So I purchased a Used 2016 P90D - my current max is 234 miles, and 212 miles (at 90%, the recommended daily charge), 16K on the clock
This was despite the claimed 250 miles on the purchase sheet - I still got a great deal, but if range is an issue, you might want to consider going for a newer model.
Looking at the other threads, that seems to expected by Tesla
But what that really amounts to in the cold (I see you are in NY) is that when I get in my car in the morning, pre conditioned for 10 mins, it says 212-210 miles, but when I get to work 8 miles away, it's already down to 186 miles or so.
In the end, I decided to stick with mine because it came with free Supercharging for life so hopefully can drive this car for long and really abuse that but if I had to do it over, I may gone for a different / newer battery pack option