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Anderman predicts Model 3 will cost between $50k-$80k, far above Tesla estimated $35k

Discussion in 'Model 3' started by yobigd20, Sep 17, 2014.

  1. yobigd20

    yobigd20 Well-Known Member

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    the report is written by battery skeptic Menahem Anderman, organizer of the Advanced Automotive Batteries Conference for the last 20 years.

    "Anderman states that there is a high probability that the "low-cost" Tesla model will be priced in excess of $50,000. He said that in the most probable scenario, the car will be priced somewhere in the range of $50,000 to $80,000."

    sources:
    Jalopnik Is the Tesla Model 3 actually going to cost $50-$80k?

    refers to

    Tesla Battery Cost: New Report Suggests Model 3 To Cost $50K Or More

    which links Anderson's report:

    The Tesla Battery Report 2014 - Overview - Advanced Automotive Batteries
    http://advancedautobat.com/industry-reports/2014-Tesla-report/Tesla-Battery-Report-Brochure.pdf

    "Dr. Anderman’s insightful report analyzes Tesla’s success to date and forecasts the impact it will have on automakers, battery producers, and the future of the EV industry."

    "In the most likely scenario, Anderman writes, 'the price of the 2017 new model will be in the range of $50k-80k.'"

    I dont have access to the report itself, as it costs $2800, so I don't know what data points he is using to conclude a price range of $50k-$80k. (man, maybe I should quit my job and start writing battery reports, lol). but I guess the gist of it is that he thinks reaching a $35k is virtually impossible. :( I hope Elon proves this guy way wrong!

    another web story about it now:
    Tesla Motors Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA) News Analysis: Tesla Motors’ Model 3 Might Set You Back $50,000
     
  2. Zythryn

    Zythryn MS 70D, MX 90D

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    That is a lot more than a penny a click:scared:
     
  3. Skotty

    Skotty 2014 Model S P85

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    I can already forecast the end result of this. The Model 3 will have a base price starting in the mid to high 30's for a smaller battery version (still 200+ miles) and no options. But there may very well be a bigger battery option that pushes the price into the 40's, then add a few options and it goes over 50K. Most test mules will be the over 50K variety. Anderman will claim he was correct because the typical car will be over 50K, while others will claim he was wrong because the base model starts in the 30's. Everyone claims to have been correct. No one admits to being wrong. The end.
     
    • Like x 1
  4. Kevin Harney

    Kevin Harney Active Member

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    Well in his partial defense he is talking about the 2017 prices and Elon - to my best recollection - was talking about today's dollars. I am expecting they will start about $40K and option out about $90K in 2017 or 2018.
     
  5. art

    art Member

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    will the next cell thats 10 % bigger, be the same price as the old one, and will it be 14 to 28% better than the old one plus the 10 %? figuring 7% per year.
     
  6. Vger

    Vger Active Member

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    Sure there will be versions of the Model 3 that go up to 50K, but that is not Anderman's mistaken point. He seems to be claiming that Tesla will fail completely at making the 30+% cost reductions in the batteries they have claimed. Based on the tone in Elon's and JB's voices on the last quarterly conference call, I would not bet against them (pretty much never would!).

    Elon seems to be, shall we say, supremely confident that a 30% cost reduction is within two years, and a 50+% cost reduction (to ~$100/kWh) is within sight in 5-7 years.
     
  7. mknox

    mknox Well-Known Member

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    I wonder if Tesla's Model 3 pricing is "after incentives" like it was for the initial sub-$50k Model S when it came out? Those incentives could very well start disappearing.
     
  8. Kevin Harney

    Kevin Harney Active Member

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    No Elon was clear that it was NOT including any incentives.
     
  9. ckessel

    ckessel Active Member

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    Yep, exactly this.


    $40k for the "no one will actually buy this" model. $50k for a reasonable base model. $80k for a super maxed out performance model.
     
  10. FredTMC

    FredTMC Model S VIN #4925

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    Yes, and all the initial Model 3 cars sold (signature series) will be max out versions. Following the Model S roll-out, the largest battery version of the car will be delivered (with some options mandatory). Then finally, the base model will be delivered. The base model will of course have the longest delivery wait times… maybe as long as 6mo-12mo after initial Model 3 deliveries commence.
     
  11. yobigd20

    yobigd20 Well-Known Member

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    I don't think Tesla will make any $80k versions of the Model 3. I remember Elon saying that the Model 3 will be less luxurious than the Model S for several reasons. Obviously to cut costs for one. But also to keep a clear distinction between the two models. If you want performance and luxury, buy the Model S. If you want 'economy' (for lack of a better terminology), buy the Model 3. I still expect the Model 3 to have a decent punch to it just because it'll still have the instantaneous power and torque effect of electric vehicles, but I seriously doubt you'll have a performance Model 3 version and it'll lack some of the expensive features of the MS (like no rear facing seats, no air suspension, no 21" tires, no performance inverter, no "plus" suspension options). I can't see anything substantial adding to the cost of the base price of Model 3 except for maybe a bigger battery pack and a subset of the Model S tech package. Again, Elon said that the more expensive luxury options will stay with the Model S & X. You won't find them in the Model 3. If you want those, get the Model S. I expect the price of the Model 3 to vary between $35k base price and $50k maxed out. that $50k will be made up of the base price plus maybe $10k for bigger battery pack and ~$5k in options (basic options like parking sensors, etc).
     
