Alternative Energy Investor Discussions

[c041v]

^^ and this is exactly why massive short squeezes are net negative on the value of a company imo (not short but massive squeezes); They force good long term investors out as the dangers of reverse are just too much risk- they put multiple years of profit on the table today, only to pull it off again. As such, they give the company and the stock a speculative reputation that can be difficult to correct.

This has been very frustrating for me. I really like SCTY and at some point, I will hold a long position, but not right now. I've bought on dips and sold at the peak, mostly because I cannot believe SCTY's product the way I can with Tesla. Elon may have a vision for the company, but I cannot clearly see it at this time. He only spends 1 day a month at SolarCity and my personal belief (Wrong as it may be) is that much of SCTY's recent gain is due to the Musk touch, and not the fundamentals. This is not to say there isn't something substantial buried under the hype, but as you said - leaving years of profit on the table only to take it away is too tempting for most to ride out. I make my moves without emotion. If it reaches the profit I hoped to achieve, I cash in. As Curt has suggested, I've got stops a few ticks above ACB for my true long positions.

SCTY will pay for my property taxes right now, whereas TSLA will pay for my house someday.

 

[ShortSlaver]

This is not to say there isn't something substantial buried under the hype, but as you said - leaving years of profit on the table only to take it away is too tempting for most to ride out. I'm make my moves without emotion. If it reaches the profit I hoped to achieve, I cash in. As Curt has suggested, I've got stops a few ticks above ACB for my true long positions.

SCTY will pay for my property taxes right now, whereas TSLA will pay for my house someday.

This is how I feel. I made in a couple months what I thought would take a couple years to make so I'm out. If it dips and I can get back in, fine. If it doesn't, fine. I made my choice and I'm happy with it. I've left thousands on the table so far but it hasn't been worth risking thousands the other way in the short term here.

 

[smorgasbord]

Look for SolarCity to become the Home Depot or Walmart of the solar electricity distribution industry.

Excuse the nit, but it has a purpose - don't you mean "solar electricity generation industry?"

The difference may be critical. Utilities own the distribution lines, SCTY only owns generation sites. That means SCTY is dependent on utility pricing for selling power, but they can only sell power when it's being generated, which means they can't help utilities out much with business morning power needs. Another potential issues, which I have not researched, is what will SCTY's costs be when the panels they install today are 10 or 15 years old? We know generation efficiencies decline, but by how much? What is the failure rate of panels and inverters in the field over 10-15 years, and what will those maintenance costs do to the bottom line? Of course, if you believe electricity pricing will greatly increase, then that may mask the problems well enough.

 

[Ocelot]

i sold half my position today. with tesla, you could see why the price was shooting up. with solarcity, i have no idea. it could be hype, but i also have a nagging feeling, the people buying at 23% increase know something i do not.

 

[kenliles]

Excuse the nit, but it has a purpose - don't you mean "solar electricity generation industry?"

The difference may be critical. Utilities own the distribution lines, SCTY only owns generation sites. That means SCTY is dependent on utility pricing for selling power, but they can only sell power when it's being generated, which means they can't help utilities out much with business morning power needs. Another potential issues, which I have not researched, is what will SCTY's costs be when the panels they install today are 10 or 15 years old? We know generation efficiencies decline, but by how much? What is the failure rate of panels and inverters in the field over 10-15 years, and what will those maintenance costs do to the bottom line? Of course, if you believe electricity pricing will greatly increase, then that may mask the problems well enough.

good points to consider;
Solar City is selling power generally at peak usage (daytime- commercial). True they only own generation sites- that's the lowest cost per income position assuming those generation sites have low failure and maintenance (per your second point). The leverage is that they don't own the costly distribution lines, nor the requirement to generate power to accomplish peak load, nor the requirement to generate power when loads don't warrant the inefficiencies consumed by the distribution network (nighttime low usage).

 

[kenliles]

not bad- $.41 loss; moving up profitability to Q2; expect Q2 GAAP margin 40-55% ; deploy 48-53MW Q2;
decent report - excellent forward guidance = less pullback that i expected- running $33-$34ish in AH (lot of bounce though as usual)

 

[aznt1217]

lost my bet on this one.

 

[kenliles]

lost my bet on this one.

how did you end up playing it?

 

[aznt1217]

how did you end up playing it?

Went straight long @ 35.80. Was going to play options but my account wasn't ready yet. I was so stupid because this AM I sold my position which was 25.91 @ 31.80-- REALLY dumb on my part.

 

[kenliles]

Went straight long @ 35.80. Was going to play options but my account wasn't ready yet. I was so stupid because this AM I sold my position which was 25.91 @ 31.80-- REALLY dumb on my part.

gotcha- yeah that's frustrating (I would never call virtually any move in the market stupid- if I did, I be the dumbest man on the planet); Fortunately at least according to AH the drop is small (if at all by the time we open tomorrow), cause the forward look on the report is excellent, and we still have Elons announcement. It could have really come back in all the way into mid 20s from this report. From here, looks like you weren't hurt bad at all. (printing $34.50 right now)

 

[aznt1217]

gotcha- yeah that's frustrating (I would never call virtually any move in the market stupid- if I did, I be the dumbest man on the planet); Fortunately at least according to AH the drop is small (if at all by the time we open tomorrow), cause the forward look on the report is excellent, and we still have Elons announcement. It could have really come back in all the way into mid 20s from this report. From here, looks like you weren't hurt bad at all. (printing $34.50 right now)

Yes, I definitely agree with that, but we'll see what the overall market says tomorrow. I think what it'll come down to is the conference call going on right now. Truthfully I wouldn't mind holding Solarcity for a year along with Tesla, I'm really banking on the Supercharger announcement having a tie in with Solarcity, but we'll see.

