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All discussion of QuantumScape QS

Discussion in 'TSLA Investor Discussions' started by TSLA Pilot, Dec 2, 2020.

  1. ckessel

    ckessel Active Member

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    My thanks to the folks that said it smelled like a bubble. I was holding a LEAP for Dec 2021, but those posts made me dig into market caps and think further and I got out at $115.

    Now, I'm on the other end of the thinking. Trying to figure out what a fair price is to get back in. Without any sales or product yet, it's really hard to come to any conclusions :). I suppose something not too far off the initial price of $10-15 before it took of, at least until there's some more tangible evidence of the product and when it comes to market.
     
  2. SMAlset

    SMAlset Well-Known Member

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    #162 SMAlset, Jan 4, 2021
    Last edited: Jan 4, 2021
    As I understand it, and could very well be wrong in this view as I’m pretty new to this, this stock issuance and subsequent sell off I believe was brought on because of Kensington Capital Acquisition Corp. warrants that were issued prior to the merger with QuantumScape which could be converted to QS stock based on an agreement between KCAC and QS. I had read about a potential lawsuit over this on BusinessWire back in December (found story again and linked to below) and someone on this thread around that time mentioned a Reddit thread on this issue over when stock could be sold. I read the agreement (link below). If I understand the agreement correctly people who held KCAC warrants could turn them in in exchange for QS stock that could be sold “the later of” 180 days of completion of the merger or a date that was I think set out to be in maybe June of 2021.

    With the QS stock skyrocketing in price with so much investor interest, the warrant holders wanted to be able to trade in for stock they could sell now. Believe I read that they were refused to convert warrants to stock at this time due to the agreement’s “later of” term, and so a lawsuit was going to be filed against QS.

    BusinessWire article on legal action:

    Shahmoon Keller PLLC Files Suit on Behalf of Holders of QuantumScape Corporation Warrants

    I looked over the lengthy agreement (not attorney just layman) and believed QS had good ground to stand on.

    Agreement filed with SEC (see Pg 5, Duration of Warrants 3.2):
    cik1811414-ex41_12.htm

    Had not seen anything related to this legal action against QS since. However just my thought here after hearing about the recent stock issuance is that QS, faced with a costly lawsuit, decided to go this route instead. Again not a lawyer and not sure if there were defects in the agreement. Again just my opinion here. Guessing the warrants were subsequently converted to stock in the last few days and then those shareholders sold off in volume dropping the share price.

    Given KCAC had no product but sought to make any money from a merger, these warrants holders would be anxious to sell. They weren’t particularly interested in shares in the acquired company and would not be employees of QS who likely have stock options in QS with a longer vesting period but instead just looking for a quick return in KCAC warrants after what they thought was 180 days.

    Love to hear what more educated people here think.
     
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  3. SMAlset

    SMAlset Well-Known Member

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    As for the two recent lawsuits mentioned based on the SA article on QS, I have no doubt the battery savvy individuals that spoke during the QS Battery Day presentation thoroughly reviewed QS’ test results. If they had serious issues with the numbers, I doubt they would have agreed to be part of the presentation.
     
  4. JRP3

    JRP3 Hyperactive Member

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    QS having a bit of a recovery this morning.
     
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  5. Cosmacelf

    Cosmacelf Well-Known Member

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    QS shows one of the problems with complex SPAC acquisitions...
     
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  6. Spacep0d

    Spacep0d Member

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    I have 31 shares in QS. I like that JB Straubel is on the board, that VW and Gates are investors, and I see possibilities here with a whole new battery tech. As others have said, either Tesla (TSLA) leads the way with battery tech and I hope they do, or QS comes up with something amazing and shareholders (and EV owners) benefit. I'm HODL here too.
     
  7. JRP3

    JRP3 Hyperactive Member

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    • Informative x 2
  8. SMAlset

    SMAlset Well-Known Member

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    #168 SMAlset, Jan 5, 2021
    Last edited: Jan 5, 2021
    This morning’s Barron’s article on QS with Jagdeep comments. Much more informative than the Yahoo Finance one.

    https://www.barrons.com/articles/quantumscapes-ceo-talked-about-the-stocks-40-drop-a-clear-reason-is-hard-to-find-51609858767

    So the recent SEC S-1 filed on the 50M in shares was for the subscription PIPE shares (Private Investment in Public Equity—investment firms, mutual funds, large accredited investors who got in at discount very early on), not involving the KCAC warrant holders who filed a lawsuit over the exercise date a year out (injunction date hearing of January 19). The PIPE shares were priced at $10/share back on 11/25 and once the filing was made and in effect in January they became available for sale, unlike the KCAC warrants.

    Reddit’s SPAC_Time posted this link to the S-1 filings:
    EDGAR Search Results
     
    • Informative x 3
  9. Cosmacelf

    Cosmacelf Well-Known Member

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    Perfect example of the troubles of being a public company. The CEO is trying to keep his head down, executing, but now he has to deal with the press and lawyers on this crap.
     
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  10. MP3Mike

    MP3Mike Well-Known Member

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    • Informative x 5
  11. JRP3

    JRP3 Hyperactive Member

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    QS taking off again.
     
