After what time has passed would you consider an FSD class action lawsuit?

[calikid]

And what type of reimbursement would you expect?
By FSD, I mean full hands off autonomy & sleeping in your car. Not beta.

I would expect to see ANY kind of return on the $10,000 I spent on FSD for my '21 Plaid and now the $12,000 I am paying on in my '22 Plaid. Not asking for full atonomy, but I am definitely expecting to be in the beta when I have spent that kind of money and been waiting, and waiting and waiting. Think about the people that have paid for FSD YEARS ago, paid off the car, traded it in, sold it, etc and received ZERO benefit for the money they paid. How about if I charge you to paint your house and you pay me upfront, I tell you for the next few years that I am learning and getting my technique down but I will deliver it to you one day. In the meantime, I come over and "practice" on your house and paint some of it here and there. Would you be cool with that? Should you be able to charge for something you don't actually have right now? Not to mention, over the years the equipment has changed and been upgraded. Even my '22 refreshed Plaid looks like it is about to be outdated if this HD radar rumor becomes to fruition. It's a constantly changing finish line and that is what I personally am bothered by.

 

[Dewg]

Maybe I'm late to the discussion, so forgive my ignorance. Lots of numbers about take rates, but no context. For every car that's sold, with or without EAP/FSD, where is the data on WHY the person made that choice?

Was it too expensive for the feature set?
Were they a repeat buyer who purchased EAP/FSD previously before AP was included in all cars, and they just wanted AP?
Was the rising cost of the car at the upper limit of their budget, and they just can't afford EAP/FSD at any price?
Did they not know about the features?
Did they simply not care about the features?
Did they previously have EAP/FSD and decided not to purchase again because they didn't find value?
Did they want the features, but found media/forums with negative reviews and decided against it?

Perhaps the context is irrelevant to your discussion. If so, my apologies.

 

[Knightshade]

“A little over two years ago, about 53% of all Tesla buyers drove home in a vehicle with FSD.

Not sure what you're quoting, but it's demonstrably false per the Troy data already posted.

The peak was 46% and 43% in Q2 and Q3 of 2019.

And THOSE were MUCH higher than before- or after- because it's when they did the weird transition of EAP/FSD to AP/FSD- AND when they ran the fire sale where you could get it for 2k.

So cherry picking those 2 quarters (and then lying about the % even then) is.... par for the course for you I guess, but not useful in any honest debate (also par for you).


It could be you were trying to further cherry pick to just north america... but even then the peak was 51% not 53 and was more than THREE years ago, not just over 2.

And again that peak was the weird transition period... it was MUCH lower both before AND after that.

In fact the NA take rate last quarter was HIGHER than it was in say Q2 2018 if you wanna keep doing weird cherry picks.

As of the end of Q4, that number had dropped to just 14%. FSD opt-in has dropped continuously over the past nine quarters.”

This too is pretty dishonest (and out of date).

For example it "dropped" from Q3 to Q4 by one percent

And then recovered back to the Q3 number in Q1 of this year.

And STAYED there in Q2 of this year.

So no- it hasn't dropped continuously... or really at all... going back almost a year now (full year if stays about the same for Q3 when we know that in a few weeks).

And again Q2 2022 was higher take rate than Q2 2018 was.

 

[gearchruncher]

Every time Tesla sells FSD today, it's really a liability. They know they can't do real FSD on that hardware, nor any time soon on any hardware, and the longer this goes, the more they are exposed to a successful lawsuit or regulatory issues. The fewer people that have it, the better.

It's super clear it's a liability right now - even today, if you pay $15K, there's no guarantee that you'll get let in to the "beta." The only reason to do this is to minimize Tesla's exposure.

Selling only 6% of cars is good for them- just enough that it "exists" but with out all the issues a 25% take rate would have. Plus, by charging $15K for it, they find only the staunchest and richest supporters, who are unlikely to complain or sue. And they have banked some $$$ for the inevitable hardware updates that will be needed. It's a pretty smart plan, very much in the "fake it till you make it" ethos of Silicon Valley.

 

[Knightshade]

Every time Tesla sells FSD today, it's really a liability. They know they can't do real FSD on that hardware, nor any time soon on any hardware, and the longer this goes, the more they are exposed to a successful lawsuit or regulatory issues. The fewer people that have it, the better.

