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Advice for prospective buyers and those waiting for delivery

haroldo

Member
Apr 20, 2021
236
117
NJ
I placed my order April 22. Like everyone else here, the Tesla Account estimated delivery date changed frequently, and alternated between a date range (going out as far as June 28), and a "7-10 weeks from order date" estimate.
The estimates were all wrong, I'm getting my car June 5 (only 44 days, or 6 weeks), far earlier than EVERY posted estimate, as well as the guesstimate from the sales advisor in Las Vegas.

So here's my tips and advice
  • Ignore the delivery estimate, the car will get there when it gets there. It's not a DoorDash delivery you can track via GPS. Most likely your car will be available sooner than estimated (the second* rule of sales is under promise, over deliver)
  • Don't fret over spreadsheets, estimates, rumors (they deliver by end of quarter, etc.). Everyone likes to scientifically calculate future events. This is the production and delivery of a car, there are far too many variables to extrapolate a specific date
  • When your car is ready, they'll contact you with a link to schedule your car pickup. If the dates aren't convenient, call your local service center, they'll easily find another date and time. My choices were between Monday June 8 through Thursday June 11. When I called, they said I could come in Saturday June 5 (a date that was not available on the scheduling webpage). They were very accommodative
  • Rebates and other incentives are nice, but can be illusory. Prices can, and will change (and usually in one direction...up). See Elon Musk Reveals Why Tesla Prices Have Been Creeping Up | Digital Trends(tweeted yesterday)
    • I contemplated delaying my order to take advantage of NJ's EV Rebate, possibly available for purchases made as of July 1. Instead of a resumption of last year's $5,000 EV Rebate, it now appears NJ might offer a $2,000 rebate (for cars over a certain MSRP, which includes the Long Range version I ordered). In the weeks since I placed my order, the cost of my car has risen by $2,000. I anticipate Tesla will continue with their every other Friday $500 price hike pattern. (especially after the above linked comment form Elon Musk)
      • Basic math $2,000 rebate minus $2000 price hikes (so far) =$0 incentive
    • Waiting for the Federal incentive can, similarly, prove illusory. Who knows if, or when, Congress will agree, and what it will look like, etc. The sausage making process isn't pretty, impossible to predict, and contains a lot of wish list items that end up getting swapped out.
    • Don't make a decision based on hearsay, rumor, or worse... completely avoid any forum postings that start with "I heard...". I saw one post saying their Sales Advisor suggested the Federal incentive might be retroactive. I don't know, but it seems illogical to tax one group of people so the Feds can offer an incentive to another group of people who had already decided to pay for the car. That's not an incentive, that's insanity (but I digress).
      • And what does a call center Sales Advisor know about the inner workings of a bill being contemplated in Congress???
    • Bottom line, waiting for an incentive is like waiting for Apple's next newer, shinier, faster, lighter iPhone with a better battery, weighs 1.4 grams less, and has a 75MP camera with 8 lenses (now offered in hot pink)!! There's always a better deal to wait for.
Good luck to you all! You'll (hopefully) enjoy many good years of driving, and down the road (pun intended), you won't remember the few weeks spent waiting.

So, to all in this sub-forum, sayonara, I'll see you in the other forums :)


* in case you were wondering, the first rule of sales is "the customer is always right"
 
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sychotix

Member
Apr 28, 2021
34
22
South Carolina
Counter point to your order dates being worthless... you were one of the lucky ones date-wise. People in mid to late march only recently started getting their cars too. Giving advice based on your date only is a bit misleading... that is why there is a spreadsheet to track trends is important.

I can certainly agree that refreshing the estimate every day is overkill though... even though I did it.
 
