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Churchill shareholders have yet to vote on the proposed merger.

They will know about the delay when they vote.

BTW Drove by the old abandoned Maserati dealership in my hometown of Torrance CA on Hawthorne Blvd. There are signs saying it will become a Lucid Store! Tesla Store didn't come to Torrance til ~2.5 years ago. When Maserati left I thought it was the perfect location for a Tesla store.
 
I stand corrected. I must have read that on Reddit and not double-checked. Here is a factual article, although I still consider the number not impressive (Tesla sells more S's in 6 weeks):
Lucid delays production Air EV to second half of 2021 on just 7,500 pre-orders - Drive Tesla Canada
Lucid Air Reservations Top Half A Billion Dollars
Last year Tesla averaged a little over 2k Model S sales every six weeks. 7500 would be more like 4-5 months worth of S sales. But reservations aren't sales, and 7500 reservations isn't all that impressive.

There was a lot more in there.
Revenue on sales based on ASP higher than Model S Plaid but somehow getting higher sales than S&X in the 100k+ market with a new car at a new brand.
Total revenue should include some "Services, Other" (mostly trade-ins) just like Tesla. If we set that to 5-10% of the total then Slide 59 shows 100-105k ASP (e.g. 2022 total revenue of 22m on 20k unit sales). Model S Plaid starts at 121k.
Cash burn rate would go through available cash in less than two years.
Unlike a certain colorful CEO, Rawlinson never said "we'll never need to raise cash again".
What was TSLA market cap when they had roadster and Model S delays?
You can't compare today's bubble market prices with a decade ago. If you don't want to pay bubble prices then get out of all these stocks.
Gali’s take was just as brutal.
LOL.
 
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Gali’s take was just as brutal.

Gali thinks Elon's musings on the future are facts.

And judges Lucid against that.

Gali head exploded because Lucid is "wasting money" on Super Bowl ads and football game ads. Evidently, Gali doesn't watch football.

The adds were not on the Superbowl. They are run on CNBC. That is Lucid's customer base and investor base. And airtime is much much cheaper.
 
Total revenue should include some "Services, Other" (mostly trade-ins) just like Tesla. If we set that to 5-10% of the total then Slide 59 shows 100-105k ASP (e.g. 2022 total revenue of 22m on 20k unit sales). Model S Plaid starts at 121k.
FWIW: I find it hard to believe they can sell 135k cars a year with an average of $100k sales price (more or less) which is what their 135k deliveries and $14B in revenues for 2025 would imply.

They claim a 3.2M TAM for Luxury cars in 2023... But I doubt that TAM has an ASP of $100k+
 
This is the list of countries where you can order a Lucid.

upload_2021-2-25_16-4-7.png
 
This is the list of countries where you can order a Lucid.

View attachment 640064
No you can't, or you shouldn't. I tried choosing Norway. And it is true I can "order" from Norway paying about $1000 to reserve a car. Though what I don't get is price or any kind of hint as to when it arrives. I read fluently English, but not even bothering to translate the order page to Norwegian is sloppy. Asking for a credit card for a page that looks like something a student might have whipped up in a few weeks is not very trustworthy. No European specs are NOT good.

The European pages all look the same, and this is amateur hour. So essentially they are only available in the US.

No dealers, no localised pages, no service centers, no presence what-so-ever outside US, means I'm glad they're only trying to sell 6k cars this year.

Let me take a wild guess. Their total sales in Europe in 2022 is going to be below 500 cars.

I would be sure they are a pure fraud if I didn't actually know they are more serious than Faraday Future.
 
No you can't, or you shouldn't. I tried choosing Norway. And it is true I can "order" from Norway paying about $1000 to reserve a car. Though what I don't get is price or any kind of hint as to when it arrives. I read fluently English, but not even bothering to translate the order page to Norwegian is sloppy. Asking for a credit card for a page that looks like something a student might have whipped up in a few weeks is not very trustworthy. No European specs are NOT good.

The European pages all look the same, and this is amateur hour. So essentially they are only available in the US.

No dealers, no localized pages, no service centers, no presence what-so-ever outside US, means I'm glad they're only trying to sell 6k cars this year.

