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Curt Renz

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Mar 5, 2013
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Bloomberg - this afternoon: Apple’s Self-Driving Electric Car Is at Least Half a Decade Away

Excerpt:

Still, some Apple engineers on the project believe the company could release a product in five to seven years if Apple goes ahead with its plans. The car is nowhere near production stage, the people said, though they did warn timelines could change. They asked not to be identified discussing sensitive, internal work. The majority of the team is currently either working from home or at the office for limited time, slowing the company’s ability to develop a full vehicle. An Apple spokesman declined to comment.
 
Bloomberg - this afternoon: Apple’s Self-Driving Electric Car Is at Least Half a Decade Away

Excerpt:

Still, some Apple engineers on the project believe the company could release a product in five to seven years if Apple goes ahead with its plans. The car is nowhere near production stage, the people said, though they did warn timelines could change. They asked not to be identified discussing sensitive, internal work. The majority of the team is currently either working from home or at the office for limited time, slowing the company’s ability to develop a full vehicle. An Apple spokesman declined to comment.

Late in 2020, Apple also hired another former Tesla vice president, Stuart Bowers, according to a person familiar with the move. He led Tesla’s self-driving technology team until mid-2019 and was an executive-in-residence at venture capital firm Greylock Partners until July, according to his LinkedIn profile.

Stuart Bowers was the one who spoke at the end of battery day. He seemed very talented and much needed. I think he did great while at Tesla and the world is better place for his contribution.

 
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Late in 2020, Apple also hired another former Tesla vice president, Stuart Bowers, according to a person familiar with the move. He led Tesla’s self-driving technology team until mid-2019 and was an executive-in-residence at venture capital firm Greylock Partners until July, according to his LinkedIn profile.

Stuart Bowers was the one who spoke at the end of battery day. He seemed very talented and much needed. I think he did great while at Tesla and the world is better place for his contribution.


That was autonomy day ... back in 2019.

Edit: We got Karpathy in exchange. Thank goodness!
 


Apple is planning to work with Hyundai on the upcoming Apple Car, according to a report from Korean site Korea Economic Daily.

The report suggests that Apple is in negotiations with Hyundai Motor Group to manufacture an ‌Apple Car‌. Apple is said to be planning to work with Hyundai to produce electric vehicles and develop batteries due to the "enormous costs" of the technology and the necessary production facilities.

Multiple prior rumors have suggested that Apple will work with a manufacturing partner to produce the ‌Apple Car‌, but until now, there hasn't been word on which manufacturer Apple might team up with. Since the report mentions "negotiations," a deal may not be established as of yet, so Apple's plans could change.

An ‌Apple Car‌ report earlier today from Bloomberg said that work on the project is still in the early stages and "nowhere near production stage," nor was there a mention of Hyundai. According to Bloomberg, it will be at least five to seven years before an ‌Apple Car‌ is ready to launch.

Update: In a statement to CNBC, Hyundai confirmed that it is in discussions with Apple. "We understand that Apple is in discussion with a variety of global automakers, including Hyundai Motor. As the discussion is at its early stage, nothing has been decided."

Related Roundup: Apple Car
 
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Apple is planning to work with Hyundai on the upcoming Apple Car, according to a report from Korean site Korea Economic Daily.

The report suggests that Apple is in negotiations with Hyundai Motor Group to manufacture an ‌Apple Car‌. Apple is said to be planning to work with Hyundai to produce electric vehicles and develop batteries due to the "enormous costs" of the technology and the necessary production facilities.

Multiple prior rumors have suggested that Apple will work with a manufacturing partner to produce the ‌Apple Car‌, but until now, there hasn't been word on which manufacturer Apple might team up with. Since the report mentions "negotiations," a deal may not be established as of yet, so Apple's plans could change.

An ‌Apple Car‌ report earlier today from Bloomberg said that work on the project is still in the early stages and "nowhere near production stage," nor was there a mention of Hyundai. According to Bloomberg, it will be at least five to seven years before an ‌Apple Car‌ is ready to launch.

