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Interesting that we started this thread on 2/25...
And almost exactly five months later DB has a new target of $160.
And almost exactly five months later DB has a new target of $160.
StapleGun
Member
Just read through the Deutsche bank report. They make a very strong case for a $280/share price by 2016. However, I found it weird that they seemed hesitant to raise any Q2 projections above Tesla's guidance even though Q3 and beyond all seemed to be revised generously upwards. This despite the fact that they claimed several times that the average production in Q2 was around 500 vehicles/week, or about a 6,000 vehicle/quarter pace.
They may want to give the bears something to hang onto .....
It sounds as if anyone who actually reads their report will expect an upside for q2 ... but if you are a bear and looking for something to hang onto you can still hope for a q2 loss.
On yahoo there is a blog post with discussion of Q2 earnings and a "reaffirming" of their price target of a revenue number of $385 million and a -.21 EPS. http://blogs.barrons.com/stockstowa...car-wedbush-sees-in-line-q2/?mod=yahoobarrons
Can someone enlighten me on the disconnect between "analysts" and the information that is readily available on this site...a couple of examples:
1. "the factory will produce around 5,000 vehicles, but hundreds will still be in transit to Europe"
2. "we model 2Q13 delivery of 4700 Model S vehicles, with gross margins of 18.0%"
3. "We expect Tesla to report essentially in-line 2Q13 results. We are looking for 2Q13 rev/EPS of $385m/($.21)"
(I am assuming they mean GAAP revenue and EPS)
4. No discussion of lease accounting or ZEV credits
5. No discussion of production rates or demand
In addition to basing their numbers on some shaky rationale, if you assume a $385m revenue a ($.21) loss per share, and GM of 18%, then:
1.To balance revenue, Gross Margin, ZEV and expenses, it would model out to assumptions of (4700 cars) x ($75k/car - non-ZEV) x (.18 Gross Margin), $25m of ZEV credits and $115m of expenses = $385m revenue and (.21)/share
or
2.With $60million in ZEV you have a revenue/car # of about $69k (down from $113k in the first quarter) to get to the revenue estimate of $385m
and
3. you would need a revenue/car of low $20k to get to negative EPS. If you start with 60% of your R&D and SG&A paid for by credits, it is difficult to get a negative EPS (see Q1 2013).
or.....
You kind of get the picture. I was wondering how the consensus estimate could be $396m in revenue and (.16) in EPS....I think the analysts are putting in random numbers to meet their assumptions and then justifying them with terms like "headwinds", "underabsorption of overhead", etc.
2 things stand out from this "reaffirming"
1. TMC should be mandatory reading for analysts
2. If the shorts are following analyst guidance, then the slaughter will continue.
Can someone enlighten me on the disconnect between "analysts" and the information that is readily available on this site...a couple of examples:
1. "the factory will produce around 5,000 vehicles, but hundreds will still be in transit to Europe"
2. "we model 2Q13 delivery of 4700 Model S vehicles, with gross margins of 18.0%"
3. "We expect Tesla to report essentially in-line 2Q13 results. We are looking for 2Q13 rev/EPS of $385m/($.21)"
(I am assuming they mean GAAP revenue and EPS)
4. No discussion of lease accounting or ZEV credits
5. No discussion of production rates or demand
In addition to basing their numbers on some shaky rationale, if you assume a $385m revenue a ($.21) loss per share, and GM of 18%, then:
1.To balance revenue, Gross Margin, ZEV and expenses, it would model out to assumptions of (4700 cars) x ($75k/car - non-ZEV) x (.18 Gross Margin), $25m of ZEV credits and $115m of expenses = $385m revenue and (.21)/share
or
2.With $60million in ZEV you have a revenue/car # of about $69k (down from $113k in the first quarter) to get to the revenue estimate of $385m
and
3. you would need a revenue/car of low $20k to get to negative EPS. If you start with 60% of your R&D and SG&A paid for by credits, it is difficult to get a negative EPS (see Q1 2013).
or.....
You kind of get the picture. I was wondering how the consensus estimate could be $396m in revenue and (.16) in EPS....I think the analysts are putting in random numbers to meet their assumptions and then justifying them with terms like "headwinds", "underabsorption of overhead", etc.
2 things stand out from this "reaffirming"
1. TMC should be mandatory reading for analysts
2. If the shorts are following analyst guidance, then the slaughter will continue.
Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
Shh! Don't tell them. Let them short. And then short some more. And as the price reaches an ATH (as today) short some more!
Also, I agree I don't get how they come up with their negative number. I think they just decided on the fact that Q2 was going to be a loss and then made their model come up with that.
