Analyst Reports/Targets

[AlMc]

I totally agree that Tesla is going to make another very big run-up. The more I think about it, the more I am convinced.

I believe the run from 40-150 was about a few things:

1) Tesla posted a profit despite a lot of wall street thinking they wouldn't (e.g. Wall street underestimated their earnings).
2) Tesla makes a great product
3) There was a lot of disagreement that really polarized opinions. One group thought Tesla would make it, the other thought Tesla would absolutely fail. The shorts were wrong and the squeeze happened.

Looking at TSLA today, what has changed? The product is still great. The plan is still great. A LOT of people are still shorting the stock. Unless something tragic happens, all these shorts are going to have to cover. When Q3 ER isn't bad, Q1 is going to happen all over again.

Tesla isn't really that much more "overvalued" at a 30B or 40B market cap than it is currently at a 20B market cap. In the minds of investors, they all want to jump on now because they believe Tesla will be disruptive. I think Tesla has a lot more growth coming by the end of the year.

I agree with you...but I think Q3 will blow out the expectations of investment advisors . Demand still outstrips supply for the S in the US.. Production numbers indicate that it is possible that we will have the amount delivered at the end of Q3 being equal to the projections for the entire 2013 year. Gross margins heading more towards the magic 25% mark by eoy. News/guidance that Asian and European reservations are 'big' and battery constraints/bottleneck is being controlled. Reservations growing on the 'X'.


Look out shorts could be a second tsunami.

 

[sleepyhead]

Just wanted to point out that O'Neil research is a little late with calling this High, Tight Flag Pattern. The buy signal according to this pattern was on July 1st when TSLA broke out above $115. Since then the stock has moved up another 50%.

 

[Jonathan Hewitt]

Just wanted to point out that O'Neil research is a little late with calling this High, Tight Flag Pattern. The buy signal according to this pattern was on July 1st when TSLA broke out above $115. Since then the stock has moved up another 50%.

Late is better than never At least they predict that it should continue going up, unlike the shorts who think the stock is DOOMED and OVERVALUED! Oh no!

 

[ongba]

Does anyone have any experience with this Oneil Equity Research, ie is it worth subscribing to, and if so, what is the cost? Thanks.

 

[Ryo]

So if this report is accurate Tesla will hit at least $322 per share. If we assume it will do in the average time frame of stocks that have previously fit this high, tight flag pattern - 29 weeks - then that leaves us 18 weeks remaining (since 11 has passed since forming the flag). This puts us in the second half of January 2014 @ 322/share or higher.

(1) Does anyone really think TSLA could see these gains in this timeframe?
(2) Assuming you think this is possible and you're willing to speculate a small portion of your portfolio to maximize gains from this event. What would you do? Way OTM options I assume?

 

[DaveT]

Just wanted to point out that O'Neil research is a little late with calling this High, Tight Flag Pattern. The buy signal according to this pattern was on July 1st when TSLA broke out above $115. Since then the stock has moved up another 50%.

Actually IBD Leaderboard (another service set up by O'neil) called the high tight flag pattern while TSLA was at $105 and encouraged investors to pour in if it broke through $115, which it did.

On a side note, IBD Leaderboard has been keeping TSLA as a one of the twenty or so "market leaders" they feature since it was at $105 w/the high, tight flag pattern. But after that $115 buy recommendation, they haven't been able to issue another buy recommendation since saying the stock is overextended from their previously $115 buy recommendation.

But just Friday, IBD Leaderboard made this note to TSLA:
"Tesla Motors has formed a new buy setup after its recent huge run-up. It's now in a three-weeks-tight pattern with a 173.80 buy point. It's also still 44% past its 115 buy point from a rare high-tight-flag pattern. The stock had been trading tightly after running sharply higher in recent months -- a sign of support."

So, basically they're making a buy point recommendation at $173.80.

This is huge because a lot of people follow IBD and their Leaderboard. And a lot of traders are going to be talking about this number, $173.80, now since IBD has given their buy point recommendation. This will (or at least should) build anticipation.

