humbaba
sleeping until $7000
While you had a good start you quickly went down hill. Nikola didn't start as an integrator and then decide to insource, they were founded on the premise of having breakthrough technology, but since they were hiring friends & family and couldn't make anything work they outsourced everything. The final capitulation was the deal with GM where GM designs, engineers and manufactures for them. Nikola has nothing.I have no stake in NKLA, but after reading and watching a bunch of NKLA related articles and videos, I think there is a large confirmation bias going on - even in this thread. Putting aside all the claims by the execs, Nikola comes across as an integrator. Think DELL. In the beginning they just slapped parts from Intel, Phoenix bios, Samsung, etc. and made a business out of it. Did they have an IP? Did they solve some gigantic world problem? Did they bring about 5nm chips back in 2005? No. But they made a business. From what I am gathering Nikola merely was doing the same. Further it figured over time (and this is key) they will replace some of those underlying parts with their own. Not today, but later. Dell did too. They now write their own BIOS, or make their own motherboard. So, putting aside outlandish claims, the model is not the worst thing ever as many purport it to be. Nikola was going to be the glue piecing the parts together at first and then later maybe even specialized in some areas. There should not be a requirement to have solved a major tech breakthrough to have a viable company.
Having said all that they did hype those "later coming" things, without qualifying them properly as such. And that's a mistake imo. They fell into the larger narrative of comparing to Tesla (as media/public will now do to each and every new entrant) and they felt they needed that to compete. I don't think they did personally, but I am not in a position to raise billions for my venture either. And that's a slippery slope. Once you get out there and say you have that future thing now, well then you have trucks rolling downhill without an engine inside. And the focus and original approach is lost in all the subsequent noise.
Maybe they can get back to being an integrator and solve their core H2 costs and business model. But given the reputational damage, not sure how easily they can now raise those precious billions they need to make it.
The only real disagreement I have with some of the other folks here is in how long Nikola can keep doing the zombie shuffle. I happen to think it may go on quite a while, probably at least a year, and longer if they raise enough money. Why anyone would give them money is beyond me, but Tesla just didn't an absolutely amazing presentation where they are already piloting what is projected to be a 56% cost reduction in battery production and $TSLA dropped nearly 5%. And Nikola has not already capitulated (they bring nothing to the table, GM does it all) but they've been caught perpetrating fraud and more people keep buying!
The market is irrational and I can accept that. I've invested in $TSLA for the long haul so while these temporary drops are annoying they don't really matter. In two more years the stock will be much higher than it is now -- possibly even after another split. In two more years it will take a miracle for Nikola to be in the black. They may not be Theranos, but they are no Dell.