 

[ShortSlaver]

Went straight long @ 35.80. Was going to play options but my account wasn't ready yet. I was so stupid because this AM I sold my position which was 25.91 @ 31.80-- REALLY dumb on my part.

Not really. You gambled that the price would lower and it didn't so now you have a couple options:

Move on and find another stock or keep the profits in cash. Or, wait it out and assume the stock will eventually come back to a price lower than you sold and then rebuy. Or, say the hell with it, I'm rebuying now and going to give up the gap I lost. The first 2 are risky in that the price may never come back down and you will be left out in the dark. The third option could wipe out your profits by coming back down.

SCTY has so much emotion behind it right now (as does TSLA). The market has found its new messiah and is piling into TSLA and SCTY. Just a week ago SCTY was downgraded and lost 10% in a day, falling back to $23 or so. Since TSLA boomed SCTY went with it.

Is the market being irrationally exuberant? Or is it just now seeing the light - seeing what we all believed in just a few weeks/months ago?

 

[aznt1217]

Not really. You gambled that the price would lower and it didn't so now you have a couple options:

Move on and find another stock or keep the profits in cash. Or, wait it out and assume the stock will eventually come back to a price lower than you sold and then rebuy. Or, say the hell with it, I'm rebuying now and going to give up the gap I lost. The first 2 are risky in that the price may never come back down and you will be left out in the dark. The third option could wipe out your profits by coming back down.

SCTY has so much emotion behind it right now (as does TSLA). The market has found its new messiah and is piling into TSLA and SCTY. Just a week ago SCTY was downgraded and lost 10% in a day, falling back to $23 or so. Since TSLA boomed SCTY went with it.

Is the market being irrationally exuberant? Or is it just now seeing the light - seeing what we all believed in just a few weeks/months ago?

Gut instinct was actually for the stock to drop. Then I suddenly changed sentiments and wanted to do an earnings play so I got back in. Guess the street doesn't agree with me haha. So... about that Supercharger Announcement.

 

[ShortSlaver]

Gut instinct was actually for the stock to drop. Then I suddenly changed sentiments and wanted to do an earnings play so I got back in. Guess the street doesn't agree with me haha. So... about that Supercharger Announcement.

Honestly, the best thing to do is buy the stock, lock it in a box and just walk away and come back a couple years later. Invest in good companies with the ability to change things in a massive way and just let them work for you. The problem is as soon as you build up a substantial ball of wax with one and it's going parabolic, you get the feeling that it's time to get out - too much too fast. And then it turns out it's just people realizing you were right.

I sold off all my SCTY at around $30.00 and I think it's on it's way back after a so-so earnings report so I'm not feeling left out. But, who knows. Elon might have a killer announcement regarding it soon.

 

[c041v]

Just a week ago SCTY was downgraded and lost 10% in a day, falling back to $23 or so.

I re-entered towards the end of that day. I will make the same move if it falls to <$30 in the coming days. I honestly have no idea how to play SCTY. I would be willing to hold a small position based on the impending Supercharger announcement, but as soon as the gains get out of control, I bail. My success has been two well timed rolls of the dice.

 

[ShortSlaver]

I re-entered towards the end of that day. I will make the same move if it falls to <$30 in the coming days. I honestly have no idea how to play SCTY. I would be willing to hold a small position based on the impending Supercharger announcement, but as soon as the gains get out of control, I bail. My success has been two well timed rolls of the dice.

Same here, really. Bought in at $16 and $18 and then fortified at $23 and bought May $30 Calls. Sold everything Friday when we breached $30 and haven't looked back. I initially bought SCTY as a longterm play. Then again, same as TSLA. I didn't expect either to just explode like they did so I took profits on almost everything Friday. I'll get back in when it gets back to a fair play or stabilizes nicely.

Their last earnings call they got knocked down a bunch and I expect the same here. That tends to be a good time to buy these guys.

 

[touda78]

just invested 200 shares @ 35.6 after exiting TSLA @ 74.8, i feel down tonight, should i worry about a crash this week ?

 

[twinklejet]

The Street before market close & earnings call.

 

[Buran]

Hi all,


What is the best place to follow investment discussions of SCTY? I have been reading TMC for about a year since I started following Tesla more closely. I am long in both (TSLA since about 8 months and SCTY since IPO), but have not found the equivalent of TMC for SCTY, if there is such a discussion board that is.


Cheers,
/Buran

 

[aznt1217]

All out. In the long run I think Solarcity will be excellent, but I'm staying liquid for now because my cost basis was too high for my comfort. I see an entry point at $30 for a ramp up to the next earnings report, a lot of this price movement is based on future cash flows that the overall market hasn't realized yet (only a select few). Perception is everything.