  12. SMAlset

    SMAlset Well-Known Member

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    #172 SMAlset, Jan 8, 2021
    Last edited: Jan 8, 2021
    Saw this article this morning but haven’t had a chance to check out QS’s site yet or see other analysis of it.

    QuantumScape (QS) Provides Another Encouraging Update Regarding the Ongoing Testing of Its Solid-State Batteries – Will This Unleash Another Bullish Wave?

    There are I think 4 law firms out there that I’ve noticed that are seeking plaintiffs for a class action lawsuit against QS based on Brian Morin’s analysis of the December presentation (all lawsuits refer to his SA article as a basis). I still continue to think that the caliber and support of the individuals in the battery field that have backed QS at presentation time give me confidence that they believe QS’s research can lead to a viable solution for car batteries, along with the fact that Volkswagen and Continental are investors as the article mentions.

    Brian Morin is CEO and founder of Soteria Battery Innovation Group working on making lithium ion batteries safe. SAE International member connections lists “Brian has over 200 international patents and applications on subjects ranging from advanced molecular metals to high performance fibers to plastic additives and advanced battery materials.” From the Soteria site: “Soteria is using a new architecture based on separators that will never ever melt or shrink and current collectors that are made from metallized plastic film that retreats in the presence of a defect, like a fuse. In addition, they eliminate over 90% of the copper, reducing weight and cost and increasing energy density. ”
     
    • Informative x 3
  13. SMAlset

    SMAlset Well-Known Member

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    Had wanted to add to above post that Brian Morin is also COO of Dreamweaver International, that manufactures battery separators.

    Dreamweaver Battery Separators
     
    • Informative x 1
  14. JRP3

    JRP3 Hyperactive Member

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    Soteria is interesting, The Limiting Factor had some discussion of them.
     
  15. northtoronto

    northtoronto Member

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    Buying QS at $96 x 250 shares seems like a big big mistake for me.
    Will I ever make money on this??
     
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  16. JRP3

    JRP3 Hyperactive Member

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    • Informative x 1
  17. JRP3

    JRP3 Hyperactive Member

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    A fairly reasonable look at QS by a Motley Fool writer Is QuantumScape a Millionaire-Maker Stock? | The Motley Fool
    Summary:

     
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  18. heltok

    heltok Active Member

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    Well positioned, ie their competition is almost as good, at a much lower price and scaling rapidly.
     
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  19. SMAlset

    SMAlset Well-Known Member

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    #179 SMAlset, Jan 28, 2021
    Last edited: Jan 28, 2021
    So what do you think VW’s global business is worth? I think all manufacturers will be agressively trying to secure enough batteries for their production lines and it will be more of an issue as time goes on. More companies are planning gigafactories but those will take some time to be built and producing and in volume especially with new technology involved. Less efficient batteries will still sell and just go into smaller less expensive vehicles. I know people here seem to look at this as Tesla vs QS but I don’t see it like that. Elon just said in the call that he’ll buy as many batteries from other battery manufacturers as they can sell him. Between cars and battery back up systems like PWs, megapacks that are taking off, should be a pretty in demand product I think regardless of who the manufacturer is or at this point li-ion or solid state. As he indicated he didn’t see the Model S/X getting the new batteries still for several years and the semi would need 5x that if I understood him correctly. Tesla’s not the only manufacturer with trucks and semis in the works. Efficiency, safety concerns, etc. and production will set the price/margin. However, I don’t see demand for anyone’s battery tech being a problem for a long time what with Europe, China, US going all EV down the road. I’m not concerned about QS long term.
     
  20. heltok

    heltok Active Member

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    If True, QuantumScape Has Made the Biggest Leap in Batteries Since the Debut of Lithium-Ion
    Holme pulled together all his engineers. “Time out,” he recalls saying. “Put your work down. Everybody, stage left. We’re going to start working on this dendrite problem. If we don’t solve this, we don’t have a product, we don’t have a company.” For a year, the entire engineering team worked only on dendrites. They collected every known theory about what causes them. First was that if the separator were hard enough, dendrites could physically not poke through and short circuit the battery. Only, that turned out not to be true, because lithium managed to knife their way through hard ceramics anyway. Then they looked at the theory that a soft separator would do the trick. It didn’t work, either.

    Finally, they discarded the literature. “We had to go back to first principles and come up with our own theory of what causes dendrites,” Singh said. “And we had to actually develop our own metrology, which are measurement techniques to measure the quality of the material we were making because it turns out that some of the things that cause dendrites were not even measurable with normal metrology techniques.”

    In 2015, the team finally settled on an explanation for lithium dendrites. They began testing it on the materials they had gathered. Finally, they found one that policed the dendrites. It was great. “My personal depression started to lift,” Singh said.

    Only, they had spent five years to reach this stage, and all they really had was a tiny shard of material. They needed to make it larger and larger and better and better, with absolutely no defects such as pinholes that would attract dendrites. Each step up in size took six months to a year. In all, this phase required another five years. The last step, made in the end of 2019 and into last year, was taking the cell from 30-by-30 millimeters in size to 70-by-85.

    So what did they discover? What causes dendrites? They aren’t saying. “We may make it public eventually,” Singh said. “But the industry doesn’t know this yet and it took a lot of work and sweat and blood to get there, so we feel that if we share that it makes it easier for competitors to enter as well. So we’re trying to avoid sharing that.”
     
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