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Analyst Reports/Targets

Discussion in 'TSLA Investor Discussions' started by NigelM, Feb 25, 2013.

  1. NigelM

    NigelM Recovering Member

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    Analyst reports and targets are issued on a regular basis. This is a good place to post the latest ones you may come across, feel free to discuss. Also, please include a source link!

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    Here's one from today:
    Tesla Motors PT Raised to $35.00 at Deutsche Bank
    DB seems to be saying stand still, or maybe they have no idea where it might go? Other analysts are all over the shop with PTs ranging from $30-45:

     
  2. blakegallagher

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    I think it shows something that a firm that had the price at 28 (very low) has moved it up to close to where the stock is trading now ... did not see any reasons given though .... if you are a member of these investment firms do they issue you a more in depth report than what gets republished be the news sources?
     
  3. NigelM

    NigelM Recovering Member

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  4. kenliles

    kenliles Active Member

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  5. Clprenz

    Clprenz Member

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    Not trying to be bullish, but I think their estimated EPS id extremly stupid. I think it could be in the range of $2-$3 per share. But then Again I think I could see a EPS of .39-.67 this quarter. That is based off my surveys each person is buying about 11k in options and the production(4600) I predict is prob. 60:25%-30% 85:30-38% P85: 25%-32% , so average car price is about 82.5k for buyer and 90k for them. making a revunue of 400 million to 420 million and a gross profit of 11%-18%= EPS estimate of .39-.67. Worst case scenario I see a EPS of .20-.30 but that is still 10x the average of the whole freaking year!!!! I expect shares to jump!(Note: I did expect lower amount of deliveries based off the forum last time, so I'm not always bullish.) But based off the fact that someone got 7000+ vin now and that it takes them about 2-3 weeks to complete, I would expect vins through 8000 to be issued and vins through 7400-7600 to be delivered or close to delivery Otherwise I think that they are right on target for their estimated #. Long #TSLA
     
  6. Zzzz...

    Zzzz... Member

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    Gross profits are NOT equal to earnings. You need to subtract SG&A, R&D, taxes and some other minor things to get EPS.
     
  7. mitch672

    mitch672 Active Member

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    Investary Group - Stock of the decade. (YouTube video)
    YouTube
     
  8. Zzzz...

    Zzzz... Member

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  9. mulder1231

    mulder1231 Active Member

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    #9 mulder1231, Apr 3, 2013
    Last edited: Apr 3, 2013
    There was a Morgan Stanley alert this morning, reflecting on the announcement from yesterday. But no revised target (yet). It did make the prediction of imminent capital raise:

    Btw. When did they have a $250 target? Highest I'm aware of is $70.

    image.jpg
     
  10. Citizen-T

    Citizen-T Active Member

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  11. NigelM

    NigelM Recovering Member

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  12. Curt Renz

    Curt Renz Active Member

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    #12 Curt Renz, Apr 6, 2013
    Last edited: Apr 8, 2013
    MarketEdge Raises TSLA to Strong Buy

    Effective Monday, MarketEdge/Second Opinion will be raising Tesla Motors (TSLA) to a strong buy.

    The following is from the MarketEdge/Second Opinion commentary at TD Ameritrade: Market Edge - Second Opinion Weekly

    [FONT=&amp]Second Opinion[SUP]®[/SUP] Weekly - TESLA MOTORS (TSLA)
    Exchange: NMS[/FONT]
    [FONT=&amp]
    Close as of week ending
    4/5/2013[/FONT]

    [FONT=&amp]Opinion[/FONT]
    [FONT=&amp]LONG[/FONT]

    [FONT=&amp]Date Opinion Formed[/FONT]
    [FONT=&amp]04/08/13[/FONT]​

    [FONT=&amp]Price Opinion Formed[/FONT]
    [FONT=&amp]41.37[/FONT]​


    [FONT=&amp]Score[/FONT]
    [FONT=&amp]0[/FONT]

    [FONT=&amp]C-Rate[/FONT]
    [FONT=&amp]0.0 [/FONT]​



    [FONT=&amp]UPGRADED[/FONT]



