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Anderman predicts Model 3 will cost between $50k-$80k, far above Tesla estimated $35k

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Tesla Motors is not a luxury car company. BMW, Mercedes-Benz, Cadillac, AUDI, Acura, Infiniti, Lexus... All of those are marketed as luxury marques. In fact, if you go to their websites, almost every single traditional automobile manufacturer from Chevrolet to Ford, Honda to Toyota, or Hyundai to Kia posts the word 'luxury' all over the place. Stop by the Tesla Motors website and it doesn't appear there at all. Not in their brochures, not in their e-mails, not in their press releases, not on twitter, or YouTube, or Facebook, or Veoh, or Vimeo... Tesla Motors sells premium electric cars that are currently cost a lot to buy, are fun to drive, and don't burn any gas. The Model S and Model X are expensive, performance, economy cars. The Tesla Model ≡ will be an affordable, performance, economy car series.



Elon's strategy of opening up patents helps them to get there. Clearly, that is the main reason he did it. He NEEDS Toyota, GM, Ford, Mercedes, BMW to get on board as they will be the ones to lower cost through their ability to crank up volume based on their size, engineering size and wealth.

No. The reason why Elon Musk opened up the patents held by Tesla Motors is that he realized the traditional automobile manufacturers had no interest whatsoever in pursuing electric cars in a manner that was not limited, gimped, or just plain stupid. He got the patents to begin with because he was afraid larger companies would attempt to steal the market from under them. He now realizes they had no intention of doing that at all. They believed their own negative propaganda, that Tesla was just angling to get themselves bought pit by a larger entity, in order to 'save' the company, and get a payday for its principles. They never once believed that Elon was being honest and sincere in his quest to build affordable, long range electric cars that were compelling.

Opening the patents was not done for the sake of the 'big boys'. It was done in order to foster the efforts of smaller, fledgling EV companies. It was to make it so that they no longer have to reinvent the wheel just to avoid being sued by Tesla Motors. As long as they operate in good faith, with an intention to make fully electric cars with the technology, instead of hybrids, and strive to release vehicles with over 200 miles of range, they have nothing to fear. Tesla Motors finally realized that trying to get the traditional automobile manufacturers to switch to electric drive was like going to a major livery stable company in the late 19th century and trying to get them to invest in the horseless carriage. It is better to set up a separate, parallel electric vehicle industry that usurps the existing ICE automotive industry.



At 500,000 a year, I also wonder if Tesla will start using the franchise model.
Tesla Motors will never used 'independent franchised dealerships'. For now, while they are still fighting for the right to open up Service Centers, Tesla Stores, and install Superchargers nationwide, they must at least make it seem as if the door is open to the possibility of using the traditional dealership model. In reality, they will never have to do so.

Or maybe Tesla manages to scale up their staff to handle a 10x increase in stores/service centers in a few years?
That would be the ticket.



If the current cost of batteries for Tesla Motors is ~$200 per kWh today... Then the batteries from the Gigafactory, yielding a 30% cost improvement from the outset, will be ~$140 per kWh... THREE YEARS FROM NOW. That beats the hell out of the skeptical ANALysts' projection of $167 per kWh in ten years. Even if Tesla's price for batteries is currently as much as ~$238 per kWh, they will beat that 'report' on day one of the Gigafactory by being under the $167 per kWh mark that guy predicted for circa 2025.

Thus, a 60 kWh battery pack in a $34,900 vehicle would represent roughly 24% of its cost. I believe Tesla Motors will do better than that. And as the Gigafactory ramps up production, it will only improve over time, and well ahead of skeptical observations and prognostications. Wouldn't it be nice if the car debuted with a 100 kWh battery pack standard at $34,900 with Supercharging included in a car every bit as well appointed as a Lexus ES?

So why was this article written? Oh, yeah... Click bait.
 
I would have to disagree with the article of a $50-$80K Model 3.

*Tesla will ditch the pano roof for a more conventional moon roof.
*The battery will be smaller than the S batt pack.
*The steel body is cheaper than that of the "S".
* The battery will be produced by TM.
* Development cost will be lower because TM will have streamline all processes to build car.
* Parts suppliers may lower prices due to volume purchasing.

A higher priced Model 3 will come with extra features requested by a customer.
 
I think Elon is going to do what he said all along: price the Model E (er, Model 3) along the same lines as the 3-series (well, now 3/4-series) BMWs.

That's typically been $35-48K although that may have gone up in recent years to $40-55K. By the time we hit 2017, it could very well be low 40's to 60K.

BMW has certainly proven that you can get years and years of growth out of a 3-series, 5-series and a few other models here and there.

(edit to correct Model E/3 typo)

The M3 averages almost 70K. The Model S P85+ competes with the M5 in price, so I don't see why Tesla wouldn't release a high performance version of the Model 3 to compete with the M3.
 
the report is written by battery skeptic Menahem Anderman, organizer of the Advanced Automotive Batteries Conference for the last 20 years.
....
"In the most likely scenario, Anderman writes, 'the price of the 2017 new model will be in the range of $50k-80k.'"

What amazes is not the price estimate (Anderman's range is a bit too high in my opinion, the base price is probably achievable at $40-45k) but the 2017 shipment date in his likely scenario.

I don't think Tesla can ship the Model 3 in volumes in 2017.

My current estimate is 2018 (or even later, 2018 is probably quite optimistic) for volume shipments.

I have been saying that for some time, same for the Model X delays that have been recently confirmed.

My current estimates are:

- Model X: Q4 2015 and 2016 for global volume shipments. Q3 2015 will probably be only a few Signature deliveries.

- Model 3: 2018 in an optimistic scenario (and later for global volume shipments, could well slip into 2019-2020).

