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After reading this article...I am buying TSLA stock on Monday at $55 (well, maybe)

Discussion in 'TSLA Investor Discussions' started by PorscheDealer, May 5, 2013.

  1. PorscheDealer

    PorscheDealer Member

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    http://www.proactiveinvestors.com/columns/casey-research/3822/what-is-tesla-motors-worth-3822.html

    After telling myself that I am going to put my money where my mouth is...I feel that I lost the opportunity to buy Tesla around the low 30's when I put in my initial reservation for an "S" in late Novemeber. Once I picked up my S P85 on March 1st and the stock was in the upper $30's I told myself that I would wait for a pullback to the low to mid $30's and then definitely pick up a 1000 shares and hold it long term. Here it is, May 5th, and it never went down to my "buy price" and thus I never bought any shares... and today it is trading near $55 and Im kicking myself.
     
  2. hershey101

    hershey101 Member

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    Uh... Please don't go all in at $55. Its skyrocketed over the past 2 weeks b/c of a temporary short squeeze. I think the stock's true value is around $45, but it seems to have found good short-term support around $51. Buying at 52-week highs two days before a very important Q1 release when the share price reflects overly optimistic viewpoints is probably not the best option.
    Nevertheless, if you are determined to buy now, please use limit orders, and maybe buy only 400 shares or so, so that you can pick it up at a cheaper price if it falls Thursday (which it most likely will).

    Also,
    Mods please move this to Investor Discussions if possible so other investors can see the post and comment.
    Thanks
     
  3. bonnie

    bonnie Oil is for sissies.

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    Already moved to the proper subforum. :)
     
  4. CapitalistOppressor

    CapitalistOppressor Active Member

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    The rule is buy the rumor, sell the news. We are most definitely in the "rumor" stage right now, but the news is coming on Wednesday.

    My current guess is that earnings will be higher than forecast, but current production is less than a lot of people (especially in the press) have baked in right now. Future earnings almost always wins the fight against past earnings, no matter how good. Based on that theory, I'd sell my stock today based on the actual data I have, and I certainly wouldn't buy any.

    However, I have the luxury of holding until the earnings report, and I plan on doing so. My data is all from the past, and its possible that Elon might announce amazing reservation rates since his recent announcements, which will result in a near term increase in production. That would put future earnings back in play potentially.

    But would I buy right now on that theory? No.

    Maybe I'm wrong and you'll lose out as the stock hops a ride on the next Falcon 9 rocket. But I think that a lower production rate beats magic pixie dust 9 times out of 10. I'm gonna try and stick around to at least get a glance at the pixie dust, but my loss tolerance from these levels is very low right now.
     
  5. Volker.Berlin

    Volker.Berlin Member

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    Buy some now to get into the game, but keep a sizable chunk of cash to buy more if/when it dips. Disclosure: I'm already in and I'll hold (at least) til after the earnings call. I bought in many small chunks and thus averaged out on the buying price. Obviously, the average price I achieved isn't ideal, but it's not too bad, either. The strategy saved me a couple sleepless nights...
     
  6. Volker.Berlin

    Volker.Berlin Member

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    I was generally surprised how well this rule explained the TSLA behaviour, but it's worth noting that it did not apply to the last earnings call.
     
  7. Norbert

    Norbert TSLA will win

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    Doesn't this mean that you prefer to have a certain amount of TSLA over having none, at the current market price? Or are you just too comfortable to click on "sell"? ;)

    So why wouldn't you buy if you had the money instead of the shares? Inertia? Difference between being human and being logical? ;)
     
  8. cwerdna

    cwerdna Active Member

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    #8 cwerdna, May 6, 2013
    Last edited: May 6, 2013
    If you know something about trading options, you could possibly pick some up at a discount by selling some relatively near dated ATM or OTM puts instead. There are some weeklys that expire this Friday (5/10) and there are the regular monthly options that expire the Friday after that. Their IV is very high right now due to the almost certainly because of the impending earnings call.

    If TSLA spikes, you won't have any stock but at least those puts could be closed out cheaper or expire worthless and you'll have pocketed the premium.

    Looking at current prices, if you sold a 2nd week of May 54.5 strike put, you'll probably collect $330. If TSLA closes above 54.5 by expiration and you hold until expiration, the put expires worthless and you have $330 in your pocket.

    If you hold until expiration and it TSLA closes below $54.50 you'll have 100 shares put to you at $54.50/share (no matter where it's at, even $0) but save $330 (in total) off the purchase. This doesn't include commissions or assignment fees.
     
  9. CapitalistOppressor

    CapitalistOppressor Active Member

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    Probably partly this.

    I haven't been trying to actively manage the stock for a month now. Also, I've spent a fair portion of the last month thinking the production rate was higher than it is. I was becoming suspicious, and it kept looking soft, but it was highly uncertain even when I looked at it 2 weeks ago. They went from ~7,300 deliveries (the last reliable number) to an upper limit around ~8,800 at the end of March when they skipped ahead, and so even a 500/week rate would fit in until basically the last week of April.

    Having those expectations dashed earlier today when I ran the numbers made me bitter, lol.

    But there is a clear pro argument for staying. There is nothing pixie dustish about wads of cash. If you think Elon is about to roll up to the May 8th meeting in his new Model $$, decked out in his pimpin suit and smokin Cuban cigars wrapped in T-Bills printed on gold flake, then you can expect the stock to take a nice move up again. It's a real possibility (especially the cigars).
     
  10. CapitalistOppressor

    CapitalistOppressor Active Member

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    Well, I hope you didn't take my advice at least. Certainly didn't see a 9% rise coming today after bouncing around $51-$54 for the past week. At this point, I really honestly don't know what to think. Having it get back to $49 would take some doing now.
     
  11. K Hall

    K Hall Member

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    Momentum has no logic and is very fickled. Ride the bull as it rages but expect and plan for it to turn.

    As it passed $60 today I am at a loss to try to guess when that will be but am very happy to keep riding this bull.

    We are so far up now so what if it pulls back 5 - 15% on Thursday. If you are happy with your gains then take them down tomorrow.

    If you are willing to invest 15% for more potential upside then let them ride. I never optimize at the top or bottom of the buy sell. I do believe that the stock will be higher than this point in January 2014.

    Our world is imprecise so don't drive your self crazy seeking precision. My conservatism has left a couple of P85+'s value on the table. But I am thrilled with the two that the stock has paid for.

    K Hall
     
  12. CapitalistOppressor

    CapitalistOppressor Active Member

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    Me too. If you are in for the long haul $60 will be cheap. Just might take awhile to prove that.
     
  13. PorscheDealer

    PorscheDealer Member

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    YEP...missed it...again! My buy order never took today and all I saw was everyone else making money on this baby besides me!
     
  14. caddieo

    caddieo Member

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    I love the car so went for the long haul. Never did pay attention to all the stock manipulation schemes. If I sell now, it will cover almost half the cost of the S. Maybe I'll hang on some more and plan on adding an X.
     
  15. ENZA

    ENZA Member

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    i hope the op picked up some tsla at the time of this post...
     
  16. jhm

    jhm Active Member

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    Wow, it's interesting to see all the caution about not buying to much at this price. In hindsight, $55 was an excellent price to go all in and hold on tight. Perhaps a few years from now we'll look back at $221 on July 3, 2014, and think, damn I should have just gone for it.
     

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