Again this is demonstrably false if you consider they're selling L2 city streets ONLY today as FSD, which already exists and 100k people are using daily

 

[EVNow]

Market decides value...not me...not Elon.

Duh.

Whats your estimate ? If you search my old posts you will see a spreadsheet template I used to calculate … around $200k, IIRC.

 

[gearchruncher]

I would expect to see ANY kind of return on the $10,000 I spent on FSD for my '21 Plaid and now the $12,000 I am paying on in my '22 Plaid. ..... Even my '22 refreshed Plaid looks like it is about to be outdated if this HD radar rumor becomes to fruition. It's a constantly changing finish line and that is what I personally am bothered by.

Can I ask why you paid $10K last year and now $12K this year if you knew all of this and are bothered by it?
Paying $22K for FSD in a 1 year period on Tesla's very newest cars isn't exactly teaching them a lesson.
Well, it is teaching them a lesson, just not a good one.

 

[dbldwn02]

Duh.

Whats your estimate ? If you search my old posts you will see a spreadsheet template I used to calculate … around $200k, IIRC.

Too many variables/unknowns. If they took full responsibility for level 4/5 accidents, then a lot. If they don't take responsibility, then probably $0, since your insurance will go through the roof. This is just one of many variables that can't be predicted.

 

[bradtem]

Which is probably why I literally pointed that out in the post you quoted

I looked for that, and missed it because it was an after-note. Chill

I did mention there was no drop when the price went from 10k to 12k though, which we've got lots of data on in there.


The other important thing to note is this chart is only people who are buying at time of vehicle purchase, it does not capture those who buy FSD post-delivery... and it does not include anybody accessing FSD via subscription (which Tesla would probably prefer people do long term anyway) so total take rate is higher than suggested in the chart- though we have no data to conclude if it's significantly higher or not.

I don't know how he gets the data but if it's from tools like Teslafi, where huge numbers of vehicles tell the app all about them (including what software revisions they have, ie. do they have FSD or not) then they would get data on post delivery and subscription, but might not be able to tell them apart.

 

[gearchruncher]

I don't know how he gets the data but if it's from tools like Teslafi, where huge numbers of vehicles tell the app all about them (including what software revisions they have, ie. do they have FSD or not) then they would get data on post delivery and subscription, but might not be able to tell them apart.

If it relies on any kind of opt-in tool, it's also going to suffer from selection bias.
Seems pretty likely that people that manually sign up for and use TeslaFi (or any service) are more likely to be tech forward, and thus buy FSD in a larger percentage as well.

 

[Knightshade]

I looked for that, and missed it because it was an after-note. Chill

I don't know how he gets the data but if it's from tools like Teslafi, where huge numbers of vehicles tell the app all about them (including what software revisions they have, ie. do they have FSD or not) then they would get data on post delivery and subscription, but might not be able to tell them apart.

It's data collected from folks regarding what config they ordered.

He has used the same data for years to predict vehicle delivery dates

It's certainly not perfect data, but it has been surprisingly close to correct the few times we've had much "real" info from Tesla, and at least back when I had mine on order his estimate of delivery date was WAY more accurate than the one Tesla had originally given

But it does mean it doesn't capture any info about post-delivery purchases or subscriptions.

 

[bradtem]

It's data collected from folks regarding what config they ordered.

He has used the same data for years to predict vehicle delivery dates

It's certainly not perfect data, but it has been surprisingly close to correct the few times we've had much "real" info from Tesla, and at least back when I had mine on order his estimate of delivery date was WAY more accurate than the one Tesla had originally given

But it does mean it doesn't capture any info about post-delivery purchases or subscriptions.

There will indeed be bias in any non random sample. Sometimes you can combine different sources. For example apps with api keys can notice people who get FSD after enabling the app, which could reveal something basic

 

[calikid]

Can I ask why you paid $10K last year and now $12K this year if you knew all of this and are bothered by it?
Paying $22K for FSD in a 1 year period on Tesla's very newest cars isn't exactly teaching them a lesson.
Well, it is teaching them a lesson, just not a good one.