Update: In a statement to CNBC, Hyundai confirmed that it is in discussions with Apple. "We understand that Apple is in discussion with a variety of global automakers, including Hyundai Motor. As the discussion is at its early stage, nothing has been decided."

Related Roundup: Apple Car

They’re really just going to outsource their Apple car huh.....congrats Apple on splitting the profits :rolleyes:. Cause car makers are not going to be treated like you treat Foxconn in terms of profit split.
 
They’re really just going to outsource their Apple car huh.....congrats Apple on splitting the profits :rolleyes:. Cause car makers are not going to be treated like you treat Foxconn in terms of profit split.

Last thing we heard, Apple was using lidar and probably 3-D maps...

Even if they sort out the car manufacture, batteries, sensor suite, software etc, I can't see where they are getting the training data to solve vision.

It may happen mainly because car makers realize they need help with software and FSD, and the flip side is Apple has no current ability to make or distribute cars. So there is synergy there, but not the kind of synergy that seems likely to deliver a timely FSD competitor.
It all seems to be happening about 5 years too late.
 

I'm beginning to think this "Tesla Graveyard" at Apple is run by someone at Apple with a lot of seniority and this person and everyone underneath is simply milking the project while they collect their Apple stock options. It certainly doesn't seem like a fire has been lit underneath these people and the person running it must have some sway within the company and/or know how to string a project along. Because any development effort that slow can't hope to succeed. The market moves faster than their development effort (or lack thereof).

My interest in this is simply morbid curiosity. The Tesla Graveyard where all the washed up auto engineers end up. I bet the pay and working conditions are pretty sweet. They can probably read TMC at work and watch their TSLA and AAPL shares appreciate. If anyone in the Tesla Graveyard is reading this, HIYA! :D
 
That was autonomy day ... back in 2019.

Edit: We got Karpathy in exchange. Thank goodness!
Yeah, my bad. Karpathy was there already, we got him in exchange for Chris Lattner( who we got from Apple but was later kicked by Musk because Musk wanted to go allin on software 2.0).

Anyway, lots of top talent in lead positions switching between the major companies in the field. I assume Tesla has a lot easier time attracting talent at current market cap and vehicles delivered.
 
So here is my prediction:

Apple will work with multiple car manufacturers. Apple will offer a FSD/infotainment solution, Apple puts a bunch of iPhone-type cameras and iPhone type-Lidars around the car, an iPad in the center console and a HW3-style computer that does NN-inference, GSM for upgrades/maps, wifi etc. Later Apple will be releasing extra car entertainment products such as game controlers, iPad-holders for car seats, car speakers etc.

Car companies will get:
1. Apple infotainment
2. Not falling behind on FSD
3. Some profit sharing with Apple

Apple will get:
1. Profit from selling hardware
2. Profit from selling FSD software services
3. IOS in cars with appstore and services revenue
4. Tons of data they can use for some purpose in the future, automagically transferred from car->iphone->wifi->cloud.

Apple’s demand will basically be that cameras/Lidar placement have to get a complete 360° view with slight overlap. There will be an app that car manufacturer can try that will verify that the placement is good enough, basically drive 1km in a city, the program will run and see if it gets enough overlap. Given that Apple will be able to verify that the data is good enough for their purposes.
 
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So here is my prediction:

Apple will work with multiple car manufacturers. Apple will offer a FSD/infotainment solution, Apple puts a bunch of iPhone-type cameras and iPhone type-Lidars around the car, an iPad in the center console and a HW3-style computer that does NN-inference, GSM for upgrades/maps, wifi etc. Later Apple will be releasing extra car entertainment products such as game controlers, iPad-holders for car seats, car speakers etc.

Car companies will get:
1. Apple infotainment
2. Not falling behind on FSD
3. Some profit sharing with Apple

Apple will get:
1. Profit from selling hardware
2. Profit from selling FSD software services
3. IOS in cars with appstore and services revenue
4. Tons of data they can use for some purpose in the future, automagically transferred from car->iphone->wifi->cloud.

