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Alliant Credit Union 1.49% for 72 months

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How can I estimate the trade-in value of a finance purchase versus the guaranteed resale value at the end of my lease? My intention has always been to traded in after three years for the 'newest' larger battery and second generation of AP hardware.
You can use things like 17% annually or look at the resale of a 3 year old Model S. Or google tesla depreciation and see what others think. My best guess is more than 40% and less than 60%.
Also if tesla guarantees a resale that means they think they can sell it as CPO for more than that so you should be able to sell privately between those 2 figures.
 
I haven't taken delivery yet, but have been quoted attached lease. I am thinking that the residual value is too high and maybe I just should buy the car instead of leasing. The price is too high to start with which is why the residual is too high. I didn't get to negotiate the price because it was an inventory car. The lease has a 4% interest rate which is high. It also costs me 5K to do the lease on top of the monthly payments. The car was built in Nov 2014 and has a lot of miles on it (25,700). Advice?

3 yr lease
Lease payment for 15K miles/yr. 1,108
residual value 71,086
acquisition fee 695
lease down 5,000
Sales Price 105,450

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You can use things like 17% annually or look at the resale of a 3 year old Model S. Or google tesla depreciation and see what others think. My best guess is more than 40% and less than 60%.
Also if tesla guarantees a resale that means they think they can sell it as CPO for more than that so you should be able to sell privately between those 2 figures.
Tks. I can now plug in the numbers my guess is going to be about a 3-5,000 difference.
 
FYI Alliant has a microsite with the Tesla financing promo and a link to an online application. I submitted directly there and received email with pre approval same day:

Good afternoon,
Thank you for applying for a Tesla loan with ACU. Your application was pre-approved for 30 days up to $xxxx at 1.49% for any term up to 72 months. If you would like to proceed with this loan please fax or e-mail me a copy of the final MVPA from your delivery specialist showing Alliant as the lender. Once I receive it I will call you to finalize the loan details.
Have a great day!

Very easy to do, here's the site Tesla Car Loans from Alliant
 
@loganitix, great choice. i bought my MS 18 months ago and got 1.74% for 72 months. Great deal at the time. I plan on keeping the MS for 8 years, so good angle to reduce overall costs in the long term. Leasing seems to be an expensive alternative, especially when mileage would likely exceed the annual lease limit.
I will also say, as you mentioned, Alliant really knows their stuff about Teslas. They know how their process works and guided me through the deal. They are a quality outfit.
 
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Dumb question, but Tesla's lending page (Tesla Lending) referenced alliant's 1.49% rate. Does that mean that it's eligible for the buyback guarantee?
This is actually a fantastic question, thanks for bringing it up. Your link shows, to me, that Tesla uses Alliant for financing. I'd love to hear that financing with them keeps the Tesla buyback guarantee eligibility. Great post.
 
Dumb question, but Tesla's lending page (Tesla Lending) referenced alliant's 1.49% rate. Does that mean that it's eligible for the buyback guarantee?

Just ordered a MX Thursday and went in to do a test drive today. Asked this very question and was told that despite this relationship Alliant financing does NOT qualify for the buyback.

Not an issue for me as I have a habit of holding cars for much longer than the 36-39 month period when the buyback is an option.
 
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Funny, but my rep did not tell me that the lower rate by Allianz would not include the buy back 'guarantee'. Have any of you actually gotten to the point of accepting the loan and ensure what the actual terms are? Is Tesla financing different than this one by Allianz? Not very clear to me....