All discussion of QuantumScape QS

[ReddyLeaf]

Went looking for news why the SP jumped today. Only thing seems to be previous post. Edit: Probably it wasn’t so smart selling a 45c for $0.90 yesterday. That’s not doing so well. May have to roll that out a week. Certainly didn’t expect this morning’s jump. Fortunately, the 45p that I sold is doing fine. I wonder where we end this week. Hmmmm.

 

[JRP3]

Quantumscape Stock Is Almost Fairly Valued, But There’s More Downside

At this point, most investors will want to hang on to their stock if they already own it. This is because they will want to see if the company can perform as well as it forecasts in its own presentation. In the hope that things turn out better, QS stock could end up much higher.

 

[northtoronto]

up 16% today at $52! Let's hope it holds up

 

[Mengy]

It all sounds promising, but until I see a mass production product with measurable metrics I remain un-invested in QS. For all we know this breakthrough might be nigh impossible to manufacture at scale economically. The performance numbers they gave a few months ago didn't seem much better than Tesla's 4680 cells. Better sure, but not by the margin I was expecting.

I do hope they succeed though because it sounds positive.

 

[chronoreverse]

It all sounds promising, but until I see a mass production product with measurable metrics I remain un-invested in QS. For all we know this breakthrough might be nigh impossible to manufacture at scale economically. The performance numbers they gave a few months ago didn't seem much better than Tesla's 4680 cells. Better sure, but not by the margin I was expecting.

I do hope they succeed though because it sounds positive.

Yeah, I made a bit on the initial jump and then when went low again I took a hard look at the technology and even if it pans out it only matches what Tesla will be doing except a couple years later. Doesn't mean it has no promise but it's not particularly groundbreaking either.

 

[ReddyLeaf]

up 16% today at $52! Let's hope it holds up

QuantumScape and Fisker Get Buy Calls as Analyst Dives Deeper Into EV Stocks
I went looking for news, and it’s because of an Adam Jonas price upgrade. I’m not very happy because my sold 45C is up 850% and I don’t have enough free cash to roll it out to next week. Damn, I could have closed it out yesterday for 50% profit but just assumed it would expire today worthless. Live and learn.

 

[bkp_duke]

QuantumScape and Fisker Get Buy Calls as Analyst Dives Deeper Into EV Stocks
I went looking for news, and it’s because of an Adam Jonas price upgrade. I’m not very happy because my sold 45C is up 850% and I don’t have enough free cash to roll it out to next week. Damn, I could have closed it out yesterday for 50% profit but just assumed it would expire today worthless. Live and learn.

Roll it out further if you really want to keep the shares? Or is the problem no matter how far you roll, the call is still in-the-money?

 

[ReddyLeaf]

Roll it out further if you really want to keep the shares? Or is the problem no matter how far you roll, the call is still in-the-money?

Unfortunately, in my trading IRA I cannot “roll”. I can only buy back (and there must be cash in that account for that purchase and that’s the problem, not enough cash to buy back), followed by a sale. I’m sure there are other brokers that process the roll as a single trade, but not mine. It’s my own fault. I know about this and I’ve done it to myself before, so twice bitten.

It’s not a huge deal, just more learning. I was selling strikes close to the SP, both puts and calls, just as a learning experience. Last week I had sold a 45p/c pair at the same expiration, again just to watch and let one get exercised. In today’s case, it’s four contracts, three of which were previously put to me and I don’t really want them anyway. Not a big deal, just learning money that will someday hopefully turn into 100 TSLA shares. Next week, I’ll probably just sell some 50/60p for 2/19 and try to get them back, Wheel-style.

 

[SMAlset]

Looks like the public warrant investors get an earlier buy in date of March 5, about 3 months earlier. What would be the company’s rationale for this move?

QuantumScape Announces an Amendment to the Warrant Agreement to Advance the Exercise Date of the Public Warrants

BTW today after close is their earnings report and webcast:
QuantumScape - QuantumScape Announces Timing of Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2020 Financial Results and Webcast

“....conference call at 2:00 p.m. Pacific Time (5:00 p.m. Eastern Time). Participating on the call will be Jagdeep Singh, Co-founder and Chief Executive Officer, and Kevin Hettrich, Chief Financial Officer, of QuantumScape.