I would like to hear from others about their estimates for Model 3 volume shipments, i.e. not a few first Signature deliveries, but real volume shipments to customers.
 
Tesla's early cars (by this I mean the S, X and Model 3) compete with all cars - and themselves.

The S was so compelling that I (former owner of a Honda Civic) decided to get one instead of a BMW 328.

It's not just competing with cars that are priced similarly.

Then, once the X comes out, it will be the Model S' worst enemy, as the X will be the only other car that future buyers of the Model S might consider as a viable alternative... it'll really eat into Model S sales. Tesla won't mind :)

Once the Model 3 comes out, it will eat into sales of the S+X because people who would ordinarily be making a big financial stretch to get the S or X will now be able to get the Model 3.

The only group of cars that will truly suffer will be the conventional oil-burning car segment... since they don't offer a compelling alternative.
 
Once the Model 3 comes out, it will eat into sales of the S+X because people who would ordinarily be making a big financial stretch to get the S or X will now be able to get the Model 3.

The only group of cars that will truly suffer will be the conventional oil-burning car segment... since they don't offer a compelling alternative.

But one main differentiator (Tesla being perceived as an EV pioneer by mass-market car buyers) is whether Tesla can really release a mass-market EV with 150-200 miles of range ahead of the competition.

That is very much in doubt in my opinion given the latest delays with the Model X etc.

As I outlined before, I don't think the Model 3 will ship in volume before 2018, maybe even later than that (regardless whether the Gigafactory produces first cell test batches by 2016 already).

If so, other traditional car brands (namely Nissan, GM, VW or BMW) may launch similar vehicles at $30-50k and the same range at the same time or even before.

Launching the Model X back in 2013 (or the Model 3 in 2016) would make a difference in public perception (again, mass-market car buyer perception, not among early adopters or "EV fans").

I also think other companies such as Nissan can ramp their future EV vehicles (such as the Leaf 2.0) faster than Tesla after the production start date.


PS: I would like to hear from others about their time estimates when the first Model 3 cars ship to customers in volume production.
 
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And they will get batteries from who exactly?

In the case of Nissan either from AESC (current JV) or a new joint-venture in existing Nissan plants (likely with LG Chem) or from a supplier (again likely coming from LG Chem). Same for GM and others (most likely LG), BMW is the exception to the rule with Samsung SDI. LG Chem has announced these batteries for 2016-2017 for mass-market priced cars: LG Chem To Supply 200 Mile Batteries In 2016; But To Whom?

Does anyone have a time estimate for Model 3 shipping?
 
Good. Now you go find out their production capacity.

We will see when they ship their cars, Nissan for example already has lots of dark capacity in its exisiting three battery plants for the LEAF.

The problem is shipping in the first place (and at what price). Hence the topic of this thread. So I ask my question for a last time for anyone interested:

When do you think will the Model 3 (or the first Model 3 variant, if the Model 3 is a platform for more than one carmodel) ship in volume and at what base price (without any government incentives, the "pure" base price)?

My current estimates are: 2018 at the earliest (likely towards end of 2018 or even later) and $40-45k base price.
 
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We will see when they ship their cars,

We can already see there is not enough capacity in whole world for:

I also think other companies such as Nissan can ramp their future EV vehicles (such as the Leaf 2.0) faster than Tesla after the production start date.
to come true.

Not without their own new 'gigafactories'. Whole LGChem together may be capable of producing 20% of tesla's planned production.
All Nissan's battery plants when finnaly up to 100% speed may be capable of producing enough cells for some 30k 200m cars annually.

Tesla is shooting for six figures production of 200+ mile EVs. The only ways someone may surpass them is:
a) tesla fails achieving their stated goals
OR
b) others build their ultrabig factories ultrafast

I'll gladly bet my money on this.
 
I don't think Tesla can ship the Model 3 in volumes in 2017.
...
... same for the Model X delays that have been recently confirmed.

Just remember one little thing:

Model X is not critical for Tesla's success. Model 3 is.

What the result of one year delay in Model X? Tesla sells more Model S.
What the result of one year delay of Model 3? Tesla may not be able to pay the loans it has taken to build the GF.

So yes, the can take the luxury to delay Model X until Tesla think it's "ready", but they can not allow them self to delay the Model 3 that long. The latest news is that the GF may start to produce batteries in 2016. We may see the first signatures late 2016. Production will start at the latest in Q2 2017. Mass-production latest in Q3 same year. Europe deliveries around Christmas 2017. Looking forward to a nice Christmas present that year ;)
 
What amazes is not the price estimate (Anderman's range is a bit too high in my opinion, the base price is probably achievable at $40-45k) but the 2017 shipment date in his likely scenario.

I don't think Tesla can ship the Model 3 in volumes in 2017.

My current estimate is 2018 (or even later, 2018 is probably quite optimistic) for volume shipments.

I have been saying that for some time, same for the Model X delays that have been recently confirmed.

My current estimates are:

- Model X: Q4 2015 and 2016 for global volume shipments. Q3 2015 will probably be only a few Signature deliveries.

- Model 3: 2018 in an optimistic scenario (and later for global volume shipments, could well slip into 2019-2020).

I would like to hear from others about their estimates for Model 3 volume shipments, i.e. not a few first Signature deliveries, but real volume shipments to customers.

I think 2018 is quite possible. I do think they'll work hard to get it online as quickly as possible, but getting the Model 3 out is a big lift, and I can easily see it slipping to '18.

The elephant in the room, in my mind, is what happens with Model S 2.0. By 2018, it will be 6 years old and presumably getting close to a refresh/redesign.

Tesla is going to have to get to the point eventually where they can design two (or more) platforms simultaneously. When is that jump going to happen? Will we see that before or after the 3? I suspect after, but that might mean the Model S has to soldier on to 2020 or later.