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Analyst Reports/Targets

Discussion in 'TSLA Investor Discussions' started by NigelM, Feb 25, 2013.

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  1. Theshadows

    Theshadows Active Member

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    I would hate to have that job then. I don't see why you would spend the time analyzing something you are forbidden to do business (trade) in?

    One of the reasons I trade solar stocks is because I feel like I am killing two birds with one stone since my work in the industry means I have to do less research to invest in companies that are publicly traded in the industry. I also feel it allows me to offer our customers the best products that are created by the best companies in the industry.
     
  2. FluxCap

    FluxCap Active Member

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    They do it because they are paid very, very well by their investment banks while they are working as analysts (and don't have to guess at their income), and then can take their connections and experience elsewhere to trade on them (such as private equity, pension funds, hedge funds, etc).
     
  3. bonnie

    bonnie I play a nice person on twitter.

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    I doubt he's shorted it personally, but when I saw his new report/price target I fired off a note to my ML advisor. I've been with them a long time, have a healthy portfolio, am charged zero fees, and if it wasn't for the advisor (as I told him in the note), I'd move 100% of my assets based on this report alone. It's sloppy work and begs the question of just how many ML clients are shorting this stock.

    So I get home from work tonight and I have a personal note from a ML vice president saying he will look further into the TSLA analysis and get back to me. "And if in the meantime, you would like to chat on the phone, please feel free to call my direct number." I would be foolish to expect anything to change, but still it warms my heart to know that at least one person knows of my dissatisfaction.
     
  4. Andrew

    Andrew Model S #6151, Model 3 #1576

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    Morgan Stanley's explanation of $320 target: "Nikola's Revenge: Part 2"

    My dad just forwarded this to me from his broker... Didn't see it posted here yet, so I thought I'd share. Thirty-three pages of pure TSLA/Tesla/Gigafactory/Solar geekiness! (Mods please feel free to merge wherever appropriate.)

     
  5. FluxCap

    FluxCap Active Member

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    Wow, this is squeezeville now. I just read the AJ note. I'll provide a quote here:

    AJ 8-6.png
     
  6. uselesslogin

    uselesslogin Supporting Member

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    Yeah, the market has not yet come to the realization that the Model S is the second worst car Tesla will ever make. At least when you account for price of course. (ie Model 3 will not be as good but will be better for the money)
     
  7. FANGO

    FANGO Active Member

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    This is a good point, the cars really will only get better from here. There's always the chance they'll come out with a dud if Franz gets a little too experimental and people aren't into it, or something, but at least Tesla shows off their models early enough to gauge public reception and change them if people don't see to be into it, so that helps prevent possible duds anyway.

    Also, I'm not even sure about that parenthetical. I bet a well-specced Model 3 will be better than a low-specced early-model S in a lot of ways, since Tesla will have worked out a lot of fit and finish and interior bugs by then and will just generally be a better automaker (though I suppose there may be kinks on the way to six-digit volume production, which is a whole different game than five-digit volumes). Either way, any Model 3 will be more desirable to me than any S based on size factors alone.
     
  8. 30seconds

    30seconds Active Member

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    by the way the morgan stanley "Bull" case has a $500 price target by Aug 2015. this is built on the gigafactory creating "material disruption in premium car market with larger inroads into grid storage" by producing a $100/kWH pack
     
  9. vgrinshpun

    vgrinshpun Supporting Member

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    #169 vgrinshpun, Sep 5, 2014
    Last edited: Sep 5, 2014
    Trip Chowdhry of Global Equities Research issued a commentary following the GF event, clarified his earlier musings regarding GF2, GF3, put a $60B value on the GF when in operation in 2017. The digest accoridng to streetinsider.com:

    Global Equities Research is issuing commentary on Tesla Motors (Nasdaq: TSLA) following news Thursday night that the company and the State of Nevada inked a $1.25 billion deal for construction of a Gigafactory. The firm has Tesla at Overweight with a target price of $385.
    Analyst Trip Chowdhry offered the following insight:

    • Elon Musk said that "This is it" for the GigaFactory
      • Hence, there will not be any other locations - so no GigaFactory 2 or GigaFactory 3. Thus Arizona, California, Texas and New Mexico have missed out on GigaFactory
      • Nevada offered incentives of $1.25 billion, a lot more than what we were expecting. We were expecting the incentives to be about $300 million to $400 million
      • With incentives at $1.25 billion, Tesla motors does not need to build GigaFactories at other locations, hence Elon said "This is it"
      How should Investors value the GigaFactory?
      • One of the ways to think is the following - "What GigaFactory is to EV's (Electric Vehicles) :: Petroleum companies is to ICE (Internal Combustion Engine)"
      • The market cap of Chevron is $240 Billion; The market cap of Exxon Mobile is $420 Billion
      • Investors may want to give GigaFactory a %age value of either Chevron or Exxon Mobile
      • We think, when GigaFactory is fully operational in 2017, GigaFactory by itself could be valued at 25% valuation of Chevron, which would be about $60 Billion
     
