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Analyst Price Targets for $TSLA

Discussion in 'TSLA Investor Discussions' started by ggr, Jul 16, 2020.

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  1. ggr

    ggr Expert in Dunning-Kruger Effect!

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    Bank of America $800->$1750, underperform->neutral. Saw this on a clip from "Morning Joe", but haven't seen any actual announcement.
     
  2. daniel

    daniel Active Member

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    I think the idea is that the stock price is based on the expectations. When the expectations change, the stock price changes accordingly. Of course, "expectations" refers to the total community of investors and with a relatively young and growing company this has little to do with realistic appraisals of its potential. A while back Slate Money reported on a company (don't remember which, maybe Hertz?) that went bankrupt and people started trading it and bidding it way up out of all reason. The market has a tenuous connection to reality.

    I hope this is the right place for this comment:

    I stumbled on a commentator calling TSLA "The most dangerous stock of 2020." He considered the stock overpriced (as a lot of people do) and he made the assertion that the stock price is "disconnected from fundamentals." But then in discussing the electric car market he several times referred to EVs as "electronic cars," which makes me wonder if he's an idiot or just illiterate. All cars are electronic nowadays. Teslas are electric. When the host asked him whether he was taking into account how far ahead Tesla is on technology, he just said he didn't think they were. Far and away the highest sales volume, the most advanced supercharger network, the only EV maker that also makes its own batteries, and the best electric cars on the market.

    People have been shorting Tesla and rating it a Sell since it was $35 or maybe before. But $1,550 does seem to me awfully high. Which is why over the past few weeks I've sold about 1/5 of my holding, for about 30 times what I paid per share.

    The analyst price targets are interesting, but I'm wondering whether those reflect the opinions of actual investors, which is what drives the actual price.

    Is TSLA "dangerous" at these levels?
     
  3. ggr

    ggr Expert in Dunning-Kruger Effect!

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    Wedbush $1900.
     
  4. ggr

    ggr Expert in Dunning-Kruger Effect!

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    Jeffries more than doubles price target, $1200 up to $2500.
     
  5. BigPeePee

    BigPeePee Banned

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    It's obvious these analysts are pulling random crap out of their behinds.
    No one knows how far tesla can go. I wouldn't be surprised if it 20X from here if they execute everything perfectly.
     
  6. daniel

    daniel Active Member

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    Well, considering that it's already $2,200, $2,500 doesn't seem like much of a stretch. But I'm still wondering if this is tulips all over again.

    Andrew Marvell wrote:

    And soon after, the bubble broke. Do the fundamentals of Tesla really justify $2,200? My broker doesn't think so. I have no idea what to think.
     
  7. vwman111

    vwman111 Member

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    ENOUGH with the Tulips! you sound like Gordon Johnson. If you are taking advice from your broker, then this forum isn't for you.
     
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  8. daniel

    daniel Active Member

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    Hey, this is the first time I've mentioned tulips. And I think it's a legitimate question. Plenty of people have become millionaires on paper only to lose it all when the bubble bursts. I'm the biggest Tesla fanboy you're going to find, and I only own TSLA because I bought some shares because I loved my car so much. I never expected to ever sell my shares because it was just a few shares of a company I liked. And then suddenly it's worth more than fifty times what I paid and I have to ask what the bleep is going on? It's ten times what it was a year ago but the company is not ten times as big as it was and doesn't have ten times the prospects that it did a year ago. So I have to wonder what's driving the price? Either the market has suddenly opened its eyes to what an amazing company this is, which we've all knows for nearly a decade, or else it's a bubble. And nobody ever recognizes bubbles until after they burst.

    And I have no idea who Gordon Johnson is.
     
  9. Remster32

    Remster32 Member

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    Added post-split price targets of Argus, Wedbush and Canaccord.
     
  10. ggr

    ggr Expert in Dunning-Kruger Effect!

