All discussion of Nikola Motors

[SebastianR]

If GM really needs the EV credits - why not create a new company? Create "Edison Motors", sell an "upgraded" version of the Badger raise money for it in the stock market? And just let Nikola go bankrupt?

I mean they will need to also sell the vehicles: no regular sane person would buy a Nikola truck right now - where will you get service if the company finally tanks? I can see /r/wallstreetbets jump back into NKLA but which regular person would buy a very expensive truck without GM's promise for service (or a company which is healthy enough to survive the next 8 years)? And in the end, Nikola is worthless unless people buy their products...

 

[SageBrush]

Buying a scam for EV credits is like buying a pig for the lipstick

 

[elasalle]

Nikola Motor should be renamed Newton Motors.

Spoiler: Spoiler

It works via Gravity

 

[AudubonB]

I’ve been thinking Nickelodeon but yours is less cruel.

 

[ammulder]

This story isn't over yet! All you haters just remember... Tesla is great and all, but Trevor is the only person on Earth who can out-Elon Elon.

...that's what he claimed, anyway...

 

[ZsoZso]

This story isn't over yet! All you haters just remember... Tesla is great and all, but Trevor is the only person on Earth who can out-Elon Elon.

...that's what he claimed, anyway...

Yeah, that's what he claimed, but what he really meant was, he can out-Elizabeth Elizabeth (Holmes of Theranos fame).

 

[SageBrush]

NKLA's fall from grace was rapid enough that we can count how many days it takes for the lawyers to turn NKLA into a court story. I say five until NKLA assets are frozen and BK is declared.

Shall we have a poll ?

 

[Cosmacelf]

If Biden wins the election, the $7,500 credits might be re-enabled with no volume restrictions as part of a green deal.

Anything is possible, but have you heard anything concrete in that direction?

 

[Knightshade]

If GM really needs the EV credits - why not create a new company? Create "Edison Motors", sell an "upgraded" version of the Badger raise money for it in the stock market? And just let Nikola go bankrupt?

I mean they will need to also sell the vehicles: no regular sane person would buy a Nikola truck right now - where will you get service if the company finally tanks? I can see /r/wallstreetbets jump back into NKLA but which regular person would buy a very expensive truck without GM's promise for service (or a company which is healthy enough to survive the next 8 years)? And in the end, Nikola is worthless unless people buy their products...

So there's 2 different types of credits in play here.


The EV emissions credits-these are used by ICE car makers to offset their emissions

And those GM could just build their own EVs and get.

But it's obviously better to have Nikola PAY GM to build Nikola EVs, and GM gets the emissions credits plus gets paid cost plus profits on building the EV factory and the actual EVs for Nikola.

That's objectively, financially, better for GM assuming Nikola continues to exist and pay bills.



Then there's the $7500 EV tax credit to buyers- that begins phaseout after a given manufacturer sells 200,000 EVs.... GM can not just make a new company they own to get more credits. But they CAN contract out to a TOTALLY DIFFERENT company to do all the actual work of building them, say, their own EV factory and some EV pickup trucks, all 100% using GMs technology and engineering, and THOSE, coming from a different manufacturer, would get another fresh 200,000 credits to make them sell-able at a $7500 cheaper net price than GM could sell trucks for to consumer.



Again there is zero downside here for GM other than bad PR.

They are bringing no cash to the deal. Nikola is bringing a ton of stock AND at least 700 million cash to it (plus however else they can sca^h^h^h convince buyers to front for deposits or more shares or whatever.

Everything GM will provide to Nikola is on a cost plus basis so GM makes money on everything even during the development and testing stages- plus the potential credits benefits if they make it to actually selling any vehicles.

 

[humbaba]

NKLA's fall from grace was rapid enough that we can count how many days it takes for the lawyers to turn NKLA into a court story. I say five until NKLA assets are frozen and BK is declared.

Shall we have a poll ?

I don't see Nikola going away that quickly. The fraud allegations largely revolve around Trevor so even though others are involved as well by jettisoning him they put the company in a more forward looking position.

