Me too- that seems like it would be a strong market- I'll bet it's just early in the game and once the competitive rent pricing of those that do this starts to catch- they'll all follow like sheep-on-a-hot-tin-roof
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Alternative Energy Investor Discussions
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Me too- that seems like it would be a strong market- I'll bet it's just early in the game and once the competitive rent pricing of those that do this starts to catch- they'll all follow like sheep-on-a-hot-tin-roof
I think it's easier when a business owns the building and operates a business out of it. For example, Walmart owns their buildings and runs a store out of it. So they're interested in reducing their electricity costs. Thus, it makes sense to go solar as long as they can get financing on it.
For typical office building owners, they're leasing out the building and don't really care about lowering electricity rates for the tenant. The tenant cares about lower electricity rates but isn't typically willing to sign a long-term solar lease (that's something the owner of the building should do).
Add to this that there's a huge overdemand of solar right now. The big bottleneck is the lack of financing available and the capacity of the installers.
Solarcity leads the field with residential and small business installs because they do two things right:
1. The provide lease financing. You don't need to find it yourself (ie., some other solar companies you need to arrange financing yourself via a 3rd party or partner). With Solarcity, they'll do the leasing directly.
2. The provide a turnkey service with everything done by them. Other companies will outsource various parts of the process (ie., install, maintain, lease, etc). But Solarcity integrates the whole process and takes responsibility of everything. Its their installers that install the panels. Its their people that maintain. You lease directly from them. It's the simplest and most convenient (compared with their competitors).
On a side note, in the last earnings conference call (Q1 2013), Lyndon Rive mentioned in an answer that they have enough demand from one state (presumably California) to meet all their growth targets for the next 10 years. He's claiming there is no demand problem. They're overflooded with demand. They need to scale to meet the demand (ie., installers, processes, etc) and most importantly they need to get financing lined up to provide leases. That's why the $500m deal with Goldman is so significant. Goldman signaled that they're going to spend billions over the next decade financing solar like this. It de-risks Solarcity even more.
I bought my shares in January and plan to hold for a very, very long time. I see SCTY as a $50-200 billion company in 15-25 years.
On a side note, when I first invested in January I only vaguely understood the long-term potential of Solarcity. But now I'm starting to see it more clearly. The big factor is that Solarcity will be scrambling to try to meet demand for the next 20 years because demand will likely always be greater than what they can fulfill (SolarCity's CEO Discusses Q1 2013 Results - Earnings Call Transcript - Seeking Alpha). I see Solarcity's competitive advantage as being the most convenient solar provider because they offer a completely seamless and integrated experience (install, maintain, lease, etc). Over time they will use this integrated approach to drive down costs more (similar to Elon's other ventures of Tesla and SpaceX). This will keep them as the dominant residential and small business solar provider for many years to come.
For long-term investors, I say any big dips are buying opportunities.
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I work in Raritan Center in Edison, NJ. It used to be swamp land that this company bought up and turned into this massive complex of warehouses and office.s Fedex and UPS both have massive hubs here as well as a ton of other massive companies. Just recently they added solar to every single roof. I assume my landlord must be seeing nice savings.
Right - SCTY should get more bang for their installer time by doing bigger installs on office park roofs. Since permits and wiring are needed on a per site basis, i would think you would want to put up as much surface area per install as you can. Also i would think that the office park owners are probably more financially savvy and should be doing this if it is their best interest.
I ask b/c we are buying a new place and I'm trying to figure out to go solar now, or wait a few years (given the increases in panel efficiency). Also buy vs. lease. I could construct a rather complicate spreadsheet to model out a few scenarios, but I'd rather think this through first. I have a few friends in commercial real estate so I'll ask them this weekend and get back with my findings.
Today the Associated Press reported on a Friday statement issued by the Chinese State Council.
BEIJING (AP) -- China's Cabinet has announced measures to curb the country's notorious air pollution…China's new measures are intended to adjust the country's energy structure, increase supplies of cleaner-burning fuels such as natural gas and methane, raise the quality of car fuel and phase out older, more polluting, cars…The Cabinet also expressed support for the country's solar industry during its "production and operating difficulties."
Full AP article: http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories...MPLATE=DEFAULT
BEIJING (AP) -- China's Cabinet has announced measures to curb the country's notorious air pollution…China's new measures are intended to adjust the country's energy structure, increase supplies of cleaner-burning fuels such as natural gas and methane, raise the quality of car fuel and phase out older, more polluting, cars…The Cabinet also expressed support for the country's solar industry during its "production and operating difficulties."
