Tesla Motors Club
Having followed both TSLA and this board closely for over 3 years, a pattern has really started coming up for me.
My sense of heightened "fear/greed" seem to quite accurately counter signal turning points in the stock, especially when the fear/greed is strong enough to make me think "this might be a time to sell/buy".
So I'm curious to what degree this happens to others on this board as well.
Do your peak emotional states of fear/greed correlate with TSLA local highs / lows?
It has been years since I bought any more TSLA stock, (and have never sold any). I view it as a long term investment.
So I'm not speaking about whether you actually DO buy/sell, just whether your emotional desire to do so has an inverse correlation to high/low turning points in stock price.
For example:
However, about 5 or 6 weeks ago, when the stock ran up past $370, I had a greed reaction of "surely it will keep doing this, ATH soon, so it might be a good time to buy more, or buy some short term call options".
I think this was a collective feeling among many people, combined with things like Elon tweeting shorts stock positions will "explode" soon.
Likewise, soon after, in the past couple of weeks and up to the ER, there had been several Elon "incidents". It was one of the first times I both had fear and also thoughts of selling run through my head. "Maybe the pressure is too much for any human or company to achieve Tesla's paradigm shifting goals in such small time period, maybe the stock is over valued like the shorts believe. Maybe my assumptions are wrong. Maybe this, maybe that, fear fear fear".
On a rational level, I understand that Tesla was pushing through MAX Q on the M3 ramp, with Elon burning out neurons and getting mental scar tissue while working 110 to 120 hour weeks, which resulted in him coping with that by some erratic behavior.
However, emotionally, I find it hard to separate the signal from the noise. Especially considering many facts can easily be interpreted as real signal which points in a negative direction.
I get the impression this fear/greed is a collective delusion which the whole market goes through, especially with a company whose share price (and potential for growth) is as volatile as Tesla. That makes the price oscillate above and below what the deep underlying signal suggests.
So if we are emotionally in tune with the market, (happens somewhat naturally if you follow Tesla/Elon), and the market goes through these swings of greed/fear, then could it be a feasible investment strategy to "buy when it feels like a REALLY horrible time to do so, sell when it feels like a REALLY horrible time to do so"?
My sense of heightened "fear/greed" seem to quite accurately counter signal turning points in the stock, especially when the fear/greed is strong enough to make me think "this might be a time to sell/buy".
So I'm curious to what degree this happens to others on this board as well.
Do your peak emotional states of fear/greed correlate with TSLA local highs / lows?
It has been years since I bought any more TSLA stock, (and have never sold any). I view it as a long term investment.
So I'm not speaking about whether you actually DO buy/sell, just whether your emotional desire to do so has an inverse correlation to high/low turning points in stock price.
For example:
However, about 5 or 6 weeks ago, when the stock ran up past $370, I had a greed reaction of "surely it will keep doing this, ATH soon, so it might be a good time to buy more, or buy some short term call options".
I think this was a collective feeling among many people, combined with things like Elon tweeting shorts stock positions will "explode" soon.
Likewise, soon after, in the past couple of weeks and up to the ER, there had been several Elon "incidents". It was one of the first times I both had fear and also thoughts of selling run through my head. "Maybe the pressure is too much for any human or company to achieve Tesla's paradigm shifting goals in such small time period, maybe the stock is over valued like the shorts believe. Maybe my assumptions are wrong. Maybe this, maybe that, fear fear fear".
On a rational level, I understand that Tesla was pushing through MAX Q on the M3 ramp, with Elon burning out neurons and getting mental scar tissue while working 110 to 120 hour weeks, which resulted in him coping with that by some erratic behavior.
However, emotionally, I find it hard to separate the signal from the noise. Especially considering many facts can easily be interpreted as real signal which points in a negative direction.
I get the impression this fear/greed is a collective delusion which the whole market goes through, especially with a company whose share price (and potential for growth) is as volatile as Tesla. That makes the price oscillate above and below what the deep underlying signal suggests.
So if we are emotionally in tune with the market, (happens somewhat naturally if you follow Tesla/Elon), and the market goes through these swings of greed/fear, then could it be a feasible investment strategy to "buy when it feels like a REALLY horrible time to do so, sell when it feels like a REALLY horrible time to do so"?