  • Like
Reactions: haroldo

haroldo

Member
Apr 20, 2021
236
117
NJ
you were one of the lucky ones date-wise
I'd be willing to bet that 50% will get their cars before the estimated date, and 50% will get it after.
But, in all areas...bad news travels fast.
The forums are chock full of people complaining that their car haven't been delivered, but how many "I got mine early" posts (like I'm doing here) will you see?
Many/most buyers are not visiting forums (they sold >half a million cars last year) Few, if any will take the time and post. I did so to introduce a sense of calm, and hope, to those suffering from (delivery date) range anxiety 😜
 

sychotix

Member
Apr 28, 2021
34
22
South Carolina
I'd be willing to bet that 50% will get their cars before the estimated date, and 50% will get it after.
But, in all areas...bad news travels fast.
The forums are chock full of people complaining that their car haven't been delivered, but how many "I got mine early" posts (like I'm doing here) will you see?
Many/most buyers are not visiting forums (they sold >half a million cars last year) Few, if any will take the time and post. I did so to introduce a sense of calm, and hope, to those suffering from (delivery date) range anxiety 😜

Well the thing is, we have a spreadsheet to track those that get theirs early and those that don't. If your bet of 50% get it early, 50% get it after is true, then their estimates are good. You want your estimate to be the average delivery time, unless you have further reason to modify it like a delay in shipment of a critical piece. You typically under promise over deliver too, so show a longer date range if you can.

Per the spreadsheet, the average order to delivery is 49 days or 7 weeks lining up with the low end of your estimate. I ordered mid april and am picking up soon... so I'm at about 60 days or 8.5 weeks. Those that were less fortunate and ordered mid march add a good 4 weeks onto that at 12.5 weeks. Your delivery is 44 days, which is slightly under the average.

My best guess for the delay past average is both Covid shortages and the delay in releasing of cars due to the Telsa Vision software update.
 

makirules

Member
Mar 22, 2021
441
292
Arkansas
Counter point to your order dates being worthless... you were one of the lucky ones date-wise. People in mid to late march only recently started getting their cars too. Giving advice based on your date only is a bit misleading... that is why there is a spreadsheet to track trends is important.

I can certainly agree that refreshing the estimate every day is overkill though... even though I did it.
Ordered march 22nd... I don't even have a VIN yet. I will probably get mine on week 14 of the estimated 1-13 weeks it said when I ordered it.
 
  • Like
Reactions: PerfectNumber
May 6, 2018
191
83
Fort Mill, SC
I placed my order April 22. Like everyone else here, the Tesla Account estimated delivery date changed frequently, and alternated between a date range (going out as far as June 28), and a "7-10 weeks from order date" estimate.
The estimates were all wrong, I'm getting my car June 5 (only 44 days, or 6 weeks), far earlier than EVERY posted estimate, as well as the guesstimate from the sales advisor in Las Vegas.