Full AP article: http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories...MPLATE=DEFAULT
Norse
Active Member
Almost dumped about 20 June 22nd options this morning when it was above 104... would like to sell them and get some sept calls or maybe further out .... but I think I am going to hold out and see what tomorrow brings... The Theta is killing me on these .... or at least it will if the stock does not continue to go up daily ... the longest I plan on holding is until Wednesday ... I cant stomach holding through the announcement with so little time left on them.
They are strike price 105 contracts i bought when the stock was around 108 so just looking to limit losses on them
edit:meant to post this in the Short Term TSLA Price movements thread ... mods please move if possible
They are strike price 105 contracts i bought when the stock was around 108 so just looking to limit losses on them
edit:meant to post this in the Short Term TSLA Price movements thread ... mods please move if possible
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Ok, I got a chance to briefly talk with my commercial real estate investor friend about this. unfortunately i didn't realize i was meeting him mid-day on Saturday during a party so quality time this was not.
basically he was interested, but all his deals work in 5-7 year time horizons. this has to do with the fact that many/ most commercial loans are floating and typically refinanced / rolled over. payback periods of 10+ years are hard (but not impossible) to figure into the worldview of his limited partners (aka the big money).
oddly enough, i also came across a report that showed that NJ has the second highest (after CA) commercial solar install base.
still more work to do on this
basically he was interested, but all his deals work in 5-7 year time horizons. this has to do with the fact that many/ most commercial loans are floating and typically refinanced / rolled over. payback periods of 10+ years are hard (but not impossible) to figure into the worldview of his limited partners (aka the big money).
oddly enough, i also came across a report that showed that NJ has the second highest (after CA) commercial solar install base.
still more work to do on this
Gtoffo
Member
Here we are back at 35$. We saw some good climbs in the last week but nothing major.
Is 35$ the new floor? Any predictions for Q2?
Is 35$ the new floor? Any predictions for Q2?
outside of macro market moves that effect all equities - that's the way I see it. It behaved weakly for a while (likely sellers from the lockdown release)- but seemed to hold well from $34 or so. A note of caution though- it may be holding up as a follower of TSLA which has shown amazing strength in this down market. If for some reason TSLA moves down SCTY may follow- I can't tell if it's holding on it's own or not frankly
Cramer just said to sell, sell, sell Sunpower. I don't see a world where Solarcity can succeed and Sunpower fail. IMO, both companies are poised for great success.
His street.com (or whatever it is called) had Sunpower rated a "sell" forever. It just upgraded to "hold" last month after the stock has gone up 400%. After their ratings upgrade the stock has gone down about 10-20%.
Don't listen to Cramer on stock picks, he doesn't have enough time to research all these companies he talks about. Sunpower is still my favorite, especially at these prices.
His street.com (or whatever it is called) had Sunpower rated a "sell" forever. It just upgraded to "hold" last month after the stock has gone up 400%. After their ratings upgrade the stock has gone down about 10-20%.
Don't listen to Cramer on stock picks, he doesn't have enough time to research all these companies he talks about. Sunpower is still my favorite, especially at these prices.
Try harder.
Sunpower could have bad management. They could have inexpensive processes. Any number of things could make them a bad provider or bad company.
SolarCity isn't tied to any individual manufacturer. At least that's my understanding.
CyberDutchie
Active Member
I know quite a few on this forum hold SCTY as well, but there doesn't seem to be the same depth and discussion on what is driving the short and long term for this stock as with TSLA (understandably so of course since this is TMC).
What other sources of information do you fellow SCTY investors regularly use to keep up to date on this stock?
What other sources of information do you fellow SCTY investors regularly use to keep up to date on this stock?
Gtoffo
Member
+1
I've been trying to keep the discussion moving but apparently there isn't much interest... I am also looking for some other sources of info for SCTY.
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Could be a really good catalyst... today might be a good buying opportunity to make that play....
DSJ
Member
+1 to this as well.
I'm glued to it, but there's not much discussion... relatively speaking, that is.
I'm using Google news and the SCTY tag to get info whenever I can. What about you guys?
I'm glued to it, but there's not much discussion... relatively speaking, that is.
I'm using Google news and the SCTY tag to get info whenever I can. What about you guys?
It certainly could. The President says he will speak about executive actions to implement "a national plan to reduce carbon pollution, prepare our country for the impacts of climate change, and lead global efforts to fight it."
I first purchased SCTY in March. I then sold on May 30 in anticipation of the June 11 lock-up expiration. I bought back in today.
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Norse
Active Member
well, I cant see there can be bad News for Solarcity or Tesla. But I can really see him come With good News.
Indeed, and the news today about Tesla Motors Supercharger stations at CBL malls should benefit both companies, since SolarCity builds them: Tesla Supercharging Stations at CBL Malls | Business Wire
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