ALP electric vehicle policy

[paulp]

I’m not saying we’d be an exporter of batteries.

The batteries we’d make domestically would be used in Australia. This is only to help create a supply chain of batteries not as dependant on other nations. We’d use the batteries to electrify our transport industry, store renewable electricity generation (which means we may actually export electricity cheaper than neighbouring countries)

200gWh of batteries is 200,000,000 TONNES of (assuming 100wh per kg) material that we wouldn’t be shipping overseas but instead monetising far more rapidly right here in our own backyard. The utility of that 200m tonnes is wasted by exporting and in the long run, with automation, paying workers $1 per day isn’t the biggest cost saving anymore— having a tighter supply chain is.

if China want to outcompete and make cheaper batteries than we can make (including a small import levy) then that’s a great outcome, means we will be buying some seriously cheap batteries.

But its still going to be cheaper to buy them from another country, and rightly or wrongly australian consumers generally buy on price. Its not something governments should subsidise

 

[Didaho]

But its still going to be cheaper to buy them from another country, and rightly or wrongly australian consumers generally buy on price. Its not something governments should subsidise

We successfully maintained an entire local car manufacturing ecosystem against similar offshore competitive disadvantages with only marginal interventionist economic drivers for decades.
I'm not saying that Li-ion cell manufacture should be specifically targeted but arbitrary boundaries around what constitutes allowable government assistance is a recipe for failure. Let industry/entrepreneurs make the cases for consideration. And for anything in this sector any assistance should be in the form of subsidies not tariffs.

 

[GrimRe]

But its still going to be cheaper to buy them from another country, and rightly or wrongly australian consumers generally buy on price. Its not something governments should subsidise

Why would it be cheaper to buy from another country when the material cost makes up 95% of the cell cost in the long run; and we can get those raw materials faster and cheaper than any other country?

 

[moa999]

We successfully maintained an entire local car manufacturing ecosystem against similar offshore competitive disadvantages with only marginal interventionist economic drivers for decades.

Certainly wasn't marginal by the end.

But in most of those days we were competing against US and UK cars, with broadly similar wages.

Not Japan, Korea, Thailand and China.

Put simply the global car market has changed.

 

[Didaho]

$700 million Australian electric car manufacturing plans collapse

Ambitious plans to revive vehicle manufacturing in Australia have been ditched, with local company Nexport blaming a lack of government subsidies and support.

www.caradvice.com.au

It was only the peak in the exchange rate that broke the camel along with utter disinterest from the Federal govt. Our wage bills will be similar to Japan and Korea with China fast narrowing the gap. There will always be cheaper labour on the planet - offshoring is common even from China manufacturers (Mongolia, Cambodia).

 

[paulp]

$700 million Australian electric car manufacturing plans collapse

Ambitious plans to revive vehicle manufacturing in Australia have been ditched, with local company Nexport blaming a lack of government subsidies and support.

www.caradvice.com.au

It was only the peak in the exchange rate that broke the camel along with utter disinterest from the Federal govt. Our wage bills will be similar to Japan and Korea with China fast narrowing the gap. There will always be cheaper labour on the planet - offshoring is common even from China manufacturers (Mongolia, Cambodia).

The average wage in china is around aud$20k and they dont get tomspend 20-25% of their paid time not working, so productivity is higher. Thats a long way to go to narrow the gap given the wages and productivity conditions of holden production line workers before its closure

 

[Shock-On-T]

This pictograph of the last 70 years of car manufacturing by country is interesting. Just shows what Australia is up against if it want to compete industrially.

 

[moa999]

And while Australia never made that list, note the drop of Canada, France and Spain over time

 

[Didaho]

And while Australia never made that list, note the drop of Canada, France and Spain over time

I didn't notice many drops in absolute terms, more displacement by emerging producers.
I was in the UK for a couple of years when their government abandoned Rover, MG etc. Production went straight across the Channel to countries with similar economic parameters. I was there building import terminals inc. RORO to cater for the strategy.

 

[Shock-On-T]

I didn't notice many drops in absolute terms, more displacement by emerging producers.
I was in the UK for a couple of years when their government abandoned Rover, MG etc. Production went straight across the Channel to countries with similar economic parameters. I was there building import terminals inc. RORO to cater for the strategy.

Quite true, it is mainly the total that is increasing, smaller slices of a bigger pie.
US production is interesting, seems to be a resurgence. I guess Tesla is making it's own small contribution to that.
I often think I'm driving the world's most redneck car. An American muscle car powered by Hunter Valley coal.

 

[Didaho]

Quite true, it is mainly the total that is increasing, smaller slices of a bigger pie.
US production is interesting, seems to be a resurgence. I guess Tesla is making it's own small contribution to that.
I often think I'm driving the world's most redneck car. An American muscle car powered by Hunter Valley coal.

Install solar or move to Tassie (I'd say SA but with yesterday's announcement they'll behind the curve again pretty soon).

