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Analyst Reports/Targets

Discussion in 'TSLA Investor Discussions' started by NigelM, Feb 25, 2013.

  1. mulder1231

    mulder1231 Active Member

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    #21 mulder1231, Apr 28, 2013
    Last edited: Apr 28, 2013
    There was an April 26 research note, titled "Billionaire's Poker".

    In this note they are reiterating their concern about the Tesla order book (based on delivery estimates now 1 month after ordering), and explain why this concern is not reflected in the current stock price, with four theories:

    1. Income from ZEV credits (JP referred to this in his recent post on Seeking Alpha)
    2. Model S prospects in China
    3. Tesla is in a strong position to raise additional capital
    4. Model S is just a damn good car

    I particularly liked the last one, and the comment about a group of BMW engineers who did not think Tesla would be able to pull it off:

    - - - Updated - - -

    Regarding the ZEV credits and JP's negative take on it, this is discussed at length in the Nonsense-from-John-Petersen thread starting here.

    Morgan Stanley has a more interesting take on it:

     
  2. brianman

    brianman Burrito Founder

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    Let's go with the simple $100k that people like to keep quoting. 13.9% is kinda huge.
     
  3. mulder1231

    mulder1231 Active Member

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    Cross post from the TESLIVE Speakers and Topics thread, as people here may know some analyst that should be invited to participate in a TESLIVE session on investing.

    TESLIVE seems to like the idea of a panel on investing strategies with an analyst as moderator.

    However, Adam Jones from Morgan Stanley is not available. So here are some additional names of analysts who are regulars on the Tesla earnings calls that I suggest the organizers check into as possible moderator for a session at TESLIVE:

    Himanshu Patel - JPMorgan, Senior Equity Analyst (has followed automotive sector for eight years)
    Andrea James - Dougherty & Company, Vice President, Senior Research Analyst (has been on Bloomberg)
    Patrick Archambault - Goldman Sachs, Vice President, US Automotive (has been bullish on TSLA)
    Dan Galves - Deutsche Bank, automotive research VP (conservative $35 target)
    Carter Driscoll - Capstone Investment, Wall Street analyst (slapped a sell rating on Tesla three years ago)
    Ben Schuman - Pacific Crest (liked Musk fighting back NYT Broder episode)
    Ravi Shanker - Morgan Stanley, Vice President and Lead Analyst for the North American automotive sector
    John Licata - Blue Phoenix, Energy strategist (has been on Fox News)
    Amir Rozwadowski – Barclays Capital (Tesla top pick in clean tech)
    Elaine Kwei – Jefferies & Co. (has been on Bloomberg)
    John Lovallo – Bank of America-Merrill Lynch (downgraded Tesla after Q4 earnings last February)
    Ben Kallo – Robert W. Baird, expert green tech analyst (has been on Bloomberg w/ Cory Johnson)
    Aaron Chew - was Maxim Group analyst covering Tesla, now VP of Investor Relations at SolarCity

    If you have any other suggestions, or a particular preference for one of the above, please comment.
     
  4. 30seconds

    30seconds Active Member

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    not quite a magazine cover, but sure seem strange / horrible idea to have a panel like this. In my opinion TSLA is a very high risk stock (I'm long) and should be treated accordingly to the investing public
     
  5. mulder1231

    mulder1231 Active Member

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    #25 mulder1231, Apr 30, 2013
    Last edited: Apr 30, 2013
    Well, maybe you misunderstood. The panel would not be the list of analysts listed in my post, but would consist of TMC members sharing their investor experience and opinions on TSLA.

    We'd invite just one analyst as the moderator. In my opinion it would be interesting and educational, especially if they pick an analyst who is not so bullish on the stock, that could make for interesting discussions and perspectives.
     