Let me take a wild guess. Their total sales in Europe in 2022 is going to be below 500 cars.

I gave you an informative for the above

I would be sure they are a pure fraud if I didn't actually know they are more serious than Faraday Future.

This part I'd give a disagree if I read it too fast. On second look I have no objection with that line.
 
No you can't, or you shouldn't. I tried choosing Norway. And it is true I can "order" from Norway paying about $1000 to reserve a car. Though what I don't get is price or any kind of hint as to when it arrives. I read fluently English, but not even bothering to translate the order page to Norwegian is sloppy. Asking for a credit card for a page that looks like something a student might have whipped up in a few weeks is not very trustworthy. No European specs are NOT good.

The European pages all look the same, and this is amateur hour. So essentially they are only available in the US.

No dealers, no localised pages, no service centers, no presence what-so-ever outside US, means I'm glad they're only trying to sell 6k cars this year.

Let me take a wild guess. Their total sales in Europe in 2022 is going to be below 500 cars.

I would be sure they are a pure fraud if I didn't actually know they are more serious than Faraday Future.

Fraud this! PM me when FF gets to this point.

upload_2021-2-25_17-6-56.jpeg


 
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This part I'd give a disagree if I read it too fast. On second look I have no objection with that line.
Yeah the writing wasn’t as clear. I know Lucid is not a fraud, but as a completely unknown brand in Norway and probably Europe they got to appear more trustworthy than this. At least if they want a serious amount of sales outside US. It seems the UAE page is the same as the Norway page too.
 
CCIV is a public company. When it did its due diligence on Lucid, it learned material information that it failed to disclose.

But, the decision to delay start of sales hadn't been made then. It was only made recently, and then disclosed.

I don't think there are any disclosure issues, but this certainly isn't a good look from a competence point of view. When you go public, you want to have your ducks in a row so that institutional investors get rewarded. You want the first couple of reported quarters to ideally exceed your projections. These rickety SPACs that are going out these days are lucky if the company doesn't implode before the end of two reporting quarters (I'm looking at you NKLA).

As far as CCIV goes, doesn't anyone remember how slow manufacturing ramp up was for Tesla? And Tesla is the very rare car manufacturing startup company that succeeded. My expectations for Lucid, Rivian and the others is to perform worse than early Tesla days.

Personally I see bad stock performance going forward. The company is now behind the 8 ball and must now prove itself. No honeymoon. If it does prove itself, then the stock price will recover. But who knows. Maybe the stock market mania will rescue CCIV once again.
 
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But, the decision to delay start of sales hadn't been made then. It was only made recently, and then disclosed.

I don't think there are any disclosure issues, but this certainly isn't a good look from a competence point of view.

Due diligence would have included their development timeline and record of progress against the timeline.

I wouldn't argue about competence. I don't think that CCIV needs to or claims to have in-house competence on anything but shuffling money and filing the proper SEC paperwork. But CCIV wasn't diligent, was willfully blind, or failed to make a disclosure about a material issue.

These rickety SPACs that are going out these days are lucky if the company doesn't implode before the end of two reporting quarters (I'm looking at you NKLA)
...
Personally I see bad stock performance going forward. The company is now behind the 8 ball and must now prove itself. No honeymoon. If it does prove itself, then the stock price will recover. But who knows. Maybe the stock market mania will rescue CCIV once again.

I agree. While Lucid isn't (apparently) the fraud that Nikola is, CCIV is looking like a vehicle for financial insiders to take a huge chunk of cash and discounted shares for very little work. Lucid management no doubt feels the pressure to grab some cash while the market is hot, but there are good reasons for remaining closely held until production and sales are underway.
 
I agree. While Lucid isn't (apparently) the fraud that Nikola is, CCIV is looking like a vehicle for financial insiders to take a huge chunk of cash and discounted shares for very little work.

You've just described pretty much every SPAC, and I'm not joking.

