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Analysts notes, rating upgrades and other relevant news

Discussion in 'TSLA Investor Discussions' started by Auzie, Feb 19, 2015.

  1. Auzie

    Auzie Tree Hugger Member

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    It might be helpful to have all analysts notes in one thread, for easier review.

    Tesla Motors has received Neutral ratings in a recent Analyst update

    13 analysts have provided their ratings, giving the average of 2.23. Research firm Zacks gives it ratings of 3.

    1 analyst rated it strong sell
    1 analyst rated it sell
    3 analysts rated it hold
    3 analysts rated it buy
    5 analysts rated it strong buy

    13 analysts have set the short term price target of 255.69. The standard deviation is estimated at 89.74 (high volatility).

    Adam Jonas from Morgan Stanley has issued an update on Tesla. His new price target is 280. His ratings is overweight.

     
  2. Auzie

    Auzie Tree Hugger Member

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    Fox news bullish on Tesla?



    Short Fox report discusses AJ from Morgan Stanley bullish outlook, without contradicting or dismissing it. Now something's not right in the universe:confused:
     
  3. kenliles

    kenliles Active Member

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    My known world is exploding :)
     
  4. Auzie

    Auzie Tree Hugger Member

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    There is a Tesla rating list, 32 analysts

    Summary.JPG

    Target1.JPG
    Target2.JPG
    Target3.JPG

     
  5. Auzie

    Auzie Tree Hugger Member

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    #5 Auzie, Feb 21, 2015
    Last edited: Feb 21, 2015
    The latest Paulo Santos article on Tesla, Ripping the shorts' faces off, is unintentionally funny.

    Paulo makes the argument for analysts' conspiracy in the case of Amazon and Tesla. He sees similar pattern of cutting down the estimates to unreasonable levels, just to promote the companies and set up the stage for a beat :biggrin::confused::rolleyes:.

    Paulo apparently sees bankruptcy risk slowly emerging, rigged markets position on Tesla, drop in TSLA next week and short squeeze after Q1. I find his article amusing.
     
  6. Robert.Boston

    Robert.Boston Model S VIN P01536

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    We've discussed whether Tesla is sandbagging Q1 here, and I have to admit it does look that way. Still, the willful misrepresentations in this article border on humor, and it would be great if lots of shorts take his advice and close out there positions. The resulting short squeeze would make this article a self-fulfilling prophecy.
     
  7. Auzie

    Auzie Tree Hugger Member

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    Not only Tesla, analysts have scaled down in their eps estimates, so in a way PS is correct. I disagree with his interpretation of such actions.

    My view is that both Tesla team and analysts realize that Tesla's future path is difficult to execute and even more difficult to forecast. In such case, it is better to always be conservative. There is little upside and a lot of downside when giving too optimistic forecasts. High risk of falling short easily outweighs any temporary benefits of being too optimistic.

    Similar logic may apply when communicating with customers about uncertain car deliveries.

    PS seems to believe that such communication strategy is all a conspiracy to squeeze shorts. I believe that such communication on Tesla's part has nothing to do with sp management, it is just a natural learning evolution.
     
  8. 30seconds

    30seconds Active Member

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    For PS that was actually a coherent note. I am wondering about Q1 production guidance as well.
     
  9. Auzie

    Auzie Tree Hugger Member

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    On low Q1 guidance, PS argues that 1400 cars are already made in Q4 and thus Q1 guidance is relatively low compared to other quarters, if 1400 cars are part of it.

    Somehow he fails to consider that such lag between production and delivery exists between all quarters. Thus it is entirely possible to have similar discrepancy between Q1 produced and delivered cars. That difference of produced and delivered cars will flow to Q2, and so on, from quarter to quarter, there will always be a carryover.

    That carryover was perhaps larger between Q4 and Q1 due to a new model, seats issue and public holidays. Nevertheless, it is just a noise imo.

    In their bias, bears see only one side of the story, low number.
     
  10. Auzie

    Auzie Tree Hugger Member

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    Lohn Lovallo of Bank of America Merrill Lynch issued a note on Tesla.

    Any Tesla analysis different than above from JL should worry Tesla investors, considering his record.:rolleyes:

    His average return in the last year was -54%. 5 out of 16 of his recommendations had a positive return during the year. Such results are significant considerable misses in a strong bull market.:tongue:

    JL ranks as 3477 out of 3498 ranked analysts based on their performance.
     
  11. EarlyAdopter

    EarlyAdopter Active Member

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    Ouch, that's pretty sad. So the contrarian play - do the opposite of everything this guy says - is the winning play.
     
  12. MikeC

    MikeC Active Member

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    Wow, I think it takes a lot of effort to be that bad at your job. Simple incompetence can only get you so far.
     
  13. Auzie

    Auzie Tree Hugger Member

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    Dougherty & Co sets $325 pt for TSLA

    Tesla Motors PT set at $325 by Dougherty & Co

    Analysts issued a note on TSLA on Friday, with a 'buy' rating and a potential upside of approx. 67%.

