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Analysis of the price-hike for FSD, and the options it allows Tesla

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Most should have seen that Tesla is bumping the FSD pre-order price to $15K. This is odd with a product which isn't there yet, and has a resale price of around $3K to $4K in the used market, with a declining global take rate now at 7%.

I explore these price factors, and also consider the option the high prices offer to Tesla -- that even if they fail to make FSD work (as many fear) this is so much money that with their stock wealth they could buy a company that does make it work (almost any company except Apple and Alphabet) and install LIDARs (while biting their teeth) and other sensors in existing cars and still make a profit. Giving them a win either way. Could the price increase suggest they want to be ready for that?

You can read this in my Forbes site column today at Tesla Raises ‘FSD’ Price To $15K. Does It Signal They Are Giving Up?
Interesting perspective, this line of thinking did not occur to me
 
Haha, no. That was highway robbery. I'm so happy not to be buying gasoline anymore and farming my own electrons. Driving on sunshine brings a huge smile to my face!
True for us. However I worry about those third world countries where their electricity is produced from burning coal or fossil fuels. As they transition to electric cars their electrical systems will pollute even more. As air pollution drifts that won’t be good for anybody.
 
Come back in a few months and tell us when Tesla removes it with an OTA update. This has happened to a few.

I think you guys might be mixing up 2 different things?

The guy you're replying to seems to be talking about buying from tesla (he mentioned checking Teslas used inventory at least that's how it read?)

In which case if they sold it to him with FSD, it'll keep FSD.


The only folks who've "lost" it were folks who bought from someone who bought a Tesla at an auction that Tesla HAD owned (and set on their back end systems to remove FSD from before it went to auction).

The problem was the SW on the car didn't find out about it until AFTER the auction.

That's bad IT on Teslas part, and easily fixed, but they seem in no hurry to fix it- it's also why I don't recommend anybody buy a used Tesla from anyone but Tesla directly if there's any chance it has passed back through Teslas hands after original sale but prior to final sale to you.
 
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I think you guys might be mixing up 2 different things?

The guy you're replying to seems to be talking about buying from tesla

In which case if they sold it to him with FSD, it'll keep FSD.


The only folks who've "lost" it were folks who bought from someone who bought a Tesla at an auction that Tesla HAD owned (and set on their back end systems to remove FSD from before it went to auction).

The problem was the SW on the car didn't find out about it until AFTER the auction.

That's bad IT in Teslas part, and easily fixed, but also why I don't recommend anybody buy a used Tesla from anyone but Tesla directly if there's any chance it has passed back through Teslas hands after original sale but prior to final sale to you.
My mistake. If Tesla sold it to him and he has the paperwork saying FSD he should be ok.
 
True for us. However I worry about those third world countries where their electricity is produced from burning coal or fossil fuels. As they transition to electric cars their electrical systems will pollute even more. As air pollution drifts that won’t be good for anybody.
We're definitely in this all together. Fortunately, the cost of renewal energy and grid storage continue to fall making it more affordable. I believe each country needs to implement clean energy for itself and also help others to achieve that. If nothing else, it's in our own best interest. Plus, green energy = jobs = economic growth. 🤑
 
we also have sani
In general for marketing psychology: Higher product prices can have the effect of imbuing greater quality / value / exclusivity in the prospective buyer's mind -- even if there's actually not much setting one product apart from others.
Yep. Ex: Persons who spend many hundreds (if not thousands) for some designer sunglasses...when those sunglasses are made in the exact same Luxotta factory as $19 sunglasses sold at CVS.
 
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A demo of Mercedes Benz Drive Pilot being sold in Germany:


It's smoother than Tesla because you can override the steering smoothly. It automatically returns to its automatic steering once you are done with your overriding action.

Also, I like the automatic horn feature when the car in front tries to back up!

FSD beta is still L2 (if there's an accident, it's on the driver, not Tesla.)

The advantage for Drive Pilot is: If there's an accident during the operation of L3 on highways, Mercedes will take responsibility (at least currently in the EU because of the law. It's unknown whether it still honors that once it sells in the US despite the lack of such law.)

If the car is not in the L3 operation (because it will hand off to the driver once the speed exceeds 37 MPH on highways) but only in the L2, then the driver is still on the hook when there's an accident during the operation of L2.

Its L3 is hands-free. Its L2 is like Tesla: Not hands-free, and you got nagged. It does have a driver monitoring camera that sees through dark glasses.

Remember, in an accident because the driver is distracted and reading a magazine while the car is in L3, Mercedes will be responsible for it because that's what the definition of Autonomous means.

