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A Theory on this Week's Announcement

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Here are some speculation as to alternative mechanisms to help Elon raise the cash without exercising his options or selling his stock (and thus mitigating the tax hit he might take in such a sale):

I revisited the June 12, 2012 form 10-Q from Tesla to revisit Elon's option package and ownership interest at the time. Based on what I found, it seemed as if Elon had a total ownership potential of 29% in Tesla. 20% is through options and 9% is through direct investment. (Anyone out there care to double check this for me?)

The direct ownership at today's market cap would be valued at about $810,000,000. What if Elon decided to pledge $465,000,000 of that direct ownership interest as collateral and worked with Goldman Sachs (who in the past has loaned him funds based on his ownership in Tesla, also detailed in the 10-Q). In turn, GS would give him a low interest loan and he would provide cash to Tesla to completely pay off the DOE loan and get a huge monkey off his and Tesla's back. From a tax standpoint, it might make sense for him to do a loan rather than an outright sale. Long-Term capital gains rates are around 23% now with the Medicare surcharge. Given today's interest rate environment, he might be able to get a loan rate in the 4% or so range.

By my calculations, over the past few months, Elon's stake in Tesla (assuming he has 29% of the company) has gone from about $1,160,000 to $2,610,000. Also his stake in Solar City has increased tremendously as well. He could be feeling quite flush with cash right now and based on his longer-term aspirations, paying of the DOE loan would be a way to continue moving Tesla forward. It would no longer have the interest and principle payments due to the DOE. Also I think in terms of market cap and hurting the shorts, it would push the stock higher, especially if Elon could engineer it so he doesn't have to sell shares on the open market or have to do a private placement to raise the cash. This is a WAG, but I estimate that Elon's personal net worth due to his ownership in Tesla, Solar City and SpaceX to be in the neighborhood now north of $5b. At that lofty net worth figure, $465,000,000 would not be a big stretch for him to come up with.

If he found it difficult to get a $465m private loan, he could do some combination of private placement sale and a personal loan to pay off some or all of the DOE loan.

Also forgive my ignorance here, but I'm not even sure if it's legal for an individual shareholder in publicly traded company (even if it is one of the primary owners) to simply give the company money to pay off a loan without an exchange of equity or debt.

There is speculation that he could exercise his options to give the company the cash that way, but it doesn't seem like the math would work out to pay off the DOE loan in that kind of transaction. Plus, to retain the greatest ownership interest it seems as if using his direct ownership shares (whether they be pledged as collateral or transferred in a private placement) would be the most efficient way for him to keep his maximum ownership interest. Ex. If he has options priced at $31 a share, his net cash out (Before taxes) from them at $80 would be $49 a share. But his direct ownerships shares would net out (before taxes) $80. Thus he would not need to sell or pledge as many direct ownership shares to generate the same amount of cash.
 
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Here are some speculation as to alternative mechanisms to help Elon raise the cash without exercising his options or selling his stock (and thus mitigating the tax hit he might take in such a sale):

I revisited the June 12, 2012 form 10-Q from Tesla to revisit Elon's option package and ownership interest at the time. Based on what I found, it seemed as if Elon had a total ownership potential of 29% in Tesla. 20% is through options and 9% is through direct investment. (Anyone out there care to double check this for me?)

The direct ownership at today's market cap would be valued at about $810,000,000. What if Elon decided to pledge $465,000,000 of that direct ownership interest as collateral and worked with Goldman Sachs (who in the past has loaned him funds based on his ownership in Tesla, also detailed in the 10-Q). In turn, GS would give him a low interest loan and he would provide cash to Tesla to completely pay off the DOE loan and get a huge monkey off his and Tesla's back. From a tax standpoint, it might make sense for him to do a loan rather than an outright sale. Long-Term capital gains rates are around 23% now with the Medicare surcharge. Given today's interest rate environment, he might be able to get a loan rate in the 4% or so range.

By my calculations, over the past few months, Elon's stake in Tesla (assuming he has 29% of the company) has gone from about $1,160,000 to $2,610,000. Also his stake in Solar City has increased tremendously as well. He could be feeling quite flush with cash right now and based on his longer-term aspirations, paying of the DOE loan would be a way to continue moving Tesla forward. It would no longer have the interest and principle payments due to the DOE. Also I think in terms of market cap and hurting the shorts, it would push the stock higher, especially if Elon could engineer it so he doesn't have to sell shares on the open market or have to do a private placement to raise the cash. This is a WAG, but I estimate that Elon's personal net worth due to his ownership in Tesla, Solar City and SpaceX to be in the neighborhood now north of $5b. At that lofty net worth figure, $465,000,000 would not be a big stretch for him to come up with.

If he found it difficult to get a $465m private loan, he could do some combination of private placement sale and a personal loan to pay off some or all of the DOE loan.

Also forgive my ignorance here, but I'm not even sure if it's legal for an individual shareholder in publicly traded company (even if it is one of the primary owners) to simply give the company money to pay off a loan without an exchange of equity or debt.

