Looking at the price of calls over the next year now, they are much more expensive relative to likely SP increases than 6 months ago. Am I looking at this correctly that sentiment is that SP will rise a good deal and therefore calls (for a bull) are less attractive? I was ok spending 100 or so on a lottery ticket knowing that most would close worthless, but if I got lucky (and I did) I'd make huge returns. Now it seems like I'm risking thousands for perhaps a multiple of 2-3 on the upside.
As
@MikeC correctly pointed out, the reason the options are priced so high right now is due to IV (Implied Volatility) being way higher than usual.
From Investopedia:
- Implied volatility is the market's forecast of a likely movement in a security's price.
- Implied volatility is often used to price options contracts: High implied volatility results in options with higher premiums and vice versa.
- Supply/demand and time value are major determining factors for calculating implied volatility.
- Implied volatility increases in bearish markets and decreases when the market is bullish.
To add to the first bullet point of the above, the reason the market believes $TSLA's valuation will shift drastically in the coming months/years is because of:
- the very drastic shift in the last six months ($180 -$435);
- the fact that the run up (probably) has not found it's top yet;
- the fact that P&D numbers are about to come out;
- the fact that Q4 ER might do a lot for the stock price;
- ...
Below is the current valuation of the LEAPS expiring JAN2022. When $TSLA was around $330 I bought some JAN22 640calls at a price of $15 per contract. Those are now priced at $45,50 with an IV of 41%. When I bought them the IV was already around 38-39% since we had just run up from $180 very quickly. At the time the 640 calls were the highest strike price available. Now you can buy JAN2022 calls with strike price of $850.
All these calls have high IV right now, so only buy them if you are certain a massive run-up lies ahead.
If you are not so sure, you might want to wait until the stock price has consolidated or dropped a bit.
The best time to buy call options but especially LEAPS is:
- when the stock trades at "low" prices (might happen soon, might never happen again);
- when the stock has traded sideways for a decent amount of time.
Of course if the stock would crash to $200 on FUD you'll see me buying LEAPS like crazy, no matter the IV. But if you think the stock will stay around $400-$450 for some time you should let it trade sideways for some weeks before getting in.