People often bring up Theranos but I just don't see it. The Theranos product was itself fraudulent. Nikola's situation just isn't that clear cut.

Nikola starts with a business plan of providing green long distance trucking via H2 and bundled truck + fuel + maintenance. While it is trivial to show that this doesn't hold water (the TCO is necessarily higher than with an EV) the reality is that, unlike Theranos, Nikola could actually sell trucks + fuel + maintenance. They might lose money, it might not be green, but (in principle at least) they can in fact deliver a product.

Whether or not it was part of some conspiracy at GM, the present fact is that GM is running the show at Nikola (the board, the contract) and anyone who thinks that GM wouldn't like to do some green washing raise your hands. Right. That's what I thought.

The primary issue with the H2 dream is that -- if it is green -- it makes no sense. TCO is better with an EV and Tesla will have a real truck in production soon. There's been a lot of noise about H2 being green, but not requirement for it to be so. If you produce H2 with whatever is most cost effective (e.g., natural gas reformers or using coal-fired plants for electrolysis)* and the mix includes renewable then you can truthfully claim to be using green H2 (in addition to dirty H2).

While I don't think that GM sees Nikola as being especially important, they have done their due diligence and determined that they can milk it for some benefit. It is even possible that Nikola will eventually make some H2 semi trucks, but I wouldn't expect them to be green.

Of course, Nikola could go under (and good riddance if it does). But I don't see it as a necessity.

* Hydrogen Production Cost - an overview | ScienceDirect Topics

 

[Knightshade]

I don't see Nikola going away that quickly. The fraud allegations largely revolve around Trevor so even though others are involved as well by jettisoning him they put the company in a more forward looking position.

People often bring up Theranos but I just don't see it. The Theranos product was itself fraudulent. Nikola's situation just isn't that clear cut.

Nikola starts with a business plan of providing green long distance trucking via H2 and bundled truck + fuel + maintenance. While it is trivial to show that this doesn't hold water (the TCO is necessarily higher than with an EV) the reality is that, unlike Theranos, Nikola could actually sell trucks + fuel + maintenance. They might lose money, it might not be green, but (in principle at least) they can in fact deliver a product.

The real issue with Nikola is there is no product

They have no trucks. Or hydrogen. Or fuel stations. Or any IP to create any of those things beyond some CGI drawings of them.

Every physical/demo thing they HAVE shown has been someone elses hardware- either off the shelf stuff like those inverters- or 3rd party stuff they paid someone like Bosch to make for them.

That's why the GM deal was so hilarious- Nikola spent years telling us about their awesome EV and hydrogen tech- and then paid GM 2 billion in stock (plus likely billions more in future payments) to use GMs EV and hydrogen tech...and not just that, have GM build the entire freaking pickup for em.

Because with Nikola, there's no there there.



All that said, if GM can just blame Trevor for all the fraud and use Nikola as essentially a shell company to suck all the cash out of it plus the emissions credits via building EV pickups, none of that will make much difference.

 

[LTC_RRR]

Anything is possible, but have you heard anything concrete in that direction?

All questions about concrete should be better directed towards Nikola's VP For Hydrogen Infrastructure

 

[humbaba]

The real issue with Nikola is there is no product

They have no trucks. Or hydrogen. Or fuel stations. Or any IP to create any of those things beyond some CGI drawings of them.

Every physical/demo thing they HAVE shown has been someone elses hardware- either off the shelf stuff like those inverters- or 3rd party stuff they paid someone like Bosch to make for them.

That's why the GM deal was so hilarious- Nikola spent years telling us about their awesome EV and hydrogen tech- and then paid GM 2 billion in stock (plus likely billions more in future payments) to use GMs EV and hydrogen tech...and not just that, have GM build the entire freaking pickup for em.

Because with Nikola, there's no there there.



All that said, if GM can just blame Trevor for all the fraud and use Nikola as essentially a shell company to suck all the cash out of it plus the emissions credits via building EV pickups, none of that will make much difference.