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    I'm going to update the wiki entry to post-split price targets. In case I goof anything, and to preserve them for posterity, here is what they looked like pre-split:

    Pre-split Price Targets
    Elazar Advisors: $2,608 - up from $1,500
    Jefferies: $2500 up from $1,200
    Piper Sandler: $2,400 - up from $2,322
    Oppenheimer: $2,209 - up from $968
    Wedbush: $1900 up from $1,800 - up from $1,250
    Argus: $1888 - up from ???
    Bank of America (Merrill Lynch): $1750 up to Neutral from $800
    Baird: $1,658 - up from $984
    Canaccord: $1,623 - up from $650
    Exane BNP Paribas: $1550
    Deutsche Bank: $1,500 - up from $1,000
    New Street Research: $1,500 - up from $1,100
    Wolfe Research: $1,500 - up from $615
    Goldman Sachs: $1,475 - up from $1,300
    Credit Suisse: $1,400 - unchanged
    Morgan Stanley: $1350, sell to hold, up from $1,050 - up from $740
    CFRA: $1,220 - up from $1,100
    Cowen: $1,100 - up from $300
    Daiwa securities: $910
    Bernstein: $900 - up from $500, hold -> sell

    Royal Bank of Canada: $850 - up from $765
    UBS: $800 - unchanged
    Roth Capital: $750 - unchanged
    Evercore ISI: $625
    Citi: $450 - no change
    J.P. Morgan: $325 - up from $295
    Barclays: $300 - no change
    GLJ Research: $87

    No Price Targets:
    JMP: Neutral rating - removed price target, previously $1,500
    Needham: Sell rating - no change
     
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  11. Remster32

    Remster32 Member

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    Also updated RBC's and Morgan Stanley's price targets. RBC up from $170 to $290, MS from $270 to $272.
     
  12. ggr

    ggr Expert in Dunning-Kruger Effect!

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    Bank of America up to $550 "neutral". This is second highest street target, and a significant change from $350 "underperform".
     
  13. ggr

    ggr Expert in Dunning-Kruger Effect!

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  14. ggr

    ggr Expert in Dunning-Kruger Effect!

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  15. ggr

    ggr Expert in Dunning-Kruger Effect!

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    Piper Sandler $515.
     
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  16. Remster32

    Remster32 Member

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    Wedbush to $475 from $380. Maintain Neutral.
     
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  17. ggr

    ggr Expert in Dunning-Kruger Effect!

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    CFRA $500
     
  18. dl003

    dl003 Active Member

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    Your broker probably has a 15% annualized rate of return. When you don't know what to think, listen to the people who have made 10x the money, aka people on this board. Advice.
     
  19. daniel

    daniel Active Member

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    It's a risk:reward equation. The greater the risk the higher are both the potential gains and the potential losses. My broker's advice to me is based on her knowledge that I have a very low risk tolerance and that at my age I'm investing for present income rather than growth.

    My position in TSLA began at such a low amount that it didn't even bear thinking of as an "investment." It was just "I love this car, I'm going to buy a few shares of the stock." (I did the same with Toyota and Panasonic when I bought my Prius in 2004.) Then out of nowhere, my position in TSLA shot up until it was many times greater than I would normally hold in any one position. My broker gave me the same advice she's have given had that happened with any other stock: Take your profit and reduce your position and be happy with what you made.

    I went halfway: I sold 1/3 of my position. I still have way more than I would normally hold in one position, but I took some profit. Of course, if I was psychic I could sell every time it's at a peak and buy back every time it's at a low. But sadly, I'm not. And I'm certainly not going to take my investment advice from an open internet discussion board. :)

    I do believe in Tesla. I believe it's going to continue to succeed and grow. I just don't see the basis for the present price. It seems to me the market has priced in anticipation of the coming decade of growth. I might sell some more if it hits $500 again. Or I might not. I am not a day trader. If I were I'd have gone broke years ago because I'd be no good at it. My investments allow me to live very comfortably. I'm not going to risk that in the attempt to become super-rich.

    Most likely I'll hold my TSLA until I die and it will have done me no good at all other than making me feel like I own a piece of a company that's trying to make the world a better place. And the profit I took by selling what I did.
     
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  20. dl003

    dl003 Active Member

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    I'm not arguing with your risk tolerance. More power to you for derisking in this environment. However, what I am saying is you are placing value on your broker's advice and, according to her, TSLA at this level is too risky for you. I am simply questioning her ability to assess its value and whether she is the best fit for your financial wellness. Most aren't.
     
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