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I imagine Lovallo wants to assure his continued good relations with GM's Mary Barra and Ford's Mark Fields, so they won't close their information pipelines to him the way Elon might have. If not that, Elon may have upset him in some other manner.
Lovallo analyzes an otherwise established industry in which the fundamental evaluation methodology he learned in college had been somewhat suitable. The skills needed to evaluate the potential of a disruptive innovator are apparently beyond him.
Meanwhile, Lovallo may want to prove to clients, who might be upset that he caused them to miss the boat on TSLA, that he was right all along. So he keeps pounding away.
Thanks for posting that link Curt that was quite interesting. JL valued Tesla in 2013 at $30 when sp was $34, and now in 2015 at $65 when sp is where it is. It seems that all the business advancements in the last couple of years: infrastructure, capacity upgrade, expansion to different markets, great sales, model D and other car upgrades, all the decreased business risk, it does not seem to have much value to JL.
Some people just keep digging their own hole.
ev-enthusiast
Active Member
Just to clarify, insider trading is a loaded term, implying that a reason for a particular transaction is non-public information available to an insider. This particular transaction, however, according to the footnote 1, is part of a plan of exercising options set up in advance, back in February of this year. So this transaction is more of an income complementing type, rather than insider trading. The footnote states the following:
| 1. The stock option exercise and sale reported on this Form 4 were effected pursuant to a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan adopted by the reporting person on February 23, 2015. |
I did not see this anywhere, so here it is:
Andrea James, an analyst with Dougherty & Co., estimates that Tesla's storage business could be worth as much as $70 to Tesla's sp. Tesla has been able to install more than 100 projects, without anyone noticing.
Full article
These analysts are so divergent
Andrea James, an analyst with Dougherty & Co., estimates that Tesla's storage business could be worth as much as $70 to Tesla's sp. Tesla has been able to install more than 100 projects, without anyone noticing.
Full article
These analysts are so divergent
Last edited:
Global Equities commentary on Tesla's Residential Energy Storage Opportunity
Global Equities analyst Trip Chowdhry:
Tesla's residential energy storage opportunity could be $200 billion globally
Highlights
TC expects 10kWh and 15kWh batteries, priced between $10k to $15k
Downpayment $1.5k to $2.5k, monthly payments $15 to $25, for 20 yrs
Targeted customers are the households highly dependant on internet with broadband connection and multiple devices
TC estimates total market worldwide to be $200 billion
Global Equities analyst Trip Chowdhry:
Tesla's residential energy storage opportunity could be $200 billion globally
Highlights
TC expects 10kWh and 15kWh batteries, priced between $10k to $15k
Downpayment $1.5k to $2.5k, monthly payments $15 to $25, for 20 yrs
Targeted customers are the households highly dependant on internet with broadband connection and multiple devices
TC estimates total market worldwide to be $200 billion
Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
From what I can see only one is diverging
Reminds me of a good joke:
A man is driving along the highway with his wife. She turns on the radio. Suddenly the music stops due to an emergency announcement: "Motorists beware! There is a car driving in the wrong direction on the freeway at full speed!". The man turns to his wife and says: "Pfft! A car??? Right now there's at least 10 cars going the wrong way!"
From what I can see only one is diverging
Reminds me of a good joke:
A man is driving along the highway with his wife. She turns on the radio. Suddenly the music stops due to an emergency announcement: "Motorists beware! There is a car driving in the wrong direction on the freeway at full speed!". The man turns to his wife and says: "Pfft! A car??? Right now there's at least 10 cars going the wrong way!"
Well I can say I've been there (one-way street) done that (drove in the wrong direction) :biggrin: and survived to tell the tale
It took some swerving and advanced skills driving to survive
Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
I'm glad you lived!
My point (as I'm sure you gather) was that when your world view is the direct opposite of everyone else's you need to consider the possibility that you are wrong, since that's the more plausible explanation than that everyone else is wrong. Allthough sometimes everyone else is wrong (Copernicus comes to mind, Einstein initally, etc. Although I doubt that history will recognize John Lovallo as a financial analyst genious one must always be a bit humble).
Gerasimental
Member
Perhaps more relevantly, those analysts that saw that the market was behaving incredibly irrationally and was bound to collapse in the late 2000s. They were also driving the 'wrong' way up a one-way street and were roundly derided.
Not that I think Lovallo is TSLA's equivalent, but just saying that arguing against a very strong consensus doesn't make you wrong.
Being glaringly, glaringly, obviously wrong about Tesla, OTOH, does make you wrong. I look forward to seeing how Lovallo prices TSLA if the April 30 announcement puts some concrete numbers on stationary storage.
Very good point...someone should email him this point and try to engage with him 'off the record' on why he refuses to see it the way other analysts do...his email address can't be that hard to guess.
I wonder how old he is...my guess is that he must be not too far from retiring and that he will take this major TSLA pricing error with him to his retirement grave....in the meantime, whenever there is a temporary correction in TSLA stock price (like most of the past 6 months) then he gets his day in the sun of being the most bearish analyst out there.
That is so true. It takes a strong conviction to hold a position against the prevailing view.
Few years ago I was not really following analysts views on TSLA, but my bet is that the majority had a consensus of TSLA being a poor investment choice. I am very curious if there were any analysts that were bullish on TSLA prior to 2013.
In Lovallo's case, and similarly many other vocal public TSLA bears, they most likely fear having to publicly acknowledge the error of their TSLA position. Their professional identity will suffer a huge blow with such public admission. If Lovallo acknowledges he was wrong, the game may be over for him.
Auzie, I went to Andrea James YouTube channel when looking into investing in this crazy "Tesla" thingy. Anyway I watched every one of her interviews. Each interview the host would put her up against some crazy bear, or car analyst and each time she proved to be correct. Kind of funny, If everyone just listened to Andrea they would have fared very well !:smile:
Jonathan Hewitt
Active Member
The BoFA PT of $65 looks even more silly when Andrea is predicting up to $70/share and Deutsche Bank $100/share JUST from energy storage solutions...
Bank of America Merrill Lynch and presumably their auto analyst John Lovallo began this month by desperately spreading more of the anti-Tesla muck that their investors have had to endure since 26 months ago when the stock was in the thirties. Now they're closing out the month with even more FUD: BAML on TSLA
Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
Again, without beating a dead horse: What is the job that John Lovallo is tasked with from his employer - what is the service he should provide to the customers of BoA/Merril Lynch?
Is it to:
A) Give an opinon on what he feels is a fair valuation of TSLA a year from now (and presumably also now)
or
B) Give an opinion on at what price points he believes the stock market will value TSLA one year from now?
I know these to thing are interrelated partly, but I really wonder what an analysts job really is?
Is it to:
A) Give an opinon on what he feels is a fair valuation of TSLA a year from now (and presumably also now)
or
B) Give an opinion on at what price points he believes the stock market will value TSLA one year from now?
I know these to thing are interrelated partly, but I really wonder what an analysts job really is?
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