  6. mulder1231

    mulder1231 Active Member

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    #27 mulder1231, May 13, 2013
    Last edited: May 13, 2013
    Morgan Stanley preliminarily ups price target to $77, based on new Tesla guidance, while needing more time for a full review of all variables, now that Tesla has moved passed the viability question:

    Here's how they arrived at the preliminary $77 target:

     
  7. kenliles

    kenliles Active Member

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    imo they're using the wrong multiple (as many will no doubt); Given the leverage points of new scales achievable and complete industry disruption spanning cars-fuel-infrastructure, the multiples on this stock will outstrip any current auto mfg for many years imo (and rightfully so).
    Harley Davidson? got to be kidding me- a brand so established, they've made the same sound for 100 years
    In my view, This is more evidence - they just don't get it and won't for a very long time
     
  8. Citizen-T

    Citizen-T Active Member

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    Agreed. Multiple is too low. They need to stop comparing to automakers and start looking at tech companies for a comparable multiple.
     
  9. ckessel

    ckessel Active Member

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    How does that end up working, say 7-10 years from now, when other auto makers have EVs? Do their multiples go up? Does Tesla's come down?
     
  10. Citizen-T

    Citizen-T Active Member

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    Tesla's comes down. The same is true for tech companies. Look at IBM's multiple or Apple's multiple or Microsoft's multiple. Then look at Salesforce.com or Netflix.

    The market pays for future earnings. When you have a company like Tesla where the sky is the limit for what they might become, the market will award a higher multiple. Toyota has already pretty much saturated the market, there isn't room to grow; therefore, they get a smaller multiple.
     
  11. kenliles

    kenliles Active Member

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    exactly- Tesla was the disruptive force that propelled their growth while others react to the disruption to regain industry position. At that time Tesla's multiple will come down substantially, while the entire industry multiple moves up slightly as market changes- but by that time Tesla will be potentially as big as the rest of them (or bigger in profit)- imo we should see multiple for TSLA in the 20-40+ range for several years (through Gen III at least)
     
  12. mulder1231

    mulder1231 Active Member

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    Well, that full review didn't take long, Morgan Stanley today increased their price target to $103. Here's their reasoning:

    4 key drivers of our price target to $103 from $47:
    We continue to value Tesla on a 15-year DCF with a 12% WACC but update our assumptions to consider new information. (1) First time inclusion of regulatory credits of >$220m/year, adding $15 per Tesla share. (2) Exit EBITDA multiple up to 9x from 7x to reflect strong launch execution and declining going-concern risk. (3) A 40% increase in our Model S est to 30k by 2015. (4) A 70% increase in Gen 3 volume and other efficiencies.
     
  13. Soflason

    Soflason Member

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    Wow, buckle in for another exciting TSLA ride today...
     
  14. AlMc

    AlMc 'Senior Moments' member

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    I feel like I have a Tiger by the tail. Do I hold on or let go. Never had a stock that tripled in a couple months. But, like the 'S' itself..it is a fun ride.
     
  15. toastypasta

    toastypasta Member

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    Can someone link to this Morgan Stanley update? i can't seem to find it.
     
  16. SteveG3

    SteveG3 Active Member

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    this is great! I'd been wondering if Tesla could expect to continue to maintain these in out years. This certainly implies they can for quite some time. That's pretty much $2/share more each than I'd modeled in my head. Starting to see how Tesla is so confident about paying DOE loan early.

    The raise to 30k Model S in 2015 is amusing... conservative. To be fair these guys went out in front of the pack making a $103 price target.
     
  17. TD1

    TD1 Member

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    yes please
     
  18. CapitalistOppressor

    CapitalistOppressor Active Member

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    #39 CapitalistOppressor, May 14, 2013
    Last edited: May 14, 2013
    Fearless Prediction - Morgan Stanley Will Revise Guidance Upwards Again. Soon.

    Maybe.

    I sent an e-mail to Adam Jonas last night about some really major problems in their previous research note (which in fairness, was "under review), and asked if they wanted help fixing it, lol.

    Very early this morning they released their new research. I must say it is a far superior product, and they are now clearly aware of the primary revenue streams that Tesla relies on, including what looks at first glance like a decent regulatory credit model.

    However, they also tried to fix a particularly nasty systemic error that existed in their previous report (and probably earlier ones). But instead of fixing it, they doubled it. Apparently anyways. I don't see any other way to interpret their model, so I am going to e-mail Adam again and see if they have a reasonable explanation.

    If I don't hear back from him, I'll the post the data on here and see if anyone can come up with a better explanation than my own :smile:
     
  19. brianstorms

    brianstorms Member

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    Is this morning's research available on some web URL? Or is it something one has to pay to read?
     

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