Last week Zacks Investment Research raised TSLA from short term Hold to Strong Buy. Yesterday it raised TSLA from long term Neutral to Outperform. Today it commented that the BMW i3 should not endanger the Tesla Model S: http://www.zacks.com/stock/news/105238/tesla-motors-rises-despite-bmw-i3-launch
Acmykguy
Member
So Curt, what is your price target after earnings are released? Do you see a sell on news? Do you see a squeeze and go up to the next Fibonacci level?
I do not have a copy of report but they went to hold not sell. Downside risk higher with the run up. I am long but also believe that it has risen too quickly. I doubt new news until end of q3 so I suspect it will drift to 140 range. I don't see this approaching 160 until Q3 report approaches.
Tesla Motors Inc (TSLA) EPS Estimate Reduced By Barclays
More on the link.... http://www.valuewalk.com/2013/09/tesla-motors-inc-tsla-eps-estimate/
More on the link.... http://www.valuewalk.com/2013/09/tesla-motors-inc-tsla-eps-estimate/
Norse
Active Member
http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/showthread.php/14261-Short-Term-TSLA-Price-Movements/page794
downgraded by the street
downgraded by the street
mershaw2001
I'm short the short sellers
I don't get how you can say it's downgraded. The market, with the exception of apple, was up pretty decently today and yet tesla took a 1.72% loss. I think the constant beats are taking the steam out of its momentum
Norse
Active Member
sorry, wrong link: http://www.thestreet.com/story/12033970/1/tesla-motors-inc-stock-downgraded-tsla.html Thestreet.com has downgraded it..
O'Neil Equity Research
Recently, O'Neil Equity Research published a "special report" on Tesla Motors. The report identifies a number of companies with historically rare and powerful chart patterns. They project a TSLA price target of $322 a share.
1. William O'Neil was the youngest man to ever purchase a chair on the NYSE.
2. William O'Neil founded Investor's Business, which later became Investor's Business Daily.
3. William O'Neil developed the CANSLIM methodology for picking high growth stocks, and made hundreds of millions dollars.
I am a little surprised this report is not getting more media attention.
Recently, O'Neil Equity Research published a "special report" on Tesla Motors. The report identifies a number of companies with historically rare and powerful chart patterns. They project a TSLA price target of $322 a share.
1. William O'Neil was the youngest man to ever purchase a chair on the NYSE.
2. William O'Neil founded Investor's Business, which later became Investor's Business Daily.
3. William O'Neil developed the CANSLIM methodology for picking high growth stocks, and made hundreds of millions dollars.
I am a little surprised this report is not getting more media attention.
andrewt3000
Member
Good idea to have a separate thread on this. Here's the article:
http://www.williamoneil.com/reports/Tesla.pdf
The High, Tight, Flag pattern.
How To Trade: Catching A High, Tight Flag Could Lead To Fast Riches - Investors.com
How To Trade: Catching A High, Tight Flag Could Lead To Fast Riches - Investors.com
I totally agree that Tesla is going to make another very big run-up. The more I think about it, the more I am convinced.
I believe the run from 40-150 was about a few things:
1) Tesla posted a profit despite a lot of wall street thinking they wouldn't (e.g. Wall street underestimated their earnings).
2) Tesla makes a great product
3) There was a lot of disagreement that really polarized opinions. One group thought Tesla would make it, the other thought Tesla would absolutely fail. The shorts were wrong and the squeeze happened.
Looking at TSLA today, what has changed? The product is still great. The plan is still great. A LOT of people are still shorting the stock. Unless something tragic happens, all these shorts are going to have to cover. When Q3 ER isn't bad, Q1 is going to happen all over again.
Tesla isn't really that much more "overvalued" at a 30B or 40B market cap than it is currently at a 20B market cap. In the minds of investors, they all want to jump on now because they believe Tesla will be disruptive. I think Tesla has a lot more growth coming by the end of the year.
I believe the run from 40-150 was about a few things:
1) Tesla posted a profit despite a lot of wall street thinking they wouldn't (e.g. Wall street underestimated their earnings).
2) Tesla makes a great product
3) There was a lot of disagreement that really polarized opinions. One group thought Tesla would make it, the other thought Tesla would absolutely fail. The shorts were wrong and the squeeze happened.
Looking at TSLA today, what has changed? The product is still great. The plan is still great. A LOT of people are still shorting the stock. Unless something tragic happens, all these shorts are going to have to cover. When Q3 ER isn't bad, Q1 is going to happen all over again.
Tesla isn't really that much more "overvalued" at a 30B or 40B market cap than it is currently at a 20B market cap. In the minds of investors, they all want to jump on now because they believe Tesla will be disruptive. I think Tesla has a lot more growth coming by the end of the year.
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