When buying such an expensive vehicle, an additional $10,000 or $12,000 spread out over several years is equal to just dollars per month on the payment. I obviously keep faith that they’re going to get this wrapped up and that I just had some bad luck on my last one. I know that if they flip the switch tomorrow and turned FSD on for everybody, I wouldn’t want to come out of my pocket with a lump sum of $12,000 or throw $12,000 onto a credit card. I’d rather it just be built into the loan. I’m not claiming it’s my best move, but it’s what I did.

 

[gearchruncher]

When buying such an expensive vehicle, an additional $10,000 or $12,000 spread out over several years is equal to just dollars per month on the payment.

$15,000 (FSD price today) is $280 per month on a 60 month loan. Basically $10 a day for 5 years straight. You have a different definition of "a few dollars per month" than I do....

Meanwhile, Tesla will let you subscribe to FSD for $200 a month.

The fact that you're "bothered" by Tesla's policies and behaviors here, yet still bought it, shows how powerful Elon's FOMO messaging is. What other products do we buy where we're like "yeah, give me that $280 a month for 5 years deal, even though you may never ship anything! Sure don't want to have to pay for it if it ever does actually ship..."???

 

[DarkandStormy]

As for Full Self-Driving, the lawsuit backs its claims of fraud using this 2016 video released by Tesla — and still featured on its website —Reportedly, former Tesla engineers that were there for the video’s production claimed the car used a pre-charted and 3D mapped route — technology that is not built into any production Tesla.

Tesla video promoting self-driving was staged, engineer testifies

A 2016 video that Tesla used to promote its self-driving technology was staged to show capabilities like stopping at a red light and accelerating at a green light that the system did not have, according to testimony by a senior engineer.

www.reuters.com

A Tesla engineer testified in a July deposition (first time being made public now) that that's exactly what happened.

When asked if the 2016 video showed the performance of the Tesla Autopilot system available in a production car at the time, Elluswamy said, "It does not."

Elluswamy was deposed in a lawsuit against Tesla over a 2018 crash in Mountain View, California, that killed Apple engineer Walter Huang.

The Tesla technology is designed to assist with steering, braking, speed and lane changes but its features “do not make the vehicle autonomous,” the company says on its website.

To create the video, the Tesla used 3D mapping on a predetermined route from a house in Menlo Park, California, to Tesla’s then-headquarters in Palo Alto, he said.

Drivers intervened to take control in test runs, he said. When trying to show the Model X could park itself with no driver, a test car crashed into a fence in Tesla’s parking lot, he said.

“The intent of the video was not to accurately portray what was available for customers in 2016. It was to portray what was possible to build into the system,” Elluswamy said, according to a transcript of his testimony seen by Reuters.

When Tesla released the video, Musk tweeted, “Tesla drives itself (no human input at all) thru urban streets to highway to streets, then finds a parking spot.”

 

[Jigglypuff]

Tesla video promoting self-driving was staged, engineer testifies

A 2016 video that Tesla used to promote its self-driving technology was staged to show capabilities like stopping at a red light and accelerating at a green light that the system did not have, according to testimony by a senior engineer.

www.reuters.com

A Tesla engineer testified in a July deposition (first time being made public now) that that's exactly what happened.

Is anybody surprised? All one has to do is try autopilot to realize how far from autonomy Tesla is. Not even in the same galaxy.

 

[DarkandStormy]

Is anybody surprised? All one has to do is try autopilot to realize how far from autonomy Tesla is. Not even in the same galaxy.

So your thoughts on the "driver is only there for legal reasons" video?

 

[dbldwn02]

So your thoughts on the "driver is only there for legal reasons" video?

Not much different than Nikola rolling a truck down a hill and look what happened there.

 

[Jigglypuff]

So your thoughts on the "driver is only there for legal reasons" video?

I think it's fraud. Musk is a liar. Tesla lies. Cigarette companies lie. Oil companies lie. VW lies. All in about equal proportions. All have led to deaths with their lies. Granted, some have killed more than others by a few orders of magnitude. I'm just not shocked or surprised. Musk's and Tesla's lies are apparent within seconds of using autopilot.

 

[legendsk]

IIRC when I signed the flurry of paperwork buying my MY, deep in the fine print was a whole paragraph about any dispute with Tesla about anything would be resolved with mediation, not lawsuits. I assume, having read and agreed to that, I am bound by that agreement and considering any lawsuit, class action or not, is moot?