All discussion of Rivian Automotive

[zecar]

Cybertruck should pull in some SUV buyers. Plenty of Model S and 3 buyers weren't particularly interested in four door sedan.

I think with Cybertruck and Rivian we will see the pickup penetrate the affluent metro market generally for the first time

Is the Cybertruck with the cover closed and the back open a pickup or SUV? I'm not sure if the back wall is removable on CT, but it seems the obvious design.

 

[Brando]

Time is #1. I think we shall see only Tesla speed ahead - still won't meet demand & neither will anyone else. Let us see IF ANY ONE can do ~50% growth YoY - Tesla often does even more than 50% growth Year Over Year Model 3/Y except Model S/X. Mach e? Audi eTron? i3? Porsche ? Lightening ? any of the VWs? Rivian? Lucid?

Some one let us know when any one does ~50% growth on any model YOY.

Side Note:
Ford Lightning planned production has doubled. Can Ford now produce?
Mach e production growth? New factory in China - when?
Any VW brands showing rapid growth?
I doubt any Legacy Auto will show +50% Year Over Year growth. I hope to be surprised.

 

[Doggydogworld]

Side Note:
Ford Lightning planned production has doubled. Can Ford now produce?

I never found a good number for planned 2022 production, but they plan to make 80k MY23s and hit a 150k/year run rate in mid-2023 (around the time they start up MY24 production).

Mach e production growth? New factory in China - when?

Ford plans to reach a 200k Mach E per year rate in 2023.
They started building Mach Es in China last year. I don't expect it to be a big seller or require a new factory.

Any VW brands showing rapid growth?

Overall? No. VW Group grew BEV sales 95% last year, actually higher than Tesla. BEVs totaled 453k, plus 310k PHEVs. Growth was spread across all brands, but not quite evenly. They showed 66% y/y BEV growth in Q1, but off a depressed base. I see well under 50% EV growth this year, though China should be higher as they have a lot of catch-up to do. They will continue to shift their mix toward BEV vs. PHEV, so maybe BEV growth hits 50%.

I doubt any Legacy Auto will show +50% Year Over Year growth. I hope to be surprised.

Some will show high % increase off a low base. Toyota sold very few BEVs last year, for example, and can hardly avoid 50% growth now that they are shipping the bz4xghpiohseq. Not sure about overall EV growth even though ramping RAV4 and Prius Prime models would be smart at today's high fuel prices.

Ford will grow BEVs >50%. GM might if you ignore their SGMW JV (I don't count those as GM sales, but some do).

 

[mltv]

Ford is selling 8 million shares of once high-flying EV maker Rivian, sources say

Ford Motor is selling 8 million of its Rivian Automotive shares as the insider lockup for the stock expires on Sunday, sources told CNBC's David Faber.

www.cnbc.com

”JPMorgan Chase also plans to sell a Rivian share block of between 13 million and 15 million for an unknown seller, sources told Faber. Both blocks of stocks are priced at $26.90 a share.”

 

[RobStark]

Ford didn't want to sell RIVN at ~$150. Or $60. But at $26.90.

For their investment in Rivian they could have bought all of Lucid.

Lucid pitched them the idea. Before Saudi PiF came to the rescue.

 

[mongo]

Ford didn't want to sell RIVN at ~$150. Or $60. But at $26.90.

For their investment in Rivian they could have bought all of Lucid.

Lucid pitched them the idea. Before Saudi PiF came to the rescue.

Didn't want to, or couldn't due to lock up period?

 

[RobStark]

Didn't want to, or couldn't due to lock up period?

Ford owned 12% of Rivian since early 2019.

Couldn't sell last 180 days.

 

[Cosmacelf]

Ford is selling 8 million shares of once high-flying EV maker Rivian, sources say

Ford Motor is selling 8 million of its Rivian Automotive shares as the insider lockup for the stock expires on Sunday, sources told CNBC's David Faber.

www.cnbc.com

”JPMorgan Chase also plans to sell a Rivian share block of between 13 million and 15 million for an unknown seller, sources told Faber. Both blocks of stocks are priced at $26.90 a share.”