But they don't actually need anything internal. They can (and have been) outsourcing it all. That doesn't help the viability of their business plan (they would have to relentlessly focus on cost improvement) but my point is that Nikola the company may be around a lot longer than some people expect.

They have contracted with Nel for hydrogen production. They might eventually pay someone to build it. Does it make sense to invest in a company like that? Of course not! My point is everything (other than profitability) is definitely achievable, it just takes money. With Theranos it wasn't a matter of testing not being profitable, their testing did not work.

I realize it might seem like there's a connection with Nikola's fraudulent representations with the Nikola One, etc., but while specific products were represented in a fraudulent manner there is no real doubt that H2 trucks can be manufactured, that H2 can be produced, and so on. And if Nikola dispenses with the nepotism and puts people with a clue and relevant experience in the right positions -- and they get enough money to fund it -- they might actually do so (or pay someone to do it for them).

Nikola has operated fraudulently, but it is not Theranos. There is a possibility for the company to continue -- it can take a while for lack of profitability to be lethal. And of course, it may still implode before it gets to paying GM $700M. And I'll get some schadenfreude if it does. Even more if Trevor is convicted and spends some time in prison.

 

[smorgasbord]

But they don't actually need anything internal. They can (and have been) outsourcing it all. That doesn't help the viability of their business plan (they would have to relentlessly focus on cost improvement) but my point is that Nikola the company may be around a lot longer than some people expect.

They have contracted with Nel for hydrogen production. They might eventually pay someone to build it. Does it make sense to invest in a company like that? Of course not! My point is everything (other than profitability) is definitely achievable, it just takes money. With Theranos it wasn't a matter of testing not being profitable, their testing did not work.

I realize it might seem like there's a connection with Nikola's fraudulent representations with the Nikola One, etc., but while specific products were represented in a fraudulent manner there is no real doubt that H2 trucks can be manufactured, that H2 can be produced, and so on. And if Nikola dispenses with the nepotism and puts people with a clue and relevant experience in the right positions -- and they get enough money to fund it -- they might actually do so (or pay someone to do it for them).

Nikola has operated fraudulently, but it is not Theranos. There is a possibility for the company to continue -- it can take a while for lack of profitability to be lethal. And of course, it may still implode before it gets to paying GM $700M. And I'll get some schadenfreude if it does. Even more if Trevor is convicted and spends some time in prison.

Trevor even admitted that the Badger was a side-show, done only to attract retail investors.

I agree that Nikola could be successful with having only very little of its own technology. Between integrating the pieces (Acquisition of cheap electricity, Hydrogen generation via electrolysis, fast hydrogen refueling, Fuel cell powered trucks) AND having a compelling cost-saving business model (Trucking as a Service, where customers pay by the mile instead of the capital expense of buying a truck, paying for diesel, paying for maintenance, etc.), Nikola could be successful. The idea is that Nikola will beat the economics of diesel AND not use fossil fuels.

But, even with competent management (ahem), the question remains whether they can get enough clean electricity cheap enough, and have enough funding to last long enough to get enough of the infrastructure built out and vehicles built and maintenance setup and survive the inevitable cost overruns for everything for several years before there's a run that turns a profit. And even then, they'll have to roll any profits back into the business to expand the infrastructure even more. With Amazon and Tesla, we've seen Wall St. still doesn't appreciate that model.

Assuming the legal issues all stick to Trevor and not Nikola as a company, the question still remains how Nikola raises Billions of dollars and has enough time to get this done and to demonstrate cost-effectiveness.

 

[ammulder]

All that said, if GM can just blame Trevor for all the fraud and use Nikola as essentially a shell company to suck all the cash out of it plus the emissions credits via building EV pickups, none of that will make much difference.

Exactly! “What we were going to do already with GM-branded EVs except $700M cheaper and with $7500 cash on the hood”

I’ll still be surprised if they actually make any hydrogen-powered Badgers, with little to no H2 infrastructure in place. I expect them to be BEVs.

