Anderman predicts Model 3 will cost between $50k-$80k, far above Tesla estimated $35k

[Trev Page]

Engineering on Model X is done, they're in the process of setting up volume manufacturing and final testing. Engineers are all hands on deck designing Model 3 at the moment. I hope they can meet their 2017 shipment date as long as Elon doesn't nitpick quite as much as he did for Model X. They've stated recently that they need to be a little less perfectionists.

 

[aronth5]

Engineering on Model X is done, they're in the process of setting up volume manufacturing and final testing. Engineers are all hands on deck designing Model 3 at the moment. I hope they can meet their 2017 shipment date as long as Elon doesn't nitpick quite as much as he did for Model X. They've stated recently that they need to be a little less perfectionists.

I would agree with a statement that many or maybe even most engineers are working on the Model 3 but certainly not all. With the constant emphasis by Elon on quality improvement who do you think works on that?

 

[ryanjm]

Engineering on Model X is done, they're in the process of setting up volume manufacturing and final testing. Engineers are all hands on deck designing Model 3 at the moment. I hope they can meet their 2017 shipment date as long as Elon doesn't nitpick quite as much as he did for Model X. They've stated recently that they need to be a little less perfectionists.

Actually in my opinion it's CRUCIAL that Elon be very hands-on and nitpicky with Model 3, because the 3 is the key to the entire company's longevity. If it fails, has significant issues, or doesn't push the envelope the way the S has and the way that Elon will fight for, then Tesla fails so close to the completion of Elon's long-stated three-step master plan.

I hope Elon devotes even more of his time to the 3 than he has for either the S or the X.

 

[Model 3]

I hope Elon devotes even more of his time to the 3 than he has for either the S or the X.

Yes, but let's hope he starts this earlier in the process this time

 

[JohnQ]

Yes, but let's hope he starts this earlier in the process this time

He needs to be reined in. Having lofty expectations is good but Tesla needs to produce the Model 3 in volume, at a reasonable price with high quality. Cool engineering may need to be sacrificed on the altar of manufacturing repeatability.

 

[tftf]

Having lofty expectations is good but Tesla needs to produce the Model 3 in volume, at a reasonable price with high quality. Cool engineering may need to be sacrificed on the altar of manufacturing repeatability.

That's why I think the Model 3 will be even more delayed than the X, because the X can share quite a number of technical parts with the Model S platform, especially the D. A lot of the Model 3 design has to start from scratch as Tesla engineers pointed out themselves.

Call me a permabear, but my realistic to skeptic launch estimate would actually by 2019-2020, my 2018 estimate is maybe quite optimistic given the X delays.

On the other hand, battery pricing will be less of an issue in case Tesla has to delay the car so much with falling battery prices and assuming the Gigafactory is complete by the end of 2017 (as per the Yates construction company timesheet submitted to Nevada officials, the final "phase five" is supposed to be completed by end of December 2017).

I therefore think the big issue is not battery pricing (although I agree the $35k base price will be hard to hit) Anderman pointed out, but rather introduction delays - and the established car competition shipping their longer-range, mass-market EVs before Tesla.

 

[ckessel]

the established car competition shipping their longer-range, mass-market EVs before Tesla.

So, it sounds like your belief is that established car companies, who have done very little towards EVs, will be more quick and nimble in designing and producing a car than Tesla? The same companies that haven't yet produced a from scratch EV at all? (I think the LEAF is an exception to the "from scratch"?)

Have I stated that correctly? Isn't that the exact same reasoning that bears have been saying for something like 5 years now?

 

[tftf]

So, it sounds like your belief is that established car companies, who have done very little towards EVs, will be more quick and nimble in designing and producing a car than Tesla? The same companies that haven't yet produced a from scratch EV at all? (I think the LEAF is an exception to the "from scratch"?)

Yes, but that will change in the coming years and the number of shared platforms (see e.g. Kia Soul EV and VW e-Golf and e-Up) will rise and therefore reduce time to market. VW for example has shown how it can integrate EV production into its existing ICE assembly lines with the Golf and the Up.

It will certainly not be all established car companies that will soon produce mass-market, longer range ECs (for example, Toyota, Honda and FCA will not produce EVs with current battery technology unless management changes or legislation forces them do so), but some will arrive with longer-range EVs before Tesla or at the same time in my opinion.

Current estimates:

Before Tesla Model 3:

- Renault / Nissan / Infiniti (certainly Nissan)
- GM
- BYD (probably China only)

Around the same time as Model 3:

- BMW and Mini (depends on progress from Samsung)
- Hyundai and Kia
- Audi/VW (and other VW brands)
- Two additional Asian car brands (can't be named)

 

[JohnQ]

That's why I think the Model 3 will be even more delayed than the X, because the X can share quite a number of technical parts with the Model S platform, especially the D. A lot of the Model 3 design has to start from scratch as Tesla engineers pointed out themselves.

I think you missed my underlying point. It's that the engineering leadership at Tesla will have to be pragmatic to meet the manufacturing requirements for a high volume vehicle. The only question is whether Elon can hold himself back and put the manufacturing process first.

