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Accelerated production a mistake...

Discussion in 'Model 3: Ordering, Production, Delivery' started by zambono, May 5, 2016.

  1. zambono

    zambono Member

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    Those who reserved are aware of the current wait and I am sure much rather have a polished vehicle than a rushed one to appease those who are towards the back of the reservation queue. It will mean less quality control, and more vehicles out the door with possible early issues. The charging network and service networks won't be ready in time for the increased amount of vehicles.
     
  2. AnOutsider

    AnOutsider S532 # XS27

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    You mightr be right. But I would have to assume that Tesla took all of this into account. Ramping up production also means ramping up delivery personell, service centers, and perhaps even supercharger rollout.

    As for quality, I've been down this path with Tesla twice now and won't hold my breath that there would be a big change in what they roll off the line if they did it mid 2017 or early 2018 (after all, March 2015 Elon was saying they COULD roll out the X now, but wanted to take their time. Meanwhile, the doors were apparently redone in May, and quality is only now up to par).

    I'd hope that Tesla is planning to start ACTUALLY producing vehicles well before launch so that they can catch more issues before production for consumers begins. The Model X had a "launch" last September that we all know was a farce. It was basically their first production run, as evidenced in the delay between that event and cars finally reaching consumers later in the year.
     
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  3. nienco2

    nienco2 Member

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    Agreed, this is just puzzling. During the conference call when EM went on repeating July '17 was the key date, but it would be impossible to meet, but it was the date everyone would be held accountable to meet I understood why the two top manufacturing/production guys are leaving. There is no competition on the horizon so this speed up seems unnecessary imo.
     
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  4. Vitold

    Vitold Member

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    #4 Vitold, May 5, 2016
    Last edited: May 5, 2016
    Model 3 has 50% less parts than Model X, therefore it's easier to make right. Plus drivetrain has already been finalized, while gigafactory will start battery production at the end of 2016.

    Time is money. July deadline sends a strong message to suppliers in two parts - for one, your return on investment will be short and two, if you cannot move fast - quit now.

    Accelerated deliveries was the best move EV leader like Tesla could have made. Cherry on the cake is that recently Germans setup EV incentives in such way that neither Model S, 3, X could qualify - but under new delivery schedule Model3 will.
     
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  5. Skotty

    Skotty 2014 Model S P85

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    I don't think they are rushing ahead in a haphazard fashion. It seems well thought out to me, and they have emphasized that this car is being designed to be easy to manufacture. If they don't scale up faster than originally planned, people might be waiting over 5 years for delivery. That's starting to become unreasonable and significant when measured in the time frame of a human life.

    The only real downside I would expect is that they might not make certain revisions that could improve the car design, like trying to enlarge the trunk opening.

    I wouldn't worry about a couple of executives leaving. The enthusiastic ones won't leave unless some other part of their life demands it. The unenthusiastic ones Tesla is better off without.

    QC doesn't have to suffer. It just has to be scaled up in the same manner.

    Whatever the end result is, for better or for worse, it should make the next few years much more interesting and exciting.
     
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  6. 182RG

    182RG Free The Service Manuals From Tyranny

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    No bucks, no Buck Rodgers. You have to keep the investor and fan buzz both going to generate interest in more capital infusion. Time is a risk.
     
  7. Petra

    Petra Member

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    I like the approach Tesla seems to be taking--become massively successful in a short period of time or fail spectacularly and completely. It fits with the 'fail faster' mantra that I grew up with in the SF bay area. That said, my hope is that they succeed... if nothing else, just so that parts, service, and Superchargers for my Model S remain available. ;)
     
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  8. Waiting4M3

    Waiting4M3 Member

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    I don't see the 2 exec leaving as that big of a deal.

    Sounds like the Production VP Greg Reichow left because he was burnt out from the MX roll out. At least he waited till the MX production is "flawless" now to announce his departure. Tesla and Elon also had good things to say about him, which makes sense because they want him to stay around to hand off to the next guy.

    in contrast, the manufacturing VP Josh Ensign just left. I haven't seen any positive comments from Tesla about that guy. Maybe that guy was responsible for the delay in MX production, if that were indeed the case, then I say good riddance.

    Remember the China sales debacle? Elon fired a bunch of execs, and started turning it around. Traditional companies like stability, and C*O's are like a closed club, only those with "in" are allowed, and given cushy jobs for life. At Tesla, it seems that everything moves fast, both technology wise and also personnel wise, if something doesn't work, it gets changed, right away.
     
  9. BluestarE3

    BluestarE3 Active Member

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    #9 BluestarE3, May 5, 2016
    Last edited: May 5, 2016
    We Westies and Tesla employees will do the early model testing so that some of the quality issues may already be resolved by the time the Model 3 makes its way across the country. :)

    Seriously, though, I don't think Tesla had any choice but to accelerate the rollout of the Model 3. With the unexpected and unprecedented number of reservations, the masses won't be as patient as the Roadster/Model S/Model X early adopters as far as waiting years for deliveries. Unlike with the Model X roll-out, this time they can't just deliver a token handful of Founders' cars and claim victory; regular folks won't buy it. Likewise, the investment community would not react kindly if they didn't think Tesla was taking timely proactive steps to address the huge backlog of reservations; there are those who doubt Tesla's ability to ramp up production and delivery. Not to mention the bad publicity from delays and/or long wait-times that will dry up future demand beyond the initial 400K (or whatever number of reservations are left after impatient or wary customers cancel).

