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A World without Tesla Motors

Discussion in 'Tesla, Inc.' started by Kardax, Jul 5, 2007.

  1. Kardax

    Kardax Member

    Jun 8, 2007
    Minnesota, USA
    Hypothetically speaking, let's assume that Tesla Motor's WhiteStar and BlueStar plans fail and the future of the automotive world is in the hands of the established big automakers. Not a pleasant thought.

    There is reason for optimism, though, as market economics are going to force things to happen. Mainly it's the effects of efficiency and scarcity at work. There are a great number of alternative-fuel technologies in development now and some will be in competition, eventually.

    Battery-electric vehicles: Limited mainly by battery technology. One can expect this situation to be improved with time, but it's somewhat doubtful that they'll ever match the energy density and affordability of other options. I think eventually we'll reach an equilibrium point, where BEVs have a total cost of ownership that's competitive with other options. Tesla just might make it happen sooner :)

    Biofuels: E85, E100, and biodiesel. Like food, it requires farmland, but then so does population growth. Since population growth isn't going to stop until we can't produce enough food, the only effect of biofuels is we'll hit that point sooner. It can be considered a long term solution because no non-renewable sources are required.

    Compressed Natural Gas: Efficient, but not renewable, so we'll run out eventually. Not a long-term solution.

    Coal to liquid: Not efficient (but could be an option of desperation). Won't work long-term as coal is not renewable.

    Hydrogen: Way more popular than it really deserves to be, perhaps because it's only tailpipe emission is pure water. The only renewable source is electrolysis of water, which is inefficient (thus expensive), and storing hydrogen is difficult (and thus expensive). Since it's renewable, it can be considered a long-term solution, but it'll always be more expensive than other options, thus limiting use.

    Oil-based fuels: These will linger for a long time, perhaps 100 years or more, but the increasing scarcity caused by its non-reneweability means that inevitably it will go away.

    So, we're on a path that will lead to the competition of Hydrogen, Biofuels, and BEVs Hydrogen will lose because of its expensiveness. So Biofuels and BEVs are it.

    The future is thus an oil-free economy even without Tesla's help. Biofuels, BEVs, and hybrids of the two will take over. If quick-charge is fully developed, then BEVs will dominate.

    At least, that's what I think. ;) Any comments or corrections?

    -Ryan / Kardax

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