I would never even consider the SR model unless you use it exclusively as a local vehicle. There are so many factors that reduce the battery range to consider (speed, temperature, degradation, 90% charging). Plus, I believe the LR would be much more desirable on the used market when you go to sell. One of the three biggest reasons for selling my MS 75D was range.
+1000
Our original Model S was going to be a 60. My wife pushed me to go with the 85 ... and I have since seriously considered upgrading to a 100.
Thus, when she pushed to have her new Model 3 be the LR version, I didn’t push back too strongly. And, now that we’ve taken it for its first road trip, I’m glad that we followed her instinct.
And, that is down here in Southern California, where we only encounter cold and snow in the mountains.
In your case, combine cold with a couple inches of snow on the roadway (plays havoc with rolling resistance) and some headwind, and you will rue the day that you bought the SR.
The other factor to keep in mind is Supercharging speed. Not only does the LR version have a higher maximum Supercharging speed, it will stay near that maximum for more rated miles before reaching the charge percentage that triggers a charge rate taper.
We saw all of these factors on our recent trip. Just moving from an S85D (265 rated, after degradation) to a 3LR (310) caused a surprisingly big improvement in our ski trip to Mammoth (300 miles and 7000-foot elevation gain).
Previously, we had to stop for 15 minutes in Mojave to assure ourselves of making the Lone Pine Supercharger and then almost 45 minutes in Lone Pine (icy walk to McDonalds and back) to be sure of conquering the uphill to Mammoth safely.
With the LR, we skipped Mojave and arrived in Lone Pine with a comfortable 75-mile cushion. We grabbed a quick brown-bagged sandwich in Lone Pine (20 minutes) and still made it to Mammoth with a 75-mile cushion.
Previously, the return trip, although downhill, required a quick dinner Supercharge stop in Mojave (20 minutes).
This time, our LR afforded us luxurious non-stop service ... door-to-door in 4:45 (same time as our old ICE), with only a couple of quick biological stops.
BUY THE LR. YOU WILL NOT REGRET IT.
If anything, give serious thought to going AWD, as well. It makes a real difference in winter. Had not last weekend been unseasonably warm and dry up in Mammoth, we would have taken my S85D, despite it’s less convenient range. Buy a car that will meet your needs for years to come. Cheaper in the long range, and less stress, to boot!