Apple’s demand will basically be that cameras/Lidar placement have to get a complete 360° view with slight overlap. There will be an app that car manufacturer can try that will verify that the placement is good enough, basically drive 1km in a city, the program will run and see if it gets enough overlap. Given that Apple will be able to verify that the data is good enough for their purposes.

If I were the OEM, I would not be eager to give up on getting a copy of that "tons of data," because that basically commits them to using the Apple product (or a similar 3rd-party equivalent) forever. And when the third parties crank up the price for FSD, the OEM would have no choice but to pay. Once FSD is a thing, and especially if robotaxis ever arrive, I expect the margins on vehicle assembly and badging will get smaller and smaller.

Also, while CarPlay was better than the crappy OEM infotainment software, when I used it maybe two years ago it wasn't all that. In particular, there were some very irritating integration points with the vehicle-specific bits, where you switched between the Apple-provided parts and the OEM-provided parts and there were extra taps needed and context was forgotten and the UI style changed suddenly and etc. Maybe this will be better if "Apple owns everything" on the software side, but I don't see it as a given that the Apple Car interface will be stellar. I guess that doesn't matter if they only sell cars with no human driver controls... but is that realistic in the time frame we're talking about? With the small amount of real-world data they're starting from?
 
My prediction is that Apple will not be building an EV, but have someone else add an Apple branded car to their production.

More likely Apple will be smarter to develop Apple hardware and software that other legacy manufacturers can integrate into their lineup. Kind of like Apple currently does with ApplePlay.

Many legacy ICE builders do not have deep knowledge into FSD, Battery Tech, or electric drive trains. They mostly develop and build engines, but sub out transmissions, batteries, starters, lighting, rear ends, interiors, shocks and indeed most all the items that go into their finished automobiles. Not sure they are going to change to the more successful current vertically integrated companies.

Most have lost that deep knowledge and experienced engineering peope necessary to reinvent the automobile.
 
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Anyone seen any concept or demo how the iCar will look like?

IoT_Markets_connected-car-940x313.jpg



It really depends if this its meant to be a Robotaxi or a personally owned car. Robotaxis will look more like this:

upload_2021-2-4_18-11-22.jpeg
 
Complete joke.

The "i-kia" will fail harder than the imouse puck:

5278130569bedd1d279596c1


I don't give a shat if Apple is 2.3 Trillion market cap. They are going to need to spend ALL of it to acquire talent, manufacturing, and resources to deliver a product that will have built in hostility from Day 1.

Apple can't even lead in
-Search Engines
-Web Browsers
-Maps
-Streaming Services

Yet they are going to deliver an integrated battery/vehicle/autonomous driving/all other software platform. And do it at scale.

I'd bet Tesla could deliver a better phone/wearable sooner than Apple could deliver an EV.

Not that Tesla would do that. They aren't stupid and probably have a sense of where their lane is at.

Many will bail on AAPL once they decide to commit serious capex and opex on this i-kia.
 
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Random thoughts:

1. This won't launch in 2024, it will be delayed. Whenever it does launch, add 2-3 additional years for them to achieve production at scale.

2. The cost structure of Apple partnering with an OEM means the vehicle will be among the priciest in its class.

3. Apple cares more about profit than market share. Therefore, the impact on Tesla should be minimal.

4. Without autonomy from the very start, any partnership Apple has with an OEM will probably fail.

5. Apple's "It" factor and brand name can only carry this so far.

6. The likelihood of failure is very high but Apple has to take a hard swing at this because the revenue potential of auto as an entertainment center is massive. They can't afford to be left out of this emerging segment made possible by autonomy.
 
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5. Apple's "It" factor and brand name can only carry this so far.

Won't carry very far at all.

I would assume people would point and say "look at that douchebag" when you roll up in a i-kia.

If I were Apple I would be content with owning the operating system. ROI for anything beyond that is a fool's errand.

You still have Tesla idiots asking for Carplay. Different between asking for that and THIS

1*abdX1YajAUt-3rH21_leqA.jpeg
 
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