    [FONT=&amp]Recommendation[/FONT]
    [FONT=&amp]Stock is a Strong Buy.[/FONT]
    [FONT=&amp]Comment[/FONT]
    [FONT=&amp]Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) indicates a Bullish Trend.[/FONT]
    [FONT=&amp]Chart pattern indicates a Weak Upward Trend.[/FONT]
    [FONT=&amp]Relative Strength is Bullish.[/FONT]
    [FONT=&amp]Up/Down volume pattern indicates that the stock is under Accumulation.[/FONT]
    [FONT=&amp]The 50 day Moving Average is rising which is Bullish.[/FONT]
    [FONT=&amp]The 200 day Moving Average is rising which is Bullish.[/FONT]
    [FONT=&amp]Look for Support at 35.96[/FONT]
    [FONT=&amp]Stock broke Double Top (Bullish) Point & Figure Chart Formation Last Week[/FONT]
     
  13. Curt Renz

    Curt Renz Active Member

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    Previously MarketEdge had upgraded TSLA from Sell to Neutral on March 22 which was reiterated on March 28.
     
  14. GlennAlanBerry

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    I think it is interesting that Edward Jones has no research opinion on TSLA
     
  15. MikeL

    MikeL some guy

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    Hey Curt, I'm jumping into your thread to ask a question I think might be relevant. Wouldn't be surprised now if it happens again Mon. Q: why do the big movements in TSLA usually happen in the first hour of trading (often the first 10 min) & then bounce around within a very narrow range for the rest of the day. Obviously there are plenty of exceptions, but it's a pattern I see a lot. So I'm wondering why, what it means & does it matter. Is it something that results from something specific about Tesla, the near-record short interest? The type of company, or it's size? Or is this a common thing across the markets that just happens that way? Thanks, ML
     
  16. Curt Renz

    Curt Renz Active Member

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    #16 Curt Renz, Apr 6, 2013
    Last edited: Apr 6, 2013
    Most brokerage guidance is based on fundamental analysis. When a relatively new company has no record of profits yet is making a product that has unlimited potential, a fundamental analyst has little basis for making a prediction that depends on hard facts. In a few years the company may be bankrupt or the next Apple. A middle ground estimate is likely to be wrong. So many analysts not wanting to look foolish, decline to follow the stock. The MarketEdge guidance seen here is based on technical analysis, which is the subject of my book. That essentially relies on patterns of price and trading volume to infer what the market may know or feel collectively that no individual has the ability to discern through personal knowledge.

    - - - Updated - - -

    The stock is susceptible to manipulation due to its mid-level of trading volume and the wide range of possibilities for the company’s future. The stock’s relatively high valuation and high short interest imply that opinions are extreme in both directions. Someone with a large short position can conduct additional heavy shorting during the opening minutes of a session. The resulting price drop gets magnified due to a cascading effect as the price drops through stop loss limits set by share owners. Others panic. The entity with the short position can then cover much of that throughout the day by buying back slowly at depressed prices. The reverse can happen when good news before the market opening causes the stops of shorts to be triggered during the early minutes of trading. Perhaps a few nimble day traders can take advantage of this volatility, but most long term investors are better off ignoring the noise.
     
  17. MikeL

    MikeL some guy

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    Thanks, I will continue to ignore it (while watching it carefully!). Although I could have done some profit taking several times since buying TSLA in Jan., I'm more comfortable just knowing at this point, I'd rather have the stock than the cash. We are here at a very exciting time. Here's to more analyst upgrades! ML
     
  18. kenliles

    kenliles Active Member

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    good advice from Curt- I'll note here though another alternative (only if it suits your activity profile). Some on this board do both from different pools of money. Stay long with an investment that ignores the noise, so you are always in play for your basic belief in Tesla(stock or LEAPS work well for this). Then with a completely separate pool source, buy on downswings and sell on rises to capture volatility swings. Just a thought if you happen to also be a day follower. One way to just try it for while to test comfort, is use stock for tiny buy-sells, then if comfortable slowly increase amounts. Of course the disadvantage of small amounts is the commission percentage eats up gains. Otherwise just sticking to your long position and watching is best advice as Curt suggests
     
  19. MikeL

    MikeL some guy

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    Thanks, cool clear advice is certainly welcome. I bought-in in 3 smallish batches (not including the time I sold it all once by accident by placing the limit order wrong.) :eek: So assigning a third of it, or so, for trading would work for me I think. Funny thing is, my TSLA keeps going up! -that is, on the days it doesn't go down - Ha!
     
  20. blakegallagher

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