  10. vgrinshpun

    vgrinshpun Supporting Member

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    #170 vgrinshpun, Sep 5, 2014
    Last edited: Sep 5, 2014
    The $60B value assigned to GF sounded a little optimistic to me, so I decided to do my own calculation to see what number do I get. My calc is based on quantity of cars that can be served by Chevron production vs. quantity of cars that can be served by the output of the GF. I will post the calc tonight in the Long Term thread, but the number I get is $4.4B based on 10 year lifetime of the car battery.

    Would be interesting to see which method T.C. Used to arrive at $60B.
     
  11. Lump

    Lump Active Member

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    I am struggling with the $60B valuation, I think some of these analyst are getting ahead of themselves & want to make outrages "Henry Blodget" claims purely to gain notoriety.
     
  12. vgrinshpun

    vgrinshpun Supporting Member

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    It does seem that his calculation (assuming that he did it) lacks rigor...
     
  13. Robert.Boston

    Robert.Boston Model S VIN P01536

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    This is silly thinking. First, Chowdhry should learn how to spell "ExxonMobil" (no space, no final 'e'). More substantively, petroleum companies have non-reproducible assets: oil reserves, government franchises, and industrial facilities that could not be built under current environmental standards. (The newest complex refinery with significant downstream unit capacity began operating in 1977 in Garyville, Louisiana.) There's nothing particularly unique about the Gigafactory, other than the exclusive relationship with Tesla Motors to supply battery packs. So, the plant is worst almost precisely what it costs to build.
     
  14. 30seconds

    30seconds Active Member

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    right now the plant is worth about as much as it will cost to build. However in a year or two it may be worth more as it may be the only large scale, low-cost battery production facility in the world. In that case it would give Tesla a massive advantage in terms of being able to build and sell high margin vehicles.
     
  15. AudubonB

    AudubonB Investing is fun!

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    Ouch.
    That update from Chowdhry was truly painful to read. Robert.B presented the salient sillypointes (sorry, GER: sillypoints); the reason I found it painful, however, was because it gives naysayers the FUD-powder so often used inappropriately against Tesla.

    Take your time to come up with appropriate analogies and appropriate research. I think those points Chowdhry enumerated are, unfortunately, a perfect example of why Mr. Musk yesterday used words like “I think our stock price is kind of high right now". Yet Chowdhry wrote that afterwards!.

    Ouch, ouch, ouch. Wall Street Journal is going to be jumping on that like a duck on a june bug.
     
  16. chickensevil

    chickensevil Active Member

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    #176 chickensevil, Sep 5, 2014
    Last edited by a moderator: Mar 13, 2016

    Note: it goes both ways... duck... chicken... either way, they sure do love them june bugs! :D
     
  17. adiggs

    adiggs Active Member

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    OMG chickenevil - love it. I'm still laughing :)

    (in my case, I grew up with chickens, so I know how they like bugs; seeing them in action does bring back good memories!)
     
  18. Derek Vinyard

    Derek Vinyard Member

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    Stifel reaffirms its PT $400, followed by FBN and Baird

    Good morning everyone

    Today James Albertine has confirmed his sexy $400 PT.
    Shebly Seyrafi from FBN Sec. confirmed her "outperform" rating and a PT of $325.
    Ben Kallo stays with his $275 PT.
     

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  19. mulder1231

    mulder1231 Active Member

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    Adam Jonas doing it again, just wait for the headlines. In a new research note he is addressing the potential of Tesla ditching the Model X falcon wing doors. But again, it seems he is starting a rumor, no evidence is presented. Here are a couple of quotes:

    And then later in the article:

    And then he goes on to present two options: choice A: proceed with falcon doors and choice B: ditch the falcon doors and redesign model X for more traditional doors. Duh..

    I guess all this speculation makes for an interesting article, but coming from Morgan Stanley, just count on a few headlines showing up, out of context, with a negative spin...
     
  20. Curt Renz

    Curt Renz Active Member

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    #180 Curt Renz, Nov 17, 2014
    Last edited: Nov 17, 2014
    I doubt that the final purchase decision by a potential buyer of a Model X will hinge on whether it has falcon wing doors. I'll trust Elon and his engineers to correctly determine whether those doors are worth the bother. Either way, I would not it expect it to affect Model X sales volume. It should not affect decisions to buy or sell TSLA shares, even though that may have been the case today, especially with bots reading the news. Cooler heads may soon prevail.
     

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