It will be interesting to see whether the consumers see enough advantages to buying L3 Drive Pilot instead of Tesla FSD.
 
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A demo of Mercedes Benz Drive Pilot being sold in Germany:


FSD beta is still L2 (if there's an accident, it's on the driver, not Tesla.)

The advantage for Drive Pilot is: If there's an accident during the operation of L3 on highways, Mercedes will take responsibility (at least currently in the EU because of the law. It's unknown whether it still honors that once it sells in the US despite the lack of such law.)

If the car is not in the L3 operation (because it will hand off to the driver once the speed exceeds 37 MPH on highways) but only in the L2, then the driver is still on the hook when there's an accident during the operation of L2.

Its L3 is hands-free. Its L2 is like Tesla: Not hands-free, and you got nagged.

Remember, in an accident because the driver is distracted and reading a magazine while the car is in L3, Mercedes will be responsible for it because that's what the definition of Autonomous means.

It will be interesting to see whether the consumers see enough advantages to buying L3 Drive Pilot instead of Tesla FSD.
Yup. I think most LIDAR fans, such as myself, would say that it's far more likely you could make a full traffic jam self-drive system with just vision, while we doubt it's easy to do one for full speed or for city streets.

On the highway, at 25mph, in a jam of cars, you have a lot more reaction time if things don't go as predicted. You are just playing follow the leader and avoid any incursions from the side. (You do have to understand if the leader you are following does something unusual.) On a freeway there are no peds or cyclists allowed, though you want to be ready for rare peds.

The distances are short enough that stereo can do the job (though Tesla does not have stereo.)

In general, Tesla could probably make a product in this area. They have probably discussed it and decided against it.
 
...On the highway, at 25mph, in a jam of cars, you have a lot more reaction time if things don't go as predicted. You are just playing follow the leader and avoid any incursions from the side. (You do have to understand if the leader you are following does something unusual.) On a freeway there are no peds or cyclists allowed, though you want to be ready for rare peds..

Many Tesla owners were frustrated when they found out that Tesla would not cover for any accidents at all while using its technology.

It's fine if Tesla can do an L3 at 37 MPH, but will it be confident enough that its technology is reliable enough to cover any accidents that its technology could not avoid?

At a very slow speed of summon and smart summon, Tesla still does not cover any accidents!

There's an interesting theory about the recent 2 motorcycle crashes in July: It's not about L3 but about why LIDAR is needed:

 
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Many Tesla owners were frustrated when they found out that Tesla would not cover for any accidents at all while using its technology.

It's fine if Tesla can do an L3 at 37 MPH, but will it be confident enough that its technology is reliable enough to cover any accidents that its technology could not avoid?

There's an interesting theory about the recent 2 motorcycle crashes in July: It's not about L3 but about why LIDAR is needed:

You mean radar, but LIDAR is good and FMCW LIDAR even better.

In a quick-thinking situation, radar, LIDAR and FMCW LIDAR will all spot a surprise object faster and figure out how it is moving faster than any vision approach. Well, the LIDAR alone needs a few frames to get speed so it may be slowest without radar to help.

Point is, in some situations, 200ms earlier knowledge can make the difference.
Which is why teams except Tesla have radar and lidar.

Elon says that self-driving is so hard that you can't solve it without AI that is so good it can also figure out the distance to everything and the speed, just from cameras. It's possible that true, but it's a longshot bet he's taken.
 
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MEANWHILE...
Do we have a source for the incidence? The only one I found about bicycle collision was from 2017 when the GM Bolt applied brakes for the bicycle in front, and the bicycle in the rear hit it.


Regardless, having suitable hardware is the first step. However, the hardware is useless if the software doesn't utilize its capability.
 
Do we have a source for the incidence? The only one I found about bicycle collision was from 2017 when the GM Bolt applied brakes for the bicycle in front, and the bicycle in the rear hit it.
This incident just happened. Seems unlikely that media will pick it up unless cyclist comes forward with a claim. We'll get Cruise's side of the story in about a month when their report will show up on the DMV's autonomous vehicle collision reports.
 
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If the take rate for FSD keeps falling look for Tesla to do one thing to keep the development money flowing. Make FSD standard equipment across all vehicles and increase the vehicle price by $10K. Those that want it would consider it a bargain and those that don’t will have no choice. You want a Tesla those are the new rules. With demand greater than supply right now I see this coming soon.
I could see this happening. And perhaps if everyone had to pay, then the extra price would not even amount to $10K.

That said, I definitely would not want this to happen. I think that FSD, in its current form and in the form I anticipate that it will be for some time is worth pretty much zero, at least to me. I would not want to pay anything extra for it.