So here's my tips and advice
  • Ignore the delivery estimate, the car will get there when it gets there. It's not a DoorDash delivery you can track via GPS. Most likely your car will be available sooner than estimated (the second* rule of sales is under promise, over deliver)
  • Don't fret over spreadsheets, estimates, rumors (they deliver by end of quarter, etc.). Everyone likes to scientifically calculate future events. This is the production and delivery of a car, there are far too many variables to extrapolate a specific date
  • When your car is ready, they'll contact you with a link to schedule your car pickup. If the dates aren't convenient, call your local service center, they'll easily find another date and time. My choices were between Monday June 8 through Thursday June 11. When I called, they said I could come in Saturday June 5 (a date that was not available on the scheduling webpage). They were very accommodative
  • Rebates and other incentives are nice, but can be illusory. Prices can, and will change (and usually in one direction...up). See Elon Musk Reveals Why Tesla Prices Have Been Creeping Up | Digital Trends(tweeted yesterday)
    • I contemplated delaying my order to take advantage of NJ's EV Rebate, possibly available for purchases made as of July 1. Instead of a resumption of last year's $5,000 EV Rebate, it now appears NJ might offer a $2,000 rebate (for cars over a certain MSRP, which includes the Long Range version I ordered). In the weeks since I placed my order, the cost of my car has risen by $2,000. I anticipate Tesla will continue with their every other Friday $500 price hike pattern. (especially after the above linked comment form Elon Musk)
      • Basic math $2,000 rebate minus $2000 price hikes (so far) =$0 incentive
    • Waiting for the Federal incentive can, similarly, prove illusory. Who knows if, or when, Congress will agree, and what it will look like, etc. The sausage making process isn't pretty, impossible to predict, and contains a lot of wish list items that end up getting swapped out.
    • Don't make a decision based on hearsay, rumor, or worse... completely avoid any forum postings that start with "I heard...". I saw one post saying their Sales Advisor suggested the Federal incentive might be retroactive. I don't know, but it seems illogical to tax one group of people so the Feds can offer an incentive to another group of people who had alreadydecided to pay for the car. That's not an incentive, that's insanity (but I digress).
      • And what does a call center Sales Advisor know about the inner workings of a bill being contemplated in Congress???
    • Bottom line, waiting for an incentive is like waiting for Apple's next newer, shinier, faster, lighter iPhone with a better battery, weighs 1.4 grams less, and has a 75MP camera with 8 lenses (now offered in hot pink)!! There's always a better deal to wait for.
Good luck to you all! You'll (hopefully) enjoy many good years of driving, and down the road (pun intended), you won't remember the few weeks spent waiting.

So, to all in this sub-forum, sayonara, I'll see you in the other forums :)


* in case you were wondering, the first rule of sales is "the customer is always right"
well said!.....its not my first Tesla, but my S was from private sale....no wait...waiting on M3P....been killing me!..
 

haroldo

Member
Apr 20, 2021
236
117
NJ
.waiting on M3P....been killing me!..
AWatchedPotNeverBoils1-1024x917.jpg


Trust me, you'll get it soon enough!
Got mine Saturday and the memory of 'wait anxiety' disappeared
 

techlogik

Member
Mar 22, 2021
240
136
FL
^Never understood this saying, I watch pots of water come to a boil all the time, several days a week probably. Physics.
 

dtcjem

New Member
Jul 19, 2021
1
0
Southern New Hampshire
Hello all. I am new here and getting ready to order......very excited I must say. I live in New Hampshire and will have to pick up in NJ to to tax implications of picking up in Mass. Has anyone had to do this and is there any problems.....aside from a four hour drive to NJ?
 

holeydonut

Supporting Member
Jun 27, 2020
1,866
1,253
East Bay NorCal
Counter point to your order dates being worthless... you were one of the lucky ones date-wise. People in mid to late march only recently started getting their cars too. Giving advice based on your date only is a bit misleading... that is why there is a spreadsheet to track trends is important.

I can certainly agree that refreshing the estimate every day is overkill though... even though I did it.


But did you change your TMC avatar to be a squirrel? I've refreshed 20 times today... the Squirrel isn't working :(
 

jayg

Member
Jul 17, 2021
7
4
San Diego
I agree that one can't rely on certain bills that are in progress but there are some dates that can be inferred. The big infrastructure bill that will include electric vehicles will have to be passed by budget reconciliation since they don't have enough votes to get past a filibuster. If it is to be done this year which is what the Democrats want, it will have to be done before October.
 

haroldo

Member
Apr 20, 2021
236
117
NJ
In the weeks since I placed my order, the cost of my car has risen by $2,000. I anticipate Tesla will continue with their every other Friday $500 price hike pattern. …
Oops they did it again
Tesla (TSLA) increases Model 3 and Model Y prices again

and why not, there’s a ridiculous new and used car shortage, component prices are rising, Tesla has never advertised (on television) yet they have a three month (??) waiting list… they’d be foolish not to let the basic laws of supply and demand dictate the price.
They could increase prices by $3000-5000 and people might still line up to buy the car (is there really much of a difference at that price point?)
 
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