    Sure, keeping to the original schedule will afford more time for tweaking and testing. But it also allows time for scope creep (a la Model X) and complacency to set in. I think that's precisely why Musk imposed the July 1, 2017 date for parts readiness. Even if Tesla doesn't make deadline (which even Musk has doubts about), putting that stake in the ground shows that the company is committed, publicly and internally, to getting this car out on time for as many customers as possible and maximizing the number of US customers who may be able to take advantage of the Federal tax credit.

    Finally, Elon has already stated (even before the new schedule announcement) that Tesla will double the number of Superchargers and sales/service locations in the coming year. Whether that's adequate or timely enough to meet the increased demand remains to be seen, but they are actively working to address the issue.
     
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  10. Festerfeet

    Festerfeet Member

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    The first cars to be built will be employees cars.
    This should iron out the major manufacturing kinks before the car reaches the public.
    In an ideal world every car should be perfect but what better motivation than building your or your colleagues car and have to live with that on a day to day basis at work if it isn't quite right.
     
  11. GBleck

    GBleck Member

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    Everyone is assuming this is an announcement of an acellerated timeframe. I don't believe the timeline is at all different on starting of any steps. Only difference is the speed they add width to the pipe. Acellerated ramp up will be more complicated but I can't see it adding a large amount of risk to quality.
     
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  12. Breezy

    Breezy Member

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    They won't meet these unrealistic production numbers anyway. Making any deliveries in 2017 was already an ambitious target for a vehicle without a final design. 100,000 to 200,000 is impossible. Really.

    But after the conference call I'm convinced that they are focused on delivering the first Model 3s before the end of next year. They will make concessions in design and feature content if necessary to achieve that. Ambitious, but achieveable. In that sense I think they're making the right choice.
     
  13. zambono

    zambono Member

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    The markets don't think so, and are more on my camp.
     
  14. BluestarE3

    BluestarE3 Active Member

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    Well, if you only followed what the markets thought over the years, there wouldn't be a Tesla Motors today.
     
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  15. Raindog1

    Raindog1 Member

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    Anyone who has worked in the automotive assembly industry will understand the VAST difference in building a ICE verses a Tesla 3. Right off the hop... Lack of an instrument cluster (binnacle) and traditional buttons for HVAC, audio, etc. are a huge time saver on the model 3. The car has been simplified to make construction easier/quicker. Especially when drivetrain and battery has been finalized.
     
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  16. Jason S

    Jason S Model S Sig Perf (P85)

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    This is fallout from the Model X falcon wing door being so sketchy when finally delivered, imho -- Tesla is making sure the suppliers are able to produce the right stuff and ramping up production to meet the higher demand at the same time. If a supplier can't produce (unlikely, but not zero chance) then they'll need to move the schedule back but still keep the ramp up the same to meet the demand.

    The preorders are being treated as very real and Tesla is adjusting production goals to match.
     
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  17. TslaIsFuture

    TslaIsFuture 2 Model 3 reservations 3/31/2016

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    So many out there keep trying to beat Tesla down and say "they can't do this or that", "they will fail", we will spend big $$$$ to see him fail....haven't the bears/shorts realized anything over the years. You don't gamble against EM...you will lose. He sets high standards and very lofty goals yes but what he does end up accomplishing is never short of unbelievable. He is changing the automotive industry and space industry in ways no one ever thought possible in our lifetimes.

    He is human....he will make mistakes, get over it.
     
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  18. LectrikPower

    LectrikPower Member

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    Yeah f$&@ the "market". It only cares about the next quarter. The people, the real market, are loving Tesla.
     
  19. jsrawa

    jsrawa Member

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    This right here is exactly why Elon has confidence. The Model 3 is vastly simpler that your comparable ICE. This will dramatically speed production and limit complications.
     
  20. Red Sage

    Red Sage The Cybernetic Samurai

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    #20 Red Sage, May 7, 2016
    Last edited: May 7, 2016
    I would argue that the same number of issues will occur, and be discovered sooner, thereby, fixed sooner. The need to produce vehicles for general validation, crash testing, demos, loaners will allow Tesla Motors to discover many things right off. Fulfilling orders for internal staff immediately thereafter will give them a short line of direct communication with Customers who use the cars every day and bring the back to the factory for inspection and commentary. Filling orders for local Californians in the next stage will complete the necessary Quality Control procedures. That will allow vehicles that go to other States, and Territories to be the best they possibly can be that much sooner. And the cars that reach them will have a far greater likelihood of needing any Service beyond Delivery. The Supercharger network has already been accelerated. Don't worry about it. Everything will be fine.
    meme_-_ANIMAL HOUSE - booze22n-1-web.jpg meme_-_ANIMAL HOUSE - Remain Calm All is Well.jpg
     
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