 

[Wanabee]

Tesla Motors Gains 2% on Potential Battery Boost

The article, from Barron's Stocks To Watch column today, quotes
from a Global Equities Research report by Trip Chowdhry and team:

Tesla is creating a new Transport-as-a-Service industry,
which is probably about a $100 Billion Industry. Over the
next 5 years, we think, Tesla may capture about 60% of
this Industry. Innovation velocity at Tesla far exceeds
that of other Hyper Growth Companies such as Amazon.com
and Salesforce.com.​

Chowdhry raised his price target on Tesla to $225 from $150.

On a separate note, I see that Tesla is filing patent applications
for combining hybrid air and non-air batteries with controls to
maximize range.

 

[blakegallagher]

Hey, welcome to the forum. Great first post.

 

[Convert2013]

Posted this on the Short-term thread also as it probably belongs in both. Deutsche Bank raises TSLA from $160 to $200 (I don't have the full article):

http://www.theflyonthewall.com/perm...rice-target-raised-to--from--at-Deutsche-Bank

 

[bareyb]

I've only bought one stock in my entire life and that was APPL when Gil Amelio was doing his best to destroy the company. I now feel compelled to invest again in TSLA. Is it too late to get in? Can I make money on the stock long term?

 

[sleepyhead]

I've only bought one stock in my entire life and that was APPL when Gil Amelio was doing his best to destroy the company. I now feel compelled to invest again in TSLA. Is it too late to get in? Can I make money on the stock long term?

Long term you will see $500+ by the end of this decade for sure; unless the global economy goes into depression.

In the short run, you might see a dip here and there, and if we hit a recession next year you might even see sub $100 pricing - although very doubtful at this point.

But if we do have a recession in 2014/15 and another bull market in 2016 - 2020, then you will probably see TSLA at $1000 by 2020.

It is a great buy long term, i.e. 5 - 10 years.

 

[bareyb]

Long term you will see $500+ by the end of this decade for sure; unless the global economy goes into depression.

In the short run, you might see a dip here and there, and if we hit a recession next year you might even see sub $100 pricing - although very doubtful at this point.

But if we do have a recession in 2014/15 and another bull market in 2016 - 2020, then you will probably see TSLA at $1000 by 2020.

It is a great buy long term, i.e. 5 - 10 years.

I think we are going to do it before it goes any higher.

 

[sleepyhead]

I think we are going to do it before it goes any higher.

If we don't see a recession then your next entry point might be $200 very shortly.

 

[bareyb]

If we don't see a recession then your next entry point might be $200 very shortly.

Kinda makes me wish I'd jumped on it last year when it first appeared on my radar. Unfortunately by the time I became fully aware of what was happening, so had everyone else...

 

[AlMc]

Kinda makes me wish I'd jumped on it last year when it first appeared on my radar. Unfortunately by the time I became fully aware of what was happening, so had everyone else...

I have been telling my brother for the last 6 months to buy TSLA. He keeps waiting for the 'big dip'......I have starting calling him a BIG DIP for not investing sooner. he is still on the sidelines??:biggrin:

 

[blakegallagher]

Its ok you are still not too late. There are more people than ever misinformed about TSLA and thinking it is overvalued. If you are willing to hold now , it will look like a great entry point 5 years from now ... recession or not.

 

[bareyb]

If we don't see a recession then your next entry point might be $200 very shortly.

We just bought 30 shares. Not a whole lot, but at least we are in. We got in at $179.00

 

[AlMc]

We just bought 30 shares. Not a whole lot, but at least we are in. We got in at $179.00

welcome to the club.

 

[Convert2013]

welcome to the club.

Yes welcome to the party. Medium term we will double bag, long term we will 10-bag, so hold on tight.

 

[bareyb]

welcome to the club.

Look at that spike today...

- - - Updated - - -

Yes welcome to the party. Medium term we will double bag, long term we will 10-bag, so hold on tight.

That would be awesome. Thanks!