 

[paulp]

Install solar or move to Tassie (I'd say SA but with yesterday's announcement they'll behind the curve again pretty soon).

Wouldn’t worry too much about announcements in SA. They rarely proceed.

 

[Vostok]

Wouldn’t worry too much about announcements in SA. They rarely proceed.

Dunno about that, but this deal includes $50M for a new electricity interconnector between SA and New South Wales (so SA can export more solar and wind to renewable laggard NSW! ) and $110M will be allocated to concessional finance for energy storage projects including the use of solar thermal technology, which doesn’t sound terrible.

The gas targets for 2030 will be irrelevant, because it won’t be required. It’s just a sop to the fossils.

As far as the hydrogen goes, I think hydrogen may play a niche role in things that will be really difficult to electrify with current energy storage technologies, such as oceanic transport and long-haul passenger planes. So I’m willing to give the benefit of the doubt for that one. For now.

 

[Didaho]

Dunno about that, but this deal includes $50M for a new electricity interconnector between SA and New South Wales (so SA can export more solar and wind to renewable laggard NSW! ) and $110M will be allocated to concessional finance for energy storage projects including the use of solar thermal technology, which doesn’t sound terrible.

The gas targets for 2030 will be irrelevant, because it won’t be required. It’s just a sop to the fossils.

As far as the hydrogen goes, I think hydrogen may play a niche role in things that will be really difficult to electrify with current energy storage technologies, such as oceanic transport and long-haul passenger planes. So I’m willing to give the benefit of the doubt for that one. For now.

The interconnector and gas look like the only tangible things there.
Package is 1.08 billion. 0.6 billion covers the interconnector, CCS subsidy/research, thermal solar etc. and hydrogen export (if they meant anything but Blue, they would have said so).
Leaves about 0.45 billion, nothing else announced but gas subsidies.
"a gas target of an additional 50 petajoules per annum by the end of 2023" (increasing by another 30Pj by 2030).
“The focus on gas will help South Australia meet its own gas needs and assist efforts to prevent forecast shortfalls in the broader east coast gas market from 2023, as part of our gas-fired recovery.”

 

[paulp]

The interconnector and gas look like the only tangible things there.
Package is 1.08 billion. 0.6 billion covers the interconnector, CCS subsidy/research, thermal solar etc. and hydrogen export (if they meant anything but Blue, they would have said so).
Leaves about 0.45 billion, nothing else announced but gas subsidies.
"a gas target of an additional 50 petajoules per annum by the end of 2023" (increasing by another 30Pj by 2030).
“The focus on gas will help South Australia meet its own gas needs and assist efforts to prevent forecast shortfalls in the broader east coast gas market from 2023, as part of our gas-fired recovery.”

There was $400 million for carbon capture, hydrogen, and electric vehicles. Not sure why they were lumped together. The interconnector is important. Just wished they’d stop announcing it and get on with it.

 

[Didaho]

There was $400 million for carbon capture, hydrogen, and electric vehicles. Not sure why they were lumped together. The interconnector is important. Just wished they’d stop announcing it and get on with it.

They're lumped together because they're mostly speculative - I've included in the 0.6 billion. Hydrogen and CCS in this bucket could also be for gas producers to tap.
Remainder ~ 450 million can only be nominated for gas, I'd consider those contracts as good as signed.

Energy and Emissions Reduction Agreement with South Australia | Prime Minister of Australia

www.pm.gov.au

 

[Vostok]

I do find it “interesting” that the Feds are more than happy to set targets for gas (“an additional 50 petajoules per annum by the end of 2023 and a stretch target of 80 petajoules per annum by 2030”) but are totally allergic to setting emissions reductions and renewable energy targets beyond 2030, and resolutely against setting “stretch” targets for either - before or after 2030.

If you’re motivated, you’ll set a target. If you’re completely uninterested (or hostile), you won’t. Says it all.

 

[paulp]

They're lumped together because they're mostly speculative - I've included in the 0.6 billion. Hydrogen and CCS in this bucket could also be for gas producers to tap.
Remainder ~ 450 million can only be nominated for gas, I'd consider those contracts as good as signed.

Energy and Emissions Reduction Agreement with South Australia | Prime Minister of Australia

www.pm.gov.au

The electric cars (for government use) and a charger network were previously announced, around a week before they announced the EV tax. Not sure that purchasing these cars is speculative, although in SA everything is speculative until you see the contract signed, especially end dates.

 

[cafz]

The interconnector is important. Just wished they’d stop announcing it and get on with it.

That's kind of this Government's MO in general - constantly announcing and re-announcing the same things, coming up a bit short in the actual delivery!

 

[paulp]

That's kind of this Government's MO in general - constantly announcing and re-announcing the same things, coming up a bit short in the actual delivery!

They all do it. SA has had its interconnector announced under federal and state labor and liberal governments and combinations thereof.