    Some other recent analysts targets:

    Baird $275 buy note posted on Thursday, 26.2.2015
    Barclays $190 hold note posted on Monday, 23.2.2015
    Vetr $265.93 buy note posted on Monday, 23.2.2015
    BOA $65 sell note posted on Monday, 23.2.2015

    Consensus $261.72 buy 25 analysts
     
  14. Auzie

    Auzie Tree Hugger Member

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    Credit Suisse analyst Dan Galves issued a bullish note on Tesla

    Outperform @290

    DG.JPG






    Andrea James from D&C issued a note on Tesla 3 days ago, bullish rating of $325

    AJ.JPG

     
  15. TSLAopt

    TSLAopt Active Member

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    New note from Stifel. After a recent factory tour they reiterate their 400 Price Target. juicy details about paint shop improvements and aluminum casting...unfortunately these notes dont seem to move the stock up short term anymore, but they do instill more confidence for long term investors holding on through this storm of FUD

    --------------------

    Stifel is updating estimates on Tesla Motors (Nasdaq: TSLA) following a recent factory tour. The firm reiterates its Buy rating and $400 price target on Tesla.


    Analyst James Albertine noted that he cannot emphasize how fast production capacity is growing. He sees Tesla producing 1,000 units per week with manufacturing efficiencies driving battery costs down five to 10 percent, and has significant "wood-to-chop" across the production spectrum, not the least of which includes a new paint facility, which is expected to come online this Summer.


    Albertnine noted, Using paint as a proxy for further improvements, TSLA currently spends roughly 16 hours to achieve an "Aston Martin-quality" paint finish for its Model S (a higher rating relative to most mass-market German luxury brands). Once the new facility comes online, TSLA can (a) further improve the quality of its paint finish while (b) reducing production time to roughly 5 hours.


    Albertine also touches on another investor concern: cash burn. TSLA is revolutionizing the manufacturing process, which considering the components/structures/systems that TSLA designs, manufactures, assembles, and services in-house, require as CEO Elon Musk put it in management's 4Q14 conference call "staggering amounts of investment." Using the example of aluminum castings, TSLA took the opportunity several years ago to acquire a primary supplier. Having experienced yields as low as 10 percent (only 1 in 10 parts met TSLA standards for production), TSLA is now generating yields closer to 95 percent by controlling the process in-house. That said, beyond paint and aluminum castings we believe TSLA is making investments to reduce battery cell production time that can continue to scale with the opening of the Gigafactory in the next 1-2 years, not to mention investments in infrastructure and distribution, which help to promote the relative advantages of electric-powered vs. gasoline-powered vehicles globally the analyst said.


    Albertine lowers Q415 Model X delivery estimates from 9,000 down to 4,500 units and blended gross margin from 30.5 percent to 28 percent. The analyst noted that the new estimates aren't derived from management commentary as the firm hasn't received any new information in that regard. Albertine simply sees Tesla management taking a more prudent approach to the launch of the Model X.


    For an analyst ratings summary and ratings history on Tesla Motors click here. For more ratings news on Tesla Motors click here.


    Tesla Motors closed at $190.88 yesterday.

    ---------------------------



    would be nice to see if we could get the infamous Lovallo to at least take a tour...I would think he should for his own due diligence if he's going to be downgrading the stock every quarter
     
  16. AlMc

    AlMc 'Senior Moments' member

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    Thank you. It is always good to see positive news confirming my thoughts that over the long haul (hopefully by second half of 2015) that we will get through all the 'negative news/growing pains/FUD' that has been rampant these last few weeks/months. On a personal level it gives me hope that my 2017LEAPS may go 'green' as they were only a few short weeks ago.:wink:
     
  17. TSLAopt

    TSLAopt Active Member

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    Yes, this year seems like a gamble in terms of when sentiment will change. im thinking about exchanging my 2016 250s for 2017 310s
     
  18. v12 to 12v

    v12 to 12v Active Member

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    I am not finding any news of this at all in the common news streams. Will it be ignored by bloggers and reporters like the other previous estimates that were not negative?
     
  19. Auzie

    Auzie Tree Hugger Member

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    Adam Jonas super bullish

    Morgan Stanley: Tesla's price could realistically multiply by 10:love:

    AJ.JPG

    AJ rightfully points out that the investment in Tesla is a rare opportunity. The potential reward far outweighs the risks, at least at this stage, as so many risky business hurdles are already behind.

    The hurdles ahead are in pacing up the sales and supply chain. I would be surprised if there were no hiccups ahead. The nature of these hiccups is that they fall in the category of business as usual, whilst the hiccups in the earlier stages were more deadly.
     
  20. brianman

    brianman Burrito Founder

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    Hm. I wouldn't have pegged it anywhere near that high.
     

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