 

[heems]

I have no stake in NKLA, but after reading and watching a bunch of NKLA related articles and videos, I think there is a large confirmation bias going on - even in this thread. Putting aside all the claims by the execs, Nikola comes across as an integrator. Think DELL. In the beginning they just slapped parts from Intel, Phoenix bios, Samsung, etc. and made a business out of it. Did they have an IP? Did they solve some gigantic world problem? Did they bring about 5nm chips back in 2005? No. But they made a business. From what I am gathering Nikola merely was doing the same. Further it figured over time (and this is key) they will replace some of those underlying parts with their own. Not today, but later. Dell did too. They now write their own BIOS, or make their own motherboard. So, putting aside outlandish claims, the model is not the worst thing ever as many purport it to be. Nikola was going to be the glue piecing the parts together at first and then later maybe even specialized in some areas. There should not be a requirement to have solved a major tech breakthrough to have a viable company.

Having said all that they did hype those "later coming" things, without qualifying them properly as such. And that's a mistake imo. They fell into the larger narrative of comparing to Tesla (as media/public will now do to each and every new entrant) and they felt they needed that to compete. I don't think they did personally, but I am not in a position to raise billions for my venture either. And that's a slippery slope. Once you get out there and say you have that future thing now, well then you have trucks rolling downhill without an engine inside. And the focus and original approach is lost in all the subsequent noise.

Maybe they can get back to being an integrator and solve their core H2 costs and business model. But given the reputational damage, not sure how easily they can now raise those precious billions they need to make it.

 

[Cosmacelf]

I have no stake in NKLA, but after reading and watching a bunch of NKLA related articles and videos, I think there is a large confirmation bias going on - even in this thread. Putting aside all the claims by the execs, Nikola comes across as an integrator. Think DELL. In the beginning they just slapped parts from Intel, Phoenix bios, Samsung, etc. and made a business out of it. Did they have an IP? Did they solve some gigantic world problem? Did they bring about 5nm chips back in 2005? No. But they made a business. From what I am gathering Nikola merely was doing the same. Further it figured over time (and this is key) they will replace some of those underlying parts with their own. Not today, but later. Dell did too. They now write their own BIOS, or make their own motherboard. So, putting aside outlandish claims, the model is not the worst thing ever as many purport it to be. Nikola was going to be the glue piecing the parts together at first and then later maybe even specialized in some areas. There should not be a requirement to have solved a major tech breakthrough to have a viable company.

Having said all that they did hype those "later coming" things, without qualifying them properly as such. And that's a mistake imo. They fell into the larger narrative of comparing to Tesla (as media/public will now do to each and every new entrant) and they felt they needed that to compete. I don't think they did personally, but I am not in a position to raise billions for my venture either. And that's a slippery slope. Once you get out there and say you have that future thing now, well then you have trucks rolling downhill without an engine inside. And the focus and original approach is lost in all the subsequent noise.

Maybe they can get back to being an integrator and solve their core H2 costs and business model. But given the reputational damage, not sure how easily they can now raise those precious billions they need to make it.

Sounds right. Also we are too close to this story. The average man on the street has no clue this drama is unfolding. By the time a Badger is being sold, very very few people are going to care about how Nikola got there. So I wouldn't even worry about "reputational damage".

 

[SageBrush]

They can (and have been) outsourcing it all.

My problem with your conjecture is that NKLA is publicly traded and by all appearances they have defrauded their investors in so many ways it is hard to count. Imagine for a moment that you held NKLA stock -- what would you be doing ?

If it was me and the sum was substantial I would have been at a lawyer's door yesterday.

As for GM, I'm not sure how much money they will lose but Barra et al look like imbeciles.

 

[SageBrush]

Nikola comes across as an integrator

GM is an integrator
NKLA is nothing but a dirt path somewhere in AZ and a pretty good graphic designer.

 

[heems]

GM is an integrator.

I don't think that word means what you think it does. They make their own engines.