There is speculation that he could exercise his options to give the company the cash that way, but it doesn't seem like the math would work out to pay off the DOE loan in that kind of transaction. Plus, to retain the greatest ownership interest it seems as if using his direct ownership shares (whether they be pledged as collateral or transferred in a private placement) would be the most efficient way for him to keep his maximum ownership interest. Ex. If he has options priced at $31 a share, his net cash out (Before taxes) from them at $80 would be $49 a share. But his direct ownerships shares would net out (before taxes) $80. Thus he would not need to sell or pledge as many direct ownership shares to generate the same amount of cash.


He really should do this. Will definently be good for shareholders, but also most important, get more of thoose amazing cars out on the market. Cant belive they should just sell 20k ish cars a year. For people knowing the european market, sky is the limit!
 
New S Buyers

He really should do this. Will definently be good for shareholders, but also most important, get more of thoose amazing cars out on the market. Cant belive they should just sell 20k ish cars a year. For people knowing the european market, sky is the limit!

If Elon can find a way to pull this off, it pokes the shorts in the eyes, gets great free press and removes detractors/distractions and has the additional benefit of providing a large number of potential new S and X reservations from longs that profit. It wouldn't be substantive for a volume car maker, but for TESLA, it could be a positive feedback loop.
 
Doubt it. Elon on the 7th:

"Am a fan of Larry, Sergey & Google in general, but self-driving cars comments to Bloomberg were just off-the-cuff. No big announcement here"

That just meant that his comment that was being quoted AT THAT TIME were not meant to be a big announcement...

He could make an autopilot announcement today and that wouldn't make his previous statement untrue...

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Paying off the loan early is not necessary. The warrants that the DOE had were only valid if Tesla took more than 5 years to payback the loan. One of the main reasons that Tesla announced paying off the loan early was to invalidate those warrants. In the 10-K they were able to remove the liability of these warrants from there books which helped them become GAAP profitable.
 
Any stock options exercised by Elon would be at an agreed call price far lower than the current market price. The company treasury would issue newly created shares to him, and he would pay the treasury the low contracted call price. That would increase the amount of cash available to the company. Because Elon is not expected to sell shares until well into the future, his shares are not considered part of the float. Therefore, his new shares should not be considered dilutive to the float. Again, the cash addition to the treasury would not be for the current market value of the shares.
 
Any stock options exercised by Elon would be at an agreed call price far lower than the current market price. The company treasury would issue newly created shares to him, and he would pay the treasury the low contracted call price. That would increase the amount of cash available to the company. Because Elon is not expected to sell shares until well into the future, his shares are not considered part of the float. Therefore, his new shares should not be considered dilutive to the float. Again, the cash addition to the treasury would not be for the current market value of the shares.

This is understood. The question is what would keep Elon from selling enough shares from his grant of 6,711,912 (excersized at $6.63) on the open market to get $495M for the repayment of the loan, if he wants to do this?

As I've posted above (#12) that trade could even have happend yesterday, given huge volume and drop from $97 to $83. Am I missing anything?
 
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Did some math cause your statement intrigued me.

There's about 2.8 million employees working for the federal government. Say a roll of TP is $1, and you need a new roll every seven days for every person. 3 million people x $1 per roll x 52 rolls per year = $156 million per year in toilet paper costs. So not quite $465 million but actually not too far off.
 
I love the thoughts, but we on TMC really make these announcements out to be much bigger than they ever were intended, and then we get disappointed.

To avoid disappointment, I say we're going to hear about the 10k vehicles produced.

Anything bigger will be a pleasant surprise.
 
The question is what would keep Elon to sell enough shares from his grant of 6,711,912 (excersized at $6.63) on the open market to get $495M for the repayment of the loan, if he wants to do this?

If Elon receives personal cash by selling his shares in the open market, and then pays off the company's loan with his own money, that would be a gift from him to the company. Meanwhile, his selling of newly created shares would dilute the float.
 
This is understood. The question is what would keep Elon from selling enough shares from his grant of 6,711,912 (excersized at $6.63) on the open market to get $495M for the repayment of the loan, if he wants to do this?

As I've posted above (#12) that trade could even have happend yesterday, given huge volume and drop from $97 to $83. Am I missing anything?
I don't think you are hopefully he is not. The stock would rise on that news enough to make for any loss of his and the political bs will disappear. Could proceed to gen 3 quicker.
 
I don't see Elon giving the money to Tesla as a gift (if for no other reason, giving money to a company actually sounds like it could be painful). But I imagine it could be arranged to be the next best thing to a gift - Elon buys newly issued Tesla shares in a private placement. Maybe even prices them to be real friendly (simple math - 4M new shares @ $100/share plus the ~$50M from the option exercise). That's the next best thing to a gift and accomplishes the end result we're discussing.

