to wait on FSD for now. I’ve seen too many stories about risky lane changes and broken Summons. The $7k cost is almost like an early adopter tax/research funding. Someone compared it, accurately I think, to a Kickstarter project, where early funders get to lock in a price. Given that, it seems that unless one has the money and belief to fund ongoing R&D, the average driver should wait until those features are more mature.

Great post OP. I came to the same conclusion and removed the FSD from my build a few days ago.
 

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