Anyone know what price per share Ford paid for those Rivian shares? Likewise what did Amazon pay?

 

[betstarship]

Initial investment was $800M, it was $10.2B at the end of 2021 (which it was priced $103.69).

Ford Made BANK On Its Rivian Investment

How does a 1,000-percent return sound?

www.motortrend.com

So....doing the math, they bought at $8.13 / share?

 

[Msicario]

Ford is selling 8 million shares of once high-flying EV maker Rivian, sources say

Ford Motor is selling 8 million of its Rivian Automotive shares as the insider lockup for the stock expires on Sunday, sources told CNBC's David Faber.

www.cnbc.com

”JPMorgan Chase also plans to sell a Rivian share block of between 13 million and 15 million for an unknown seller, sources told Faber. Both blocks of stocks are priced at $26.90 a share.”

Yikes, not very good news for RIVIAN

 

[Brando]

quick google search:

Within 24 months, Ford will have the global capacity to produce 600,000 battery electric vehicles annually. In addition to scaling Lightning production, Ford recently announced the tripling of production for the Mustang Mach-E and expects to reach 200,000-plus units per year by 2023.Jan 4, 2022

Ford Planning to Nearly Double All-Electric F-150 Lightning ...​

We shall see IF Ford can execute.

 

[betstarship]

quick google search:

Within 24 months, Ford will have the global capacity to produce 600,000 battery electric vehicles annually. In addition to scaling Lightning production, Ford recently announced the tripling of production for the Mustang Mach-E and expects to reach 200,000-plus units per year by 2023.Jan 4, 2022

Ford Planning to Nearly Double All-Electric F-150 Lightning ...​

We shall see IF Ford can execute.

Just in a well executed world, what would be annual run-rate EV production or market share of the worldwide car market with that level of global capacity across Tesla, Ford, VW, Nissan, Rivian, etc. in 2024? Ballparking it:

3-5M annually?

- Tesla 3M
- Everyone else 2M?

Global vehicle market is where nowadays?

 

[Doggydogworld]

- Tesla 3M
- Everyone else 2M?

"Everyone else" sold 5.5m EVs last year. 3.5m BEVs, 2m PHEVs. Figure ~8m this year, maybe a bit less due to supply chain and war. 2024? I can only guess somewhere in the 12-15m range. Europe is scheduled to level off the next couple years before ramping again in 2025. China is now 56% of the market and gov't support seems strong but is unpredictable. A few years ago they suddenly changed subsidies and had three years of nearly flat EV sales.

Plug-in share is above 20% now in both China and Europe. The US lacks the regulations need to force that many sales, so is a huge laggard at 4-5%.

Looking at individual auto groups, BYD should do 1.3-1.4m this year. Almost all China, so figure 2.5m in 2024 if gov't support stays strong. They went from 80% BEV to almost 50/50 last year. Dolphin should tilt the scales back toward BEV somewhat.

VW Group has 600k MEB capacity in China with another 300k coming this year. Unfortunately MEB demand in China is closer to 100k, lol. They have factory capacity for almost 1m BEVs in Europe, including non-MEBs like eUP, e-tron and Taycan/e-tron GT. They do need most of that due to 95g. Chattanooga has ~100k capacity now with plans to expand for 2024 Buzz production. So 2m++ "capacity" in 2024, maybe 1.5m in use.

Ford's 600k run rate in (late) 2023 is the only other capacity number I've seen. 95g forces Stellantis, Daimler and BMW to sell EVs. With overseas added in they should collectively be over 1m this year. Figure 1.5-2.0m in 2024. They are PHEV-heavy in Europe, tilting toward BEV over time.

SAIC could hit 1m this year, but that's largely due to the $4.5k Hongguang Mini made by their SGMW JV. Even with more expensive variants they aren't a real player in terms of revenue.

Hyundai/Kia and Geely/Volvo should be in the half-million range this year. Maybe Renault/Nissan, too, though they seem to have dropped off the map lately. Figure 2m total for these three in 2024? Just a guess, really.

