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An Idea for fixed battery replacement cost - Tesla please read this

Discussion in 'Model 3' started by Jayc, May 26, 2016.

  1. Jayc

    Jayc Member

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    Tesla has tackled most of the concerns people have with EVs but battery lifetime is still a concern for most.

    Therefore, wouldn't it be great if Tesla can give a guaranteed future replacement cost for the battery after of (say) 5 years of warranty - irrespective of condition of battery.

    What this will do is immediately increase resale prices of all Teslas and that in turn will tempt new buyers. I am sure Tesla can quite accurately work out what a battery would cost in 5 years time so for example, at the time when Model 3 becomes available, if Tesla can give a guarantee that at the end of its battery warranty, we have the option of replacing it with a new one for say $5000 (Model 3 base pack price in 2024) and that will come with another 8 year warranty, then EVs are really going to take off. We will also see used Teslas with battery replaced coming with a warranty. Of course the remainder of the car might be out of warranty but that again is a huge opportunity Tesla have against ICE competition that not a lot can go wrong, so coming up with a clever maintenance plan with a guarantee can make a big impact. But they will have to get the basics right in the first place i.e. reliability and build quality will have to be up there with the best.

    I reality, I can appreciate the costing side of things might not be quite so straight forward but I can guarantee this will convince a lot of the remaining EV skeptics that a Tesla EV is indeed a very good choice whether buying new or used - this will be vital if Tesla wants to be in the list of top sellers overall, not just EV.
     
  2. Dan Detweiler

    Dan Detweiler Member

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    Already comes with an 8 year warantee. Not sure they could do much more.

    Dan
     
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  3. ksfrogman

    ksfrogman Member

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    What is the battery replacement cost?
     
  4. deonb

    deonb Active Member

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  5. Dan Detweiler

    Dan Detweiler Member

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    No idea what a battery replacement would run...no doubt quite a bit. However, what are the chances you would need to replace the battery? It already will be replaced for you under warrantee for the first 8 years if something should go wrong. After that I am pretty sure I will be looking at the next great thing Tesla has come out with!

    Dan
     
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  6. GSP

    GSP Member

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    Hard to say what the battery replacement cost will be after the 8 year, infinite mile warranty expires. I expect Tesla will charge about $10,000-15,000 if your battery is damaged in a repairable accident in 2018. When out of warranty in 2024, it may cost about half as much, or $5,000-7,500. Nissan charges $5,500 today to replace a 24 kWh Leaf battery with a new one.

    Replacing failed components inside the battery, like contactors or pre-charge resistor for example, will be much more cost effective. If range is low it probably will be a better option to just continue driving it as is, and use a different car for long trips.

    GSP
     
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  7. ksfrogman

    ksfrogman Member

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    I usually keep my vehicles for a minimum of 10 years. I still drive a 2006 330i I bought brand new. It is conceivable that the battery would not go bad within the 8 years, but shortly thereafter. The I would be stuck with a vehicle with a total value less than that of the battery, which presumably would cost more than an internal combustion engine. I have always purchased, and never leased a vehicle, but this dilemma may change things.
     
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  8. ksfrogman

    ksfrogman Member

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    One last question: Are batteries mechanically difficult to replace, i.e., do they require the entire car to be removed from its chassis?
     
  9. deonb

    deonb Active Member

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    See:
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  10. SΞXY P100D

    SΞXY P100D Member

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    #10 SΞXY P100D, May 26, 2016
    Last edited: May 26, 2016
    I presume that our society will be treating cars more and more like smartphones. (Heck, why wouldn't Apple be interested in making cars!) Indeed, cars are more expensive but there's much discussion about formulating new business models which make car ownership a lot cheaper or even non-existent. That being said, since technology becomes outdated every year, I would rather get a new phone - or EV - rather than replace the battery. Take the rapid advancement of Mobileye autopilot sensors as a prime example.
     
  11. Chuq

    Chuq Member

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    I think it would be a great idea for Tesla to continue to make batteries of the same form factor and allow owners to purchase a new battery and have it installed in their (for example) 15 year old car. Imagine what sort of capacity would be standard in 15 years - 200 kWh would not be out of the question!

    But to commit to a particular capacity or price now would be difficult.

    I really hope that Nissan does this. They have a large customer base out there, of people who took the gamble of paying a reasonably high amount for a car with only 130 km of range. Imagine if all those owners were able to choose to get the new 30 kWh battery (or higher future capacity) battery installed later on!
     
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  12. ksfrogman

    ksfrogman Member

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    That's pretty neat. Makes me wonder how that works out in terms of pricing.
     
  13. Jayc

    Jayc Member

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    Actually this is exactly my point. There will be people (for whatever reason) who will want to keep their car for 10 years or more. Then there is the whole used car market where people get 4 or 5 year old used cars and keep it for another 5 or 6 years. Tesla will have to have an answer for these use-cases in order to go mainstream.

    It is fine for a Tesla S owner to say I will get a 100k car brand new and will replace it with another new one regardless of residual value and before warranty expires but the mainstream car market / demographic that Model 3 targets will want to consider several other factors including residual value.
     
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  14. AZ Desert Driver

    AZ Desert Driver Genesis - The Beginning - MS60D in its nest

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    You nailed it...A used car with worn out tires and faded paint can still be valuable to to buyer - he just adds the cost of "upgrade" into the purchase transaction and arrives at a "residual value". The unknown cost of battery life and replacement cost puts a wild card into the residual value calculation. I'd like to think that 50% of MSRP would be a fair target at 8 years....this would let me calculate ownership cost for the new car. Will Tesla hold value? (hope so - being featured as the best car ever). Will the new Mobileye features kill residual value?
    Who will dictate these wild cards? KellyblueBook or Tesla?
     
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  15. ksfrogman

    ksfrogman Member

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    Yes, for us car hoarders, those unknown costs would be nice to know. I will also get a Lexus NX for the wife, and must also decide between hybrid vs non-hybrid for similar reasons. Batteries do go bad after a certain number of charging cycles. They also get cheaper over time.
     
  16. ItsNotAboutTheMoney

    ItsNotAboutTheMoney Active Member

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    Not a chance.

    Tesla's trying hard to bring battery cost down significantly. If they gave a battery price now it'd just be off-putting.
     
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  17. diamond.g

    diamond.g Member

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    Has there been widespread reports of the Model S losing a large part of it's capacity in the 4 years it has been out?
     
  18. Dan Detweiler

    Dan Detweiler Member

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    Gotta completely disagree on this one. Tesla already has more than enough business to keep it going. The used car market is not their concern. If there is or is not a market for 6 year old Teslas is not their business, it is selling new Teslas. Also, remember that these battery packs are something like 95% recyclable. The actual batteries can be used in home storage units once their life is done in a car. There are already plans in place for Tesla to make good use of these batteries long term.

    Can't quote the source but I am pretty sure I saw where a Tesla battery still holds something like 70% of its use after over 100000 miles in the car. I'll see if I can find the link to where I saw it.

    Dan
     
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  19. Dan Detweiler

    Dan Detweiler Member

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    Check out this link. Great informative video about battery degredation. About the 12 minute mark he talks about long term life. By the way I was wrong. It's about 10 years and still has about 72% of its available charge.



    Dan
     
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  20. Luke42

    Luke42 Member

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    That's too simplistic.

    Tesla leases cars, and the residual value of the car is one of the biggest factors in that business.

    Also, used car values affect how much someone is willing to pay for a new car, both for businesses and for individuals who do their homework.

    (While Tesla doesn't haggle with consumers on price, but they're not exempt from market forces: customers may take it, or leave it, depending on whether they think the car is a good deal.)
     
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