The call can be accessed via a live webcast accessible on the IR Events Calendar page in the Investor Relations section of our website at https://www.quantumscape.com/. ”

https://event.on24.com/eventRegistration/EventLobbyServlet

 

[SMAlset]

The Investor Letter (with financials) and the Solid State Battery Landscape paper is on their website under Investors. The conference call and Q&A has been posted.

from Investor Letter:
“We are pleased to report for the first time that we have made 4-layer multilayer cells in the 30x30mm form factor, and we have now seen close to 800 cycles at 30°C with over 90% capacity retention at both C/3 and 1C rates – substantially similar to the single-layer cells we reported in December. We used 30x30mm cells, made from separators cut from our standard target commercial area separators, because it allowed us to effectively quadruple the number of test cells as we work to scale up our engineering line capacity.”

The Call covered the pilot facility in San Jose where their test batteries will be manufactured. Among Q&A topics addressed: comparison products out there, market focus of product, other interest from car manufacturers other than VW, location of full battery factory.

 

[SMAlset]

Stock has upward movement today likely on report from company call yesterday and from Soros Fund Management’s purchase of QS stock (~3.32M shares/$280M according to SA article yesterday on company’s report filing).

 

[Doggydogworld]

It's a sign of market sickness that QS and others only talk about EV batteries. Cell phones and tablets are the real market for the first few years of production. But EV is where all the hype and silly money is, so they ignore the viable market and focus on fantasy.

 

[SMAlset]

It's a sign of market sickness that QS and others only talk about EV batteries. Cell phones and tablets are the real market for the first few years of production. But EV is where all the hype and silly money is, so they ignore the viable market and focus on fantasy.

If you listen to the call, they were asked about market focus on car batteries right now. Answer provided I think gave a good reply as to why and even brought up cell phone batteries. My take — more batteries cells needed for vehicles and EVs represent an important segment where safer and faster charging is needed and they can be an important leader. Also relevant statement was that as a startup they felt they needed to focus on one area and excel at it rather than spreading themselves too thin. They feel well funded at this point for the next few years.

 

[SMAlset]

As you probably know if following the stock and this thread that there are numerous legal firms seeking plaintiffs for a class action fraud lawsuit against QS. Basis from what I’ve read comes from a SA article by Brian Morin who claims the tech will never work in cars (at least that’s how lawsuit is being framed and his article is referenced in every legal announcement seeking plaintiffs). The lawsuits claim that due to this conclusion by Morin the stock plummeted and investors from the initial opening to end of year suffered great losses. The runup was to me due to enthusiastic speculation on the part of investors and traders and nothing to do with the company.

Filing date is March 8 on the lawsuits. Given more research data and advancements with achieving a multilayered cell that tests out like their single cell is out their now, I can’t see this going anywhere.

 

[JRP3]

Morin works for a competing battery company, Soteria. I don't think his critiques are valid nor do I think the lawsuit has any merit.

 

[Doggydogworld]

If you listen to the call, they were asked about market focus on car batteries right now. Answer provided I think gave a good reply as to why and even brought up cell phone batteries. My take — more batteries cells needed for vehicles and EVs represent an important segment where safer and faster charging is needed and they can be an important leader. Also relevant statement was that as a startup they felt they needed to focus on one area and excel at it rather than spreading themselves too thin. They feel well funded at this point for the next few years.

They couldn't exactly say "being honest about our most viable market would have prevented us from raising $1 billion", lol. It's all academic at this point (literally). They won't have enough production for either market until at least 2025. They'll ride the EV hype train as long as possible, but do what make sense if/when they actually produce commercial cells.

QS doesn't charge faster and the safety argument is weak since they still have a flammable organic gel electrolyte in the cathode. Not to mention their lithium metal anode spontaneously bursts into flames if exposed to air. They'll take steps to limit such exposure, of course, but all battery makers "take steps" to limit fires.

 

[northtoronto]

Good time to buy right now?

 

[SMAlset]

Good time to buy right now?

up just over 26% this afternoon. We’re longterm hold so expect lots of ups and downs along the way.

 

[heltok]

If you listen to the call, they were asked about market focus on car batteries right now. Answer provided I think gave a good reply as to why and even brought up cell phone batteries. My take — more batteries cells needed for vehicles and EVs represent an important segment where safer and faster charging is needed and they can be an important leader

Leader in what? Volume? Cost? If we believe the Tesla battery day 4680 graph, plaid+ etc, “power” will not the biggest problem going forward.

Is safer charging really needed? I bet by 2025 Tesla will have made charging pretty damn safe already.

Imo what QS might be the leader at is understanding of dendrites. But will this translate into batteries that are competitive for EVs? Imo no. I think there might be a case for using their batteries in airplanes though.

 

[chronoreverse]

They're leaders of understanding dendrites in solid metal lithium ion batteries but I don't think it's quite the same level of problem for more normal lithium ion batteries in the first place.