I believe the most efficient way to accomplish this, if Elon had it in his mind to make this kind of grand gesture, would be to reprice the option grant, such that it is struck at the current price rather than his original $6.60/sh or whatever it was. He could then exercise that option grant and receive those shares, and Tesla would have about $570 million.

I find this enters the realm of possibilty only because we know how strong Elon's passion is for the cause of sustainable transport. but even with Elon, I find the likelihood of this taking place to be infinitesimal. It amounts to a $550 million philanthropic donation to a for-profit company. Does he even have $$550 million extra cash lying around? Building rockets ain't cheap you know...
 
I love the thoughts, but we on TMC really make these announcements out to be much bigger than they ever were intended, and then we get disappointed.

To avoid disappointment, I say we're going to hear about the 10k vehicles produced.

Anything bigger will be a pleasant surprise.

+100

Nothing worse than setting your expectations too high. I like setting probabilities better.

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Nothing worse than setting your expectations too high. I like setting probabilities better.

87% Tesla announces 10K Model S produced/delivered
PRO: 10K cars produced was already updated on the tesla.com website (but included ~2500 Roadsters in count)
4 Weeks later they announce 10,00th car and production rates at 500/week.
CON: Not big enough to bring up as an announcement on it's own, but this is Elon so of course it may come up in context of bigger announcement.

5% Battery swap
PRO: Has discussed swap in 2011, 2012 and on the recent conference call and 10K as coming in the "near future".
CON: Member photos and observations make swap not time efficient.

3% New financial offering/share buy-back. Money is used to substantially expand their offering OR to pay back GOV'T Loans early.
PRO: It relieves one of the biggest gripes from conservatives. Changes the conversation from deadbeat to rags-to-riches story.
Could speed the growth of factory buildout/superchargers/service center/showrooms
CON: Improves their balance sheet, share price but wastes money otherwise put into the product for marginal better coverage.
Changes the pace of growth for additional risk. System doesn't have time to mature, growing pains and uncertainty are possible.

3% Aluminum/Water recharge/ you buy/rent/taking with you/put in the frunk
PRO: Tesla has patents in this area.
Would change where people would need to live in order to buy this car immediately for long-distance trips.
CON: HUGE technology change from the current battery form.
Hardware retrofit would be expensive.
Empty cubby space in Frunk fits the second motor for Model S all-wheel-drive even better.

1% Unknown - enough said

1% New features/Autopilot testing
PRO: Secret menu found that has parking & lane assist potential.
Just talked about Google Autopilot.
CON: Said he was talking off-the-cuff
Elon said would require new hardware

1% Supercharging increase in # and speed (99% coming soon)
PRO: Telegraphed for the past 6 months.
9 Superchargers in US with 16-25 more added within the month. Normal, IL, TX (1-3), CA (2-3), FL (2-4), CO (1-2) Southeast (3-5) , OR (1-2) , WA(1-2)
First international Superchargers in Canada (1-3) and Norway (1-3)
Step-up speeds have been discussed. Assumptions at 120kWh higher is possible
CON: Waiting for next week.
 
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I think yall are vastly overestimating the impact this loan has on Teslas business. I do not believe a from-zero entrepeneur like Elon would approve of spending 400+M$ just to get some loan paid off, a loan they are already making accelerated payments on.

Think of how many businesses you could bootstrap with 400M$.
 
Tesla Motors - Automatic shelf registration statement of securities of well-known seasoned issuers

As far as I can understand this is just a prepration document?

"(4) In addition to any securities that may be registered hereunder, we are also registering an indeterminate number of shares of common stock as may be issued upon conversion or exercise of the securities issued directly hereunder. No separate consideration will be received for any shares of common stock so issued upon conversion or exercise."

So this is in preparation of Elon's options exercise, the first part of his CEO program???
 
I have insider knowledge that Apple Computer is holding a pretty big internal all-hands meeting this Friday morning. A fairly significant one - the content of which is unknown.

Could Apple be making a significant investment in TSLA? Elon has eluded to this before that a non-auto manufacturer could get onboard. So not a sellout, but a partnership to invest heavily into TSLA from Apple (they have gobs of cash obviosuly) that would pay off their debt, give Apple a stake and form a partnership where Apple creates software and electronics for Tesla.

Now, all hands meetings happen at companies often and this is unlikely. But since we're the speculating types...
 
I have insider knowledge that Apple Computer is holding a pretty big internal all-hands meeting this Friday morning. A fairly significant one - the content of which is unknown.

Could Apple be making a significant investment in TSLA? Elon has eluded to this before that a non-auto manufacturer could get onboard. So not a sellout, but a partnership to invest heavily into TSLA from Apple (they have gobs of cash obviosuly) that would pay off their debt, give Apple a stake and form a partnership where Apple creates software and electronics for Tesla.

Now, all hands meetings happen at companies often and this is unlikely. But since we're the speculating types...

Now this is the kind of speculation I LOVE! :) Issue some new shares not for the public but for AAPL to buy at market price...
 
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