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All discussion of Nio Motors

Singuy

Active Member
Jun 28, 2018
3,292
22,315
US
Whatever the Chinese government says they do?

In all seriousness, they are a government sponsored/supported company, and China won't let them fail because they want to be in that market in the future.

If you believe the financials, they say they had 14.5% margin on their cars in Q3:
https://ir.nio.com/static-files/39d3112f-3cb4-4ed5-aade-b040b368719a
I can agree with 14.5%. It's surprising for their volume, but then again the new MIC Model Y is at 30% being cheaper than the Nio with FSD chip already built in.

But yeah there's always that potential of someone cooking the books as I don't know how hard they audit the reports.
 

DutchDriver

Member
Dec 30, 2015
101
525
Netherlands
For a car company where vertical integration is not the first focus, thats a damn good margin if you ask me.

If compared to another 'Chinese EV start up' XPENG:

Vehicle margin, which is gross profit or gross loss of vehicle sales as a percentage of revenues from vehicle sales, was 3.2% for the third quarter of 2020
 

Singuy

Active Member
Jun 28, 2018
3,292
22,315
US
For a car company where vertical integration is not the first focus, thats a damn good margin if you ask me.

If compared to another 'Chinese EV start up' XPENG:

Vehicle margin, which is gross profit or gross loss of vehicle sales as a percentage of revenues from vehicle sales, was 3.2% for the third quarter of 2020
Yup because everything is build in China. Salary is lower, material goods are lower, everything is lower. Tesla instantly surpassed Fremont Margins and doubling Nio's within the first quarter of giga shanghai's grand opening.

Also wasn't Nio around 3-4% just a quarter ago?
 

DutchDriver

Member
Dec 30, 2015
101
525
Netherlands
Yup because everything is build in China. Salary is lower, material goods are lower, everything is lower. Tesla instantly surpassed Fremont Margins and doubling Nio's within the first quarter of giga shanghai's grand opening.

Also wasn't Nio around 3-4% just a quarter ago?
No, it was mentioned at the previous page:

If you believe the financials, they say they had 14.5% margin on their cars in Q3:
https://ir.nio.com/static-files/39d3112f-3cb4-4ed5-aade-b040b368719a

There arent margin numbers yet of the 4th quarter.
So compared with XPENG, NIO isnt doing bad at all.
 

Singuy

Active Member
Jun 28, 2018
3,292
22,315
US
No, it was mentioned at the previous page:

If you believe the financials, they say they had 14.5% margin on their cars in Q3:
https://ir.nio.com/static-files/39d3112f-3cb4-4ed5-aade-b040b368719a

There arent margin numbers yet of the 4th quarter.
So compared with XPENG, NIO isnt doing bad at all.
Okay their margins were almost negative 10% q1 2020, and positive 10% q2 2020. So it's too early to compare anything right now as all of their margins are moving around pretty quickly.
 

Doggydogworld

Active Member
Mar 4, 2019
1,508
5,781
Texas
Oh IC, so Tesla is manufacturing in other countries so they can ramp down Fremont. And building a brand new Texas Terrafactor for shits and giggles since demand is stuck.
I said has been stuck, not will always be stuck. Tesla clearly plans to grow US sales. That's why you can now order the Y-SR Elon said they wouldn't sell. I do expect Fremont output to decline as Austin comes online. Elon is serious about leaving California. But this is a Nio thread, so enough about Tesla.
 

heltok

Active Member
Aug 12, 2014
1,142
9,625
Sweden
I am still struggling to see what tangible assets NIO actually owns.

GM: We are 20% vertical integrated.
Nio: Hold my beer

Nio is not focusing on improving margins if they have zero control of any of the technology. Batteries (including solid state): CATL, FSD computer: Nvidia, Assembly Plant: Jac Motors. Charging/Swapping Stations: State Grid EV Service. Still trying to figure out what asset NIO owns beside a business plan and some schematics. Everyone is taking a cut so where's NIO's margins? I see a lot of other companies who are going to be making money OFF NIO.

So how this company is suppose to give me "not a car company" margins to deserve such valuation?

At some point software will be worth enough margin that they can sell the rest of the car with a loss and still make money. Which is also true for Tesla and Apple.
 
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Singuy

Active Member
Jun 28, 2018
3,292
22,315
US
At some point software will be worth enough margin that they can sell the rest of the car with a loss and still make money. Which is also true for Tesla and Apple.
Robotaxi in China will be a multi year challenge so that revenue will be far far into the distance. I have driven on the streets of Beijing, there are no lane markings and it's a cluster F. Best case we have FSD in the U.S or Canada where people follow traffic laws most of the time. No one follow traffic laws in China. I don't expect Tesla to perfect China for at least half a decade and that's with the 4-5 years head start.
 
Last edited:

heltok

Active Member
Aug 12, 2014
1,142
9,625
Sweden
Robotaxi in China will be a multi year challenge so that revenue will be far far into the distance. I have driven on the streets of Beijing, there are no lane markings and it's a cluster F. Best case we have FSD in the U.S or Canada where people follow traffic laws most of the time. No one follow traffic laws in China. I don't expect Tesla to perfect China for at least half a decade and that's with the 4-5 years head start.
Maybe, but then again we went from solving Pong to solving Starcraft in like 6 years and from Alexnet to GPT-3 in 7 years. Who knows what will happen in the next 5 years. A computer will have much easier task tracking 50 vehicles around it than a human would and has much better understanding of where in 3D space the corners of the vehicle is. If I would struggle in Bejing then I would much rather have a super accurate and alert computer driving me there. And who knows how Beijing will look like in 5 years...
 

Nuclear Fusion

Active Member
Aug 24, 2016
2,059
1,496
Outside a bubble
Initially up over 10% in premarket, which values them at over $100B
Ridiculous
Has pulled back a little

Maybe we have to change our perspectives of what is value vs overvalued - government stimulus & ultra low interest rates around the world are probably inflating asset prices
 

golfcart

Member
Dec 16, 2019
270
359
The 757
Initially up over 10% in premarket, which values them at over $100B
Ridiculous
Has pulled back a little

Maybe we have to change our perspectives of what is value vs overvalued - government stimulus & ultra low interest rates around the world are probably inflating asset prices

I agree that it feels overvalued and that the way these EV companies are being priced seems crazy... but JP Morgan did just raise this target price on Nio to $75 so that might have something to do with it on top of the hype from Nio day.

I’m dumping 25% of my stock if it hits $70 this week, I bought a bunch at $20 and I’m prepared to take a little bit of guaranteed profit even with the chance it keeps rising.
 
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HelloJohnny

Member
May 19, 2018
790
886
Riverside, California
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