Alternative Energy Investor Discussions

[ShortSlaver]

What would make SolarCity's Q1 report justify the recent steep price increases?

Maybe today's the day to buy some Puts...

When the stock moved over $29 I dumped my lot of MAY $30 C's. I was under water on those for awhile after falling like 15% just recently and was able to double my money - good enough for me.

I think SCTY is a great company and will be quite successful, but it is crazy what has happened the last few days with it. However, market momentum generally beats reason in the short term.

If I bought PUT's I would go a couple months down the road with them. But with the crazy volatility, premiums are quite high.

 

[kenliles]

I think it's running up on Elon/TSLA halo coupled with impending SuperCharger announcement potential; should pull back after that news would be my guess (unless the announcement is a total killer of course)

 

[Citizen-T]

I thought I heard somewhere that Tesla's credit is not good enough and the banks that are working with SolarCity won't allow them to lease the panels. If this is true, I don't see how the Supercharger announcement is going to help them. Unless Elon plans to raise capital and outright purchase the panels.

 

[kenliles]

I thought I heard somewhere that Tesla's credit is not good enough and the banks that are working with SolarCity won't allow them to lease the panels. If this is true, I don't see how the Supercharger announcement is going to help them. Unless Elon plans to raise capital and outright purchase the panels.

I think their credit was insufficient for the lease program- Elon put up his own equity to solve that problem; Maybe a similar problem exists for SolarCity SuperCharger as you say. Maybe a similar solution would suffice- Guess it depends on what the announcement entails. For example if someone like McDonalds is involved, those credit issues may not be there. Good point to raise though

 

[smorgasbord]

That's exactly what I said about Tesla...

We both understand what makes Tesla unique. I don't see what makes Solar City unique, or have anywhere near the same long term advantages.

Here's the current chain for June Puts - anyone got suggestions?

 

[imherkimer]

@ smorgasbord I know you don't see what makes Solar City unique, and its clear that you don't follow the explanations that have been offered on this thread. Here it is in a nutshell: long term, SCTY is not simply a solar installer, they are a future utility! The more their systems are built out (and they will last for decades) the more the return on power generation will eclipse return on lease payments...... long term SCTY business model will see compounded returns, with very little overhead.

 

[kenliles]

there's pretty decent support in the $23-$24 range; Sell-Open $25 might net some cash

 

[ShortSlaver]

We both understand what makes Tesla unique. I don't see what makes Solar City unique, or have anywhere near the same long term advantages.

Here's the current chain for June Puts - anyone got suggestions?

View attachment 21790

I don't like any of them at those premiums.

 

[smorgasbord]

long term, SCTY is not simply a solar installer, they are a future utility!

An electric utility company is more than just power generation. SCTY is heavily dependent on electric utilities, which are regional entities at their largest, for their transmission and distribution capabilities.

The economics for SCTY today are heavily dependent on the business deprecation tax deduction, and current utility TOU pricing. The leasing programs enable consumers to make lease payments on a system that the solar installing companies are able to depreciate on their taxes. TOU pricing enables sell to the utility at a high price.

I don't know where you get the idea that SCTY will have "little overhead." They'll have large numbers of panels installed all over the country that need maintenance.

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I don't like any of them at those premiums.

Yeah, I guess it depends on where you see SCTY's stock going after earnings (or more precisely, lack thereof) are announced early next week.

 

[ggies07]

An electric utility company is more than just power generation. SCTY is heavily dependent on electric utilities, which are regional entities at their largest, for their transmission and distribution capabilities.

The economics for SCTY today are heavily dependent on the business deprecation tax deduction, and current utility TOU pricing. The leasing programs enable consumers to make lease payments on a system that the solar installing companies are able to depreciate on their taxes. TOU pricing enables sell to the utility at a high price.

I don't know where you get the idea that SCTY will have "little overhead." They'll have large numbers of panels installed all over the country that need maintenance.

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Yeah, I guess it depends on where you see SCTY's stock going after earnings (or more precisely, lack thereof) are announced early next week.

You might not be able to see what makes Solar City great, but Elon does, and you believe in him......Elon could have stayed out of the limelight and just been on the board and put his two cents in when necessary. But if you've heard him talk (and we all have) about solar energy, you know he thinks it's a great opportunity and thinks Solar City can do it best. So maybe stop worry about it.

 

[ShortSlaver]

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Yeah, I guess it depends on where you see SCTY's stock going after earnings (or more precisely, lack thereof) are announced early next week.

That's the thing - I have absolutely no idea. I didn't plan on it moving so much with TSLA just recently and am quit happy it has.

I feel their an awesome company and have a great future - but I don't nay-say those who say too much too fast here. Lets not forget it was just downgraded quite a bit and had massive drops like this week I think. There's a lot of emotion and positive Musk sentiment in this stock right now and I just don't know how it's going to pan out right now. It could go either way I feel.

I've taken some profits on this one now - I got in pretty cheap not so long ago so it's prudent to get out. Sold my options as well. I don't like the premiums now to be a buyer.

 

[smorgasbord]

... Elon does, and you believe in him...... So maybe stop worry about it.

In my view, there are many who are doing just that.

 

[jeff_adams]

In my view, there are many who are doing just that.

Elon is certainly pro green energy. Think about the various opportunities Elon could present to a solar power company. Large amounts of electric cars on the road in the future. Possible Hyper-loop connection? Mars electricity? Solar City could get almost all the power business from his companies.

 

[Johan]

Look at her go! Up >7% to $31 in the pre-market. Is SCTY just mirroring TSLA at the moment???

 

[Citizen-T]

Look at her go! Up >7% to $31 in the pre-market. Is SCTY just mirroring TSLA at the moment???

My guess is, "yes".

 

[ShortSlaver]

This just feels like irrational exuberance to me right now.

 

[kcveins]

This just feels like irrational exuberance to me right now.

I think so too, but I think it will last for another 1-2 weeks (until after the 5th announcement) before dropping to a steadier state.

 

[ShortSlaver]

I think so too, but I think it will last for another 1-2 weeks (until after the 5th announcement) before dropping to a steadier state.

I sold all my SCTY but I'm not betting against it. Had my finger on the trigger to get some May 30 Puts but I decided to not go through with it. Going to enjoy my profits, not be greedy and let things simmer.

 

[Royal TS(LA)]

My guess is that some people will get cold feet a couple days before the 5th announcement, resulting in a distinct drop.

 

[aznt1217]

I sold all my SCTY but I'm not betting against it. Had my finger on the trigger to get some May 30 Puts but I decided to not go through with it. Going to enjoy my profits, not be greedy and let things simmer.

I just did the same. I'm going to take lunch to think about an earnings play.