 

[Msicario]

"Everyone else" sold 5.5m EVs last year. 3.5m BEVs, 2m PHEVs. Figure ~8m this year, maybe a bit less due to supply chain and war. 2024? I can only guess somewhere in the 12-15m range. Europe is scheduled to level off the next couple years before ramping again in 2025. China is now 56% of the market and gov't support seems strong but is unpredictable. A few years ago they suddenly changed subsidies and had three years of nearly flat EV sales.

Plug-in share is above 20% now in both China and Europe. The US lacks the regulations need to force that many sales, so is a huge laggard at 4-5%.

Looking at individual auto groups, BYD should do 1.3-1.4m this year. Almost all China, so figure 2.5m in 2024 if gov't support stays strong. They went from 80% BEV to almost 50/50 last year. Dolphin should tilt the scales back toward BEV somewhat.

VW Group has 600k MEB capacity in China with another 300k coming this year. Unfortunately MEB demand in China is closer to 100k, lol. They have factory capacity for almost 1m BEVs in Europe, including non-MEBs like eUP, e-tron and Taycan/e-tron GT. They do need most of that due to 95g. Chattanooga has ~100k capacity now with plans to expand for 2024 Buzz production. So 2m++ "capacity" in 2024, maybe 1.5m in use.

Ford's 600k run rate in (late) 2023 is the only other capacity number I've seen. 95g forces Stellantis, Daimler and BMW to sell EVs. With overseas added in they should collectively be over 1m this year. Figure 1.5-2.0m in 2024. They are PHEV-heavy in Europe, tilting toward BEV over time.

SAIC could hit 1m this year, but that's largely due to the $4.5k Hongguang Mini made by their SGMW JV. Even with more expensive variants they aren't a real player in terms of revenue.

Hyundai/Kia and Geely/Volvo should be in the half-million range this year. Maybe Renault/Nissan, too, though they seem to have dropped off the map lately. Figure 2m total for these three in 2024? Just a guess, really.

After all that being said; Only 1% of all the vehicles in the world are currently EV’s

 

[RobStark]

GM is spending $6.6B to build 1M/year BEV North American capacity by 2025.

GM to spend $6.6 billion on EV plant investments in bid to dethrone Tesla in electric car sales by 2025

GM has projected it will sell more than 1 million EVs globally by mid-decade and overtake Tesla as the top US-based seller of electric vehicles.

www.cnbc.com

 

[Cosmacelf]

Yikes, not very good news for RIVIAN

[Ford Selling] ... yeah, I wonder what Rivian did to piss off Ford. When MB invested in Tesla, they held onto the stock for quite a while and sold at a very healthy profit. Didn't hurt the stock price at all. Today, RIVN dropped 20%.

 

[Msicario]

Anyone know what price per share Ford paid for those Rivian shares? Likewise what did Amazon pay?

Don’t know but they are reporting at least a $1 billion loss on those RIVIAN shares. YIKES They figured it’s probably going to get worse before it gets better..

To bad and sad that RIVIAN is taking such a nasty hit It’s a nice truck; I’ve seen at least three the last week.. nice

 

[Msicario]

[Ford Selling] ... yeah, I wonder what Rivian did to piss off Ford. When MB invested in Tesla, they held onto the stock for quite a while and sold at a very healthy profit. Didn't hurt the stock price at all. Today, RIVN dropped 20%.

WOW that’s a real negative hit. Wonder if they will ever recover?
Super nice truck, I saw one last night in our neighborhood..

 

[Merrill]

Not looking good for Rivian, I hope they make it I have a deposit on the R1T and when I saw it at their event in Sonoma last year I was impressed. Build quality and fit and finish was exceptional.

 

[Cosmacelf]

Rivian‘s vehicles will make it. Whether Rivian as an independent company will make it is something else entirely. Their market cap is closely approaching their cash on hand. Throw in the factory, IP, orders, etc. and the company‘s book value is worth far more than stock price right now. Hmmm.