  12. ckessel

    ckessel Active Member

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    I was mostly going from the 60k->120k gap that exists with the S to extrapolate the 40k->80k. Maybe 70k at the higher end since bumps from the battery cost won't be quite as harsh in the 3.

    I think the 3 will, at the high end, have the same luxuries as the S or X. The market will require it. The 3 is a smaller car, but it's still a premium car to compete with the smaller BMWs and those have lots of luxury buy up options. The size of the 3 is really the car I wanted. The S is quick for it's size, but in smaller streets and tight parking lots it's like trying to pilot a small cruise ship.
     
  13. richkae

    richkae VIN587

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    I think that would be a huge mistake.
    The demand for the performance Model 3 will be huge. The demand for a good EV that is physically smaller than the Model S will be huge.
    There is nothing wrong with selling $80K versions of the Model 3 with gobs of performance, even luxury features - just smaller than the Model S.
     
  14. ItsNotAboutTheMoney

    ItsNotAboutTheMoney Active Member

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    Yes: mid-size and smaller is where the real action is. They certainly aren't going to get lots of sales in Japan of the full-size car.

    Elon Musk has implied mirroring the wide range of the 3 series.

    I would expect that the Model S/X will be the premium, bleeding edge platform that gets the cool toys first.

    - $100 x 60 (reduce battery price by $100)
    - $100 x 75 (reduce power of base model to 150kW from 225kW on the S60: $100/kW stated as near future by JB Straubel at the storage symposium)
    = - $13,500

    That would be $56,500; without capacity reduction, with a significant but not completely insane battery price reduction.

    Hoping for base+cold weather <= $40k.
     
  15. ecarfan

    ecarfan Well-Known Member

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    Anderman predicts Model 3 will cost between $50k-$80k, far above Tesla estima...

    Agreed. Of course the 3 will have a high power version and lots of options that will being its price up into S territory: that's where the higher margins are and there will be lots of buyers who want a smaller vehicle but with all the performance and cool features that a loaded S has!

    Yes many people will buy the base 3 because it will be a great car with 200 miles of range and they can afford it. But even more will add options and performance that they can afford.

    The 3 is going to massively outsell the S/X and will be able to meet Elon's promised price target in 2017 dollars. Tesla now has the experience and resources to pull it off.

    A few decades from now people will look back and credit Elon with launching the electric car revolution and upending the car industry with the Model 3.
     
  16. vinnie97

    vinnie97 Member

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    I would just like an electric car with decent range that I can afford. I suspect there are many more like me. Do you think the pool to which I belong is smaller than the pool that wants a decked out $50k+ electric vehicle. I find that hard to believe.
     
  17. ecarfan

    ecarfan Well-Known Member

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    Anderman predicts Model 3 will cost between $50k-$80k, far above Tesla estima...

    The sales pattern of the S shows that few people bought the base price model, which of course is still a very expensive car at $70k (before any credits or rebates). I think the average S price is over $88K.

    I suspect the 3 will be similar: the majority of sales will be well over the price of the base model, which will be well above the average US new car price. In part that will be because initially Tesla will only sell special "Signature" editions which will have additional options and be priced higher than the base model, just as they did with the S, and in part because people who can afford to pay at least $35K for the base 3 will find they want to stretch their financial resources to get a 3 with the options they want, just like many buyers have been doing with the S.

    There is no direct Model S competitor so if you want that type of car you have no where else to go. I think even by 2017 there will be no direct Model 3 competitor when it launches, and that will drive the buying behavior I have just described.

    That is not to say that the market size for low priced vehicles is smaller than the market size for expensive vehicles. Of course that is not the case.
     
  18. tomas

    tomas Traded in 9 rep bars for M3, used to be somebody!

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    I've got a bargain for you. If you send me just $1400 via paypal, I will send you my scenario of the price for the Model 3, as well as a full breakdown of the facts and analysis behind it.

    Buy today, and I'll also include the price for the Model X.

    Plus, today only, a free Tesla hat. Absolutely free!
     
  19. richkae

    richkae VIN587

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    My gut feeling ( that I don't have data to back up ) is that a car with a base price of $70K ends up with a lot more expensive options than a car with a $35K base price. Even percentage wise.

    Another factor is this: there is only ONE kind of car that serves the market of people looking for a full featured ( 200+ mile ) EV. The Model S. It serves the entire market from $70K to infinity. If you have infinity dollars, you still buy a Model S, you just load it with everything. That brings the average up. If you have less than $70K dollars ( via financing, whatever ) you don't get one.

    When the Model 3 comes out there will be 2 price segment choices that serve the market for people who want a 200+ mile EV. The Model 3. And the Models S&X.
    The S&X will continue to capture most of the people who wanted to spend a lot of money - only losing some to the Model 3 who really wanted a smaller car.
     
  20. Model 3

    Model 3 Active Member

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    No. A year or two ago he was talking about $30k "today's dollars", and later clarified this to be $35k without that disclaimer and without tax-credit.

    So base price in 2017 will be close to $35k, and (my estimate) with all options up to near the double (around $60-70k).
     

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