Welcome to Tesla Motors Club
Discuss Tesla's Model S, Model 3, Model X, Model Y, Cybertruck, Roadster and More.
Register

Analyst Reports/Targets

This site may earn commission on affiliate links.
lol - this pricey MS analyst came to same the conclusion I did on a piece of paper only a year late. Why do these clowns get paid? TSLA's fundamental case is childishly simple to calculate. It was always the engineering and manufacturing uncertainty of building the right car that people had to be worried about.

+1 they shouldn't be paid imo. there are precious few that have any real value- and those are making money in other ways
 
Bank of America sets a $37 price target on Tesla Motors Inc (16 May 2013)

Link: http://www.valuewalk.com/2013/05/tesla-motors-inc-tsla-an-opportunistic-capital-raise/

Tesla Motors Inc (TSLA): An Opportunistic Capital Raise

May 16, 2013
By Paul Shea





Bank of America has set a $37 price target on Tesla Motors Inc, seemingly after studying what other analysts are ignoring-the risk factors.

In response to the news that Tesla Motors Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA) was planning to offer additional shares to the market, Bank of America Corp (NYSE:BAC) released a new report on the company. The BAC report is, as it readily admits, out of consensus, and that’s what really makes it interesting.
In a period when analysts seem to be competing on who can give Tesla Motors Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA) the highest price target, some pessimism is refreshing, and it could be very educational. The report puts a twelve months price target of $37 on Tesla Motors Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA) shares, unchanged on the news of the new offering from the company.The Bank of America report bases its valuation of Tesla Motors Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA) on a 18.5X multiple of expected 2013 earnings. One thing that the Bank of America Corp (NYSE:BAC) report does that few analysts have managed to do when it comes to Tesla Motors is provide a decent amount of detail on downside risks.Most recent reports on the electric car manufacturer contained only a couple of risk factors, some of them almost laughably miniscule. A recent Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) report on the company named just two risk factors, and one of them was the company’s price guarantee three years down the line.
The Bank of America Corp (NYSE:BAC) report, at the very least, reads like due diligence has been done. There are twelve risk factors in the report: 1)Inability to lower costs and increase cashflow, 2) less than expected EV demand growth, 3) setbacks in battery technology, 4) competition, 5)raw material costs, 6) expansion efficiency problems, 7) government policy changes, 8) inability to pay loans, 9) low gas prices, 10)management changes, 11) financial reporting problems, and 12) decline in luxury vehicle demand.
There are serious risks associated with Tesla Motors Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA), and many analysts appear to be ignoring them. The momentum is with the company, but the stock is a much riskier bet now than it was three months ago, simply because its price has doubled in a month.
Tesla Motors Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA) has made an exceptional vehicle in the Model S, but that doesn’t mean there are no risks going forward. Tesla has a long hard climb, and it seems disingenuous to continue upping price targets, while seemingly ignoring risk factors.
There are few people left who want Tesla Motors Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA) to lose. The firm is a classic story of American innovation. That doesn’t mean that investors should tell themselves a fairy tale.

Article source: http://www.valuewalk.com/2013/05/tesla-motors-inc-tsla-an-opportunistic-capital-raise/
 
There's some serious WTF in their risks:
The report puts a twelve months price target of $37
Ok, so we're only looking out 12 months.
2) less than expected EV demand growth,
Uh, they don't need growth, the steady state will see them through 12 months. But ok, I'll give them this one.
3) setbacks in battery technology
WTF? What do they think is going to happen to Li-ion batteries in the next 12 months? How on earth would the technology have a setback within 12 months?
4) competition,
Bwahahahaha! Really, a competitor is going to emerge in 12 months?
8) inability to pay loans,
Well, ok, that might have been true when they wrote it, but it isn't now.

Some of the others I could quibble with too, like management changes, but I'll give those credence in the due diligence category.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
WTF? What do they think is going to happen to Li-ion batteries in the next 12 months? How on earth would the technology have a setback within 12 months?

Hypothetically:

Boeing 787 catches fire again while in flight. Aircraft crashes - killing all on board. FAA determines that the fire started in the Li-ion batteries, AGAIN. Extra measures taken in early 2013 during the worldwide grounding of the 787 fleet were of no use. FAA's decision to allow the 787 to return to the skies with the Li-ion batteries publicly criticis(z)ed. Nation mourns. Heads roll at the top of FAA. New FAA head declares all Li-ion batteries banned from aircraft for the foreseeable future. Stocks of Li-ion linked stocks dive. FOX News wonders when Tesla cars are going to explode - suggests owners avoid driving up to higher altitudes in the meantime. Politicians weigh in, possible knee-jerk reaction of banning Li-ion powered vehicles from roads for "safety" reasons. Tesla fleet "grounded". Aliens seize the opportunity to beam up all Tesla cars for their own use cause, well, stationary targets are easier to beam up than the entire fleet driving all over the place, no? Elon Musk surprised by missing vehicles the next day. Instructs SpaceX to launch an immediate mission to chase the aliens to get the cars back. Aerosmith composes new song for mission. Elon Musk leaves the planet. (...) Everyone dies.
 
Hypothetically:

Boeing 787 catches fire again while in flight. Aircraft crashes - killing all on board. FAA determines that the fire started in the Li-ion batteries, AGAIN. Extra measures taken in early 2013 during the worldwide grounding of the 787 fleet were of no use. FAA's decision to allow the 787 to return to the skies with the Li-ion batteries publicly criticis(z)ed. Nation mourns. Heads roll at the top of FAA. New FAA head declares all Li-ion batteries banned from aircraft for the foreseeable future. Stocks of Li-ion linked stocks dive. FOX News wonders when Tesla cars are going to explode - suggests owners avoid driving up to higher altitudes in the meantime. Politicians weigh in, possible knee-jerk reaction of banning Li-ion powered vehicles from roads for "safety" reasons. Tesla fleet "grounded". Aliens seize the opportunity to beam up all Tesla cars for their own use cause, well, stationary targets are easier to beam up than the entire fleet driving all over the place, no? Elon Musk surprised by missing vehicles the next day. Instructs SpaceX to launch an immediate mission to chase the aliens to get the cars back. Aerosmith composes new song for mission. Elon Musk leaves the planet. (...) Everyone dies.

LOL, you just wrote the basic script for Ironman 4.

- - - Updated - - -

BofA heavily into oil?

It has always been my least favorite bank that I have banked with but wow

BofA is a horrible bank, their loan department, worse than used car salesmen. Too big to fail, I hate them all. I moved all my accounts over to Ally bank after the crash in 2008. Who needs brick-and-mortor banks anyway.
 
No criteria. A company can split the stock whenever they want. However, given that Tesla is a Silicon Valley company, the new trend is to not split ala Google and Apple. High share prices are cool.

Yep. Historically, companies would split their stock to keep the value within some reasonable range. This made the stock more accessible to retell investors, who typically were only able to afford small block of shares even at two digit valuations. Berkshire Hathaway led the charge in not splitting stock, retail investors be damned. Given improved trading software, the penalty for trading odd lots of shares has for all intents and purposes vanished. That's a long way of saying that I wouldn't look for Tesla to be splitting its stock anytime soon.