Who was selling CCIV shares into that massive rally it had when Lucid merger rumors were circulating? The SPAC sponsors. The institutional money behind each SPAC doesn't care one whit about the merged company. As long as they can get out with a 2x or so return, they are as happy as clams. And given that SPACs are a way to short cut the arduous SEC IPO process, they routinely merge with still wet behind the ears private companies that have no business being a public company. Every single SPAC merger candidate I've seen was not ready to be public and wouldn't have passed muster in a traditional IPO.

But right now, there is such a feeding frenzy for the latest hot new company or space that clueless investors are buying up these SPAC mergers not realizing these valuations are insane for companies at this stage of their life. Forget pre-revenue companies, SPACs are merging with pre-proven technology companies.

Lucid management no doubt feels the pressure to grab some cash while the market is hot, but there are good reasons for remaining closely held until production and sales are underway.

Yes. But I can't fault Lucid because starting a freaking car company is insanely difficult and they need all the capital they can get their hands on. If Elon was starting Tesla in this environment, he would probably have gone the SPAC merger route himself.

The danger for these companies is what happens when the merger cash runs out? Unless the market stays hot for another two years, these companies may find it very difficult to raise future rounds. They had better hope they can make it to profitability with the merger cash they have.
 
Remember Tesla also went IPO way early in its growth. Elon Musk has said if decent private funding had been available in 2009-2011 Tesla would not have gone public until years later. He even tried to undo the Tesla IPO during the Model 3 production ramp. Those of us like myself who invested in TSLA early have made a big profit, but it came after many years of heartburn.

After watching the ups-and-downs at Tesla, I can certainly understand Rawlinson's thought process in grabbing that $4B in funding from the SPAC+PIPE deal. Do whatever maximizes the business itself's chance of success, even if it's suboptimal for one class of investor or another.

Personally, I would never buy a SPAC until a deal and its terms are finalized. SPAC investors are still going to pay market price if they merge with a great company, so SPAC investors are unlikely to get stock in great companies at a discount. CCIV speculators who thought they were getting Lucid at a discount got screwed. On the other hand, a SPAC investor may indeed get a discount if it merges with a mediocre company. But then they own stock in a mediocre company. The balance of risk-reward on SPACs is in favor of waiting until after a deal is done. After a deal is done, it's just buying stock in a public company and the SPACiness of the IPO is irrelevant.
 
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Remember Tesla also went IPO way early in its growth. Elon Musk has said if decent private funding had been available in 2009-2011 Tesla would not have gone public until years later. He even tried to undo the Tesla IPO during the Model 3 production ramp. Those of us like myself who invested in TSLA early have made a big profit, but it came after many years of heartburn.

After watching the ups-and-downs at Tesla, I can certainly understand Rawlinson's thought process in grabbing that $4B in funding from the SPAC+PIPE deal. Do whatever maximizes the business itself's chance of success, even if it's suboptimal for one class of investor or another.

Personally, I would never buy a SPAC until a deal and its terms are finalized. SPAC investors are still going to pay market price if they merge with a great company, so SPAC investors are unlikely to get stock in great companies at a discount. CCIV speculators who thought they were getting Lucid at a discount got screwed. On the other hand, a SPAC investor may indeed get a discount if it merges with a mediocre company. But then they own stock in a mediocre company. The balance of risk-reward on SPACs is in favor of waiting until after a deal is done. After a deal is done, it's just buying stock in a public company and the SPACiness of the IPO is irrelevant.

Actually there are two ways to make money with SPACs. First, unavailable to us, is to be an investor in the SPAC when it gets created (ie during the SPAC IPO).

The second way has been shown on this forum, act early on SPAC merger rumors. Hold until you get 2x (or whatever) return, sell BEFORE the rumor gets turned into news. Has anyone here lost doing that strategy (other than holding too long?).
 
Rawlinson is primarily blaming not being able to secure the necessary components from suppliers, in part due to COVID. 3,000 parts from 250 suppliers. Microchips are not the problem. They stockpiled those and say they have contracts that guarantee supply more so than typical automakers.

Implying Lucid was running out of cash; they were scrambling to find alternate suppliers and push for Spring first deliveries anyway.

Now with added cash they have a "clear runway through 2023." And can financially afford to delay launch until all their ducks are in a row.

Lucid Postpones Production, But Pokes Fun At Tesla About Luxury