SageBrush
REJECT Fascism
Last I saw it was a dirt path. Did they bring in a trailer home and dump it on the property ?
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All discussion of Nikola Motors
- Thread starter Buckminster
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RobDickinson
Active Member
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CyberGus
Not Just a Member
RobDickinson
Active Member
SageBrush
REJECT Fascism
Thanks for sharing. My WAG is that the building is about the size of a large walmart. Sound right ?
Could be a warehouse for somebody, eventually
RobDickinson
Active Member
Wow, today's posts seem out of line. They said they're going to build a factory, and they're building a factory. It's a big factory (look at the scale compared to a person in the "facade work continues" segment). I won't compare it to Giga Texas, but I'll give them the benefit of the doubt that it's large enough to assemble semi trucks. This is not I think where the criticism belongs.
Trevor was a scumbag and they still haven't actually built a product for customers, so there's plenty of legitimate stuff to criticize. Maybe we could keep it to that?
Trevor was a scumbag and they still haven't actually built a product for customers, so there's plenty of legitimate stuff to criticize. Maybe we could keep it to that?
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RobDickinson
Active Member
My scepticism remains firmly around the fact they dont have anything to assemble.
I guess you could assemble a truck in there if you just ship in premade parts etc?
I guess you could assemble a truck in there if you just ship in premade parts etc?
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
No, it's really not.
They themselves describe is as a "Pilot Factory" because it's far to small to be a mass production one.
In their Q2 2021 call just ~10 days ago they claimed they had the "manufacturing capacity" to build up to.... 80 BEV trucks!
Except, uh, they won't, because...parts shortages.
But don't worry, they claim they'll still put SOME on roads in some way by end of year even though they're not actually "saleable" because they're missing vital parts.
So now they "hope" to get maybe 25-50 trucks kinda sorta assembled enough to function, but not be able to be legally sold by end of the year...
That sounds legit! Maybe they can find a nice hill to roll em down
Oh, and there's also the HFC version of the truck, I mean those they've got...7 whole trucks in "alpha" and will totally start actual production in...*checks notes* second half of 2023...
But wait, there's more! You also get the Ginzu knives! Oh, wait, no, I mean the Nikola Two- which they TOTES are gonna make in late 2024! Promise!
Back to the factory though- they claim (they do that a lot!) they're gonna "expand" their manufacturing capabilities there by end of the year to an ANNUAL rate of 2400 trucks.
That means by end of 2021 they're hoping that facility you seem to think is large would be able to build...less than 7 vehicles a day.
Teslas oldest, and smallest, plant, would need ~2 days of installed capacity to produce more vehicles than Nikolas plan "hopes" to expand to be able to build the entirety of next year.
And mind you- that 2400/yr is their "capacity" not the # they can actually make.... so far they've only "found" 1200 trucks worth of batteries...if only they had known they'd need those!!
Don't worry though, they're totally moving on to Phase 2 soon and they're SURE that'll be done like before mid 2023... then they'll have MASSIVELY increased their capacity to a whole 20,000 per year! (again, capacity, not actual ability)... A whole two WEEKS of what Teslas smallest factory can do TODAY!
So this all seems like pretty legit stuff to criticize.
RobDickinson
Active Member
According to google there is 2 million semi trucks in USA, so once they have phase 2 built in 2023 its only 100 years till Nikola can revolutionise the whole trucking market!
CyberGus
Not Just a Member
Nikola's years of bad faith and fraud has exhausted any benefit of doubt available. They will need to deliver on several successive promises before anything they claim can be taken at face value.
Fool me twice, and I won't get fooled again.
Fool me twice, and I won't get fooled again.
SageBrush
REJECT Fascism
They said they would build a factory years ago, and they are part way to putting up a building.
You are welcome
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SageBrush
REJECT Fascism
Who knows what that means.
Perhaps they rent a pilot for a day to sit on an NG tank for photo-ops ?
Like the drivetrain ?
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Knightshade
Well-Known Member
NKLA up about 15% in last 5 days.... only news I can find is they're planning to sell more of their only product- stock.
finance.yahoo.com
Nikola strikes second deal with Tumim Stone Capital to sell $300 mln stock
Electric truck maker Nikola Corp said on Monday it had entered into another deal with Tumim Stone Capital to sell $300 million of its stock, taking the total to up to $600 million. Phoenix, Arizona-based Nikola entered into a share deal with Tumim, according to a filing earlier in June. Under...
andy.connor.e
Member
Im going to be the TL;DR person for the last 59 pages of comments, why does NKLA still have value?
Individuals commit the sunk cost fallacy when they continue a behavior or endeavor as a result of previously invested resources (time, money or effort) (Arkes & Blumer, 1985). This fallacy, which is related to loss aversion and status quo bias, can also be viewed as bias resulting from an ongoing commitment.
For example, individuals sometimes order too much food and then over-eat just to “get their money’s worth”. Similarly, a person may have a $20 ticket to a concert and then drive for hours through a blizzard, just because she feels that she has to attend due to having made the initial investment. If the costs outweigh the benefits, the extra costs incurred (inconvenience, time or even money) are held in a different mental account than the one associated with the ticket transaction (Thaler, 1999).
Research suggests that rats, mice and humans are all sensitive to sunk costs after they have made the decision to pursue a reward (Sweis et al., 2018).
Arkes, H. R., & Blumer, C. (1985), The psychology of sunk costs. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 35, 124-140.
Sweis, B. M., Abram, S. V., Schmidt, B. J., Seeland, K. D., MacDonald, A. W., Thomas, M. J., & Redish, A. D. (2018). Sensitivity to “sunk costs” in mice, rats, and humans. Science, 361(6398), 178-181.
Thaler, R. H. (1999). Mental accounting matters. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 12, 183-206.
andy.connor.e
Member
RobDickinson
Active Member
Brando
Active Member
In the case of Nikola Stock - Occam's razor - don't ignore plain stupidity.
Or just a great example of Occam's razor.
Hope springs eternal. On a long enough timescale, it is still possible that NKLA's management will get its crap together and eventually deliver something of value. That hope plus the sunk cost fallacy results in buy and hold behavior.
For growth stocks that have no dividend like NKLA, you've got to be ruthless in selling them when you realize they aren't the rocketship you thought they were. There are plenty of other growth stocks that have more plausible stock growth prospects than NKLA.
I bought GP a while ago (documented on these pages). I thought they would do well in the medium term, but so far that hasn't played out. If they don't show a lot of improvement this quarter, I'm selling it at a loss or profit.
And then, of course, there are tons of people that simply don't understand the underlying technology and think the stock is still worth something based on today's knowledge of the company. I include professional investors in that basket. Quantumscape is an example of that, IMHO. Five years before they sell product in any volume, and by then the market will have battery cells of similar specs at probably cheaper prices.
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