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All discussion of Nikola Motors

ammulder

3P, X ordered
Supporting Member
Apr 11, 2019
1,418
5,328
Philly area
Wow, today's posts seem out of line. They said they're going to build a factory, and they're building a factory. It's a big factory (look at the scale compared to a person in the "facade work continues" segment). I won't compare it to Giga Texas, but I'll give them the benefit of the doubt that it's large enough to assemble semi trucks. This is not I think where the criticism belongs.

Trevor was a scumbag and they still haven't actually built a product for customers, so there's plenty of legitimate stuff to criticize. Maybe we could keep it to that?
 
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Knightshade

Well-Known Member
Jul 31, 2017
13,625
23,117
NC
Wow, today's posts seem out of line. They said they're going to build a factory, and they're building a factory. It's a big factory


No, it's really not.


They themselves describe is as a "Pilot Factory" because it's far to small to be a mass production one.

In their Q2 2021 call just ~10 days ago they claimed they had the "manufacturing capacity" to build up to.... 80 BEV trucks!

Except, uh, they won't, because...parts shortages.

But don't worry, they claim they'll still put SOME on roads in some way by end of year even though they're not actually "saleable" because they're missing vital parts.

So now they "hope" to get maybe 25-50 trucks kinda sorta assembled enough to function, but not be able to be legally sold by end of the year...

That sounds legit! Maybe they can find a nice hill to roll em down :)


Oh, and there's also the HFC version of the truck, I mean those they've got...7 whole trucks in "alpha" and will totally start actual production in...*checks notes* second half of 2023...

But wait, there's more! You also get the Ginzu knives! Oh, wait, no, I mean the Nikola Two- which they TOTES are gonna make in late 2024! Promise!


Back to the factory though- they claim (they do that a lot!) they're gonna "expand" their manufacturing capabilities there by end of the year to an ANNUAL rate of 2400 trucks.

That means by end of 2021 they're hoping that facility you seem to think is large would be able to build...less than 7 vehicles a day.

Teslas oldest, and smallest, plant, would need ~2 days of installed capacity to produce more vehicles than Nikolas plan "hopes" to expand to be able to build the entirety of next year.

And mind you- that 2400/yr is their "capacity" not the # they can actually make.... so far they've only "found" 1200 trucks worth of batteries...if only they had known they'd need those!!


Don't worry though, they're totally moving on to Phase 2 soon and they're SURE that'll be done like before mid 2023... then they'll have MASSIVELY increased their capacity to a whole 20,000 per year! (again, capacity, not actual ability)... A whole two WEEKS of what Teslas smallest factory can do TODAY!




So this all seems like pretty legit stuff to criticize.
 

CyberGus

Not Just a Member
May 5, 2020
1,110
2,507
Austin, TX
Nikola's years of bad faith and fraud has exhausted any benefit of doubt available. They will need to deliver on several successive promises before anything they claim can be taken at face value.

Fool me twice, and I won't get fooled again.
 

SageBrush

REJECT Fascism
May 7, 2015
12,744
16,963
New Mexico
They themselves describe is as a "Pilot Factory" because it's far too small to be a mass production one.
Who knows what that means.
Perhaps they rent a pilot for a day to sit on an NG tank for photo-ops ?

But don't worry, they claim they'll still put SOME on roads in some way by end of year even though they're not actually "saleable" because they're missing vital parts.
Like the drivetrain ?
 
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  • Funny
Reactions: RobDickinson

Knightshade

Well-Known Member
Jul 31, 2017
13,625
23,117
NC
NKLA up about 15% in last 5 days.... only news I can find is they're planning to sell more of their only product- stock.

 

heltok

Active Member
Aug 12, 2014
1,336
12,198
Sweden
Im going to be the TL;DR person for the last 59 pages of comments, why does NKLA still have value?
Individuals commit the sunk cost fallacy when they continue a behavior or endeavor as a result of previously invested resources (time, money or effort) (Arkes & Blumer, 1985). This fallacy, which is related to loss aversion and status quo bias, can also be viewed as bias resulting from an ongoing commitment.


For example, individuals sometimes order too much food and then over-eat just to “get their money’s worth”. Similarly, a person may have a $20 ticket to a concert and then drive for hours through a blizzard, just because she feels that she has to attend due to having made the initial investment. If the costs outweigh the benefits, the extra costs incurred (inconvenience, time or even money) are held in a different mental account than the one associated with the ticket transaction (Thaler, 1999).

Research suggests that rats, mice and humans are all sensitive to sunk costs after they have made the decision to pursue a reward (Sweis et al., 2018).



Arkes, H. R., & Blumer, C. (1985), The psychology of sunk costs. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 35, 124-140.

Sweis, B. M., Abram, S. V., Schmidt, B. J., Seeland, K. D., MacDonald, A. W., Thomas, M. J., & Redish, A. D. (2018). Sensitivity to “sunk costs” in mice, rats, and humans. Science, 361(6398), 178-181.

Thaler, R. H. (1999). Mental accounting matters. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 12, 183-206.
 

andy.connor.e

Member
Jul 20, 2020
112
96
Capital Region, NY
Individuals commit the sunk cost fallacy when they continue a behavior or endeavor as a result of previously invested resources (time, money or effort) (Arkes & Blumer, 1985). This fallacy, which is related to loss aversion and status quo bias, can also be viewed as bias resulting from an ongoing commitment.


For example, individuals sometimes order too much food and then over-eat just to “get their money’s worth”. Similarly, a person may have a $20 ticket to a concert and then drive for hours through a blizzard, just because she feels that she has to attend due to having made the initial investment. If the costs outweigh the benefits, the extra costs incurred (inconvenience, time or even money) are held in a different mental account than the one associated with the ticket transaction (Thaler, 1999).

Research suggests that rats, mice and humans are all sensitive to sunk costs after they have made the decision to pursue a reward (Sweis et al., 2018).



Arkes, H. R., & Blumer, C. (1985), The psychology of sunk costs. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 35, 124-140.

Sweis, B. M., Abram, S. V., Schmidt, B. J., Seeland, K. D., MacDonald, A. W., Thomas, M. J., & Redish, A. D. (2018). Sensitivity to “sunk costs” in mice, rats, and humans. Science, 361(6398), 178-181.

Thaler, R. H. (1999). Mental accounting matters. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 12, 183-206.
i believe you
 

Cosmacelf

Well-Known Member
Mar 6, 2013
8,850
22,574
San Diego
Im going to be the TL;DR person for the last 59 pages of comments, why does NKLA still have value?

Hope springs eternal. On a long enough timescale, it is still possible that NKLA's management will get its crap together and eventually deliver something of value. That hope plus the sunk cost fallacy results in buy and hold behavior.

For growth stocks that have no dividend like NKLA, you've got to be ruthless in selling them when you realize they aren't the rocketship you thought they were. There are plenty of other growth stocks that have more plausible stock growth prospects than NKLA.

I bought GP a while ago (documented on these pages). I thought they would do well in the medium term, but so far that hasn't played out. If they don't show a lot of improvement this quarter, I'm selling it at a loss or profit.

And then, of course, there are tons of people that simply don't understand the underlying technology and think the stock is still worth something based on today's knowledge of the company. I include professional investors in that basket. Quantumscape is an example of that, IMHO. Five years before they sell product in any volume, and by then the market will have battery cells of similar specs at probably cheaper prices.
 

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