Sure, other car companies can leverage existing platforms. But they're not optimized for an EV powertrain and, as a result, will be less viable. Then you have the battery supply issue. All of these things can be overcome if the companies have the will to do so. So far, the only companies I've seen be serious in this space are BMW and Nissan.

 

[tftf]

All of these things can be overcome if the companies have the will to do so. So far, the only companies I've seen be serious in this space are BMW and Nissan.

Agreed until and including calendar year 2014 (and adding some brands that don't have distribution in the US, such as BYD or Renault). But others wll be moving into the mass-market EV space until 2020.

I would add at least one brand (or rather umbrella brand) in 2015-2016: Volkswagen.

Beyond 2016, there will additional entries as outlined in my prior comment (Ford is kind of a dark horse, I haven't heard much about their mid-term EV plans).

Once these three brands (VW brands, BMW, Nissan and maybe GM post-2016) start moving more volume, others will join and produce more EVs (or PHEVs and cars with range extenders).

In summary, I think the mass-market EV space (at around $30-50k where Model 3 is supposed to be sold) will by quite contested by around 2016-2020 with many offerings and thus competition for Tesla's Model 3.

The main problem for Tesla remains missing the Model 3 introduction date by 2-3 years in my opinion. The car was once supposed to ship in 2016...

 

[ckessel]

Yes, but that will change in the coming years and the number of shared platforms (see e.g. Kia Soul EV and VW e-Golf and e-Up) will rise and therefore reduce time to market. VW for example has shown how it can integrate EV production into its existing ICE assembly lines with the Golf and the Up.

So, pretty crappy EVs built on ICE platforms? That's the established manufacturers product that's suppose to succeed? Until an existing manufacturer actually dedicates a platform as EV from the ground up, the hacked EVs on top of ICE platforms are going to be 2nd rate, poorly sold by dealers, and low-volume.

Of any existing manufacturer, Nissan is the only one that's shown commitment. BMW's i3 is progress...but again, they created it with a gas engine in mind.

Adding another 100 miles of EV range to a hacked ICE doesn't mean it'll sell. It'll sell better than today if the costs stay low, but that's not saying much.

 

[Model 3]

I would add at least one brand (or rather umbrella brand) in 2015-2016: Volkswagen.

Have you read what their public public stated strategy is? They will not build factories to build batteries. They will not make a deal with a battery manufacture to get a stable source. They will "shop" cheap batteries on the marked. If the only serious mass-marked EV manufacturers by then is Tesla and VW, it may work. But if you right, they will have a big problem getting enough batteries. And if they get them, it will not be cheap, the have to outbid the other EV manufacturers.

What Nissan (Nissan, Renault, Infiniti) is talking about now it to get to 150 miles range...

Yes, GM seams to be working on something, and BMW may be serious but I don't know what they will make when. I don't believe they will get it on the road before the Model 3. Yes, it may be a few "dark horses" in China/Asia - especial BYD. But as far as I can see, that's all. VW will 1. still producing low-range eGolf/eUP, or 2. make a small series long-range eGolf at a high price.

So no, I don't believe it will be a lot of competition in this marked by 2017 - or 2019. But I love to be proven wrong on this

The car was once supposed to ship in 2016...

Yes, when the Model X was supposed to ship in 2014. But remember that Tesla now, and more so in 2017, is a more mature and experienced manufacture then it was way back then. We are not talking about it's first "from the ground up" model, and not it's second. I may be a bit optimistic, but tries to be realistic here. And I think 2017 still is a very realistic time-line for the Model 3. Late 2016 may be a bit optimistic

 

[ckessel]

The S concept car debuted in early 2009 and shipped 3.5 years later.
They debuted the concept X in early 2012 and will ship 3.5 years later.

The 3 hasn't yet debuted, but if the previous two announcements are any indication, it'll be over 3 years from then to market. So 2018 seems a likely market date. However, Tesla has more resources at it's disposal than before and more experience with the process, so there's reason to hope it might be 2017. I wouldn't bet on it though.

 

[ZsoZso]

The S concept car debuted in early 2009 and shipped 3.5 years later.
They debuted the concept X in early 2012 and will ship 3.5 years later.

The 3 hasn't yet debuted, but if the previous two announcements are any indication, it'll be over 3 years from then to market. So 2018 seems a likely market date. However, Tesla has more resources at it's disposal than before and more experience with the process, so there's reason to hope it might be 2017. I wouldn't bet on it though.

Very good points. I would not expect to see a concept model announcement of the Model 3 before the X is released, and that is currently projected to be Q3 2015, so we are lucky if we get to see the Model 3 concept by the end of 2015. Which in turn implies a most likely release somewhere in 2019, best case scenario 2018, if they can really speed up the process.

 

[JST]

Very good points. I would not expect to see a concept model announcement of the Model 3 before the X is released, and that is currently projected to be Q3 2015, so we are lucky if we get to see the Model 3 concept by the end of 2015. Which in turn implies a most likely release somewhere in 2019, best case scenario 2018, if they can really speed up the process.

I dunno. It wouldn't surprise me to see an early concept Model 3 early next year, before Model X deliveries start in earnest. I can even imagine them bringing it to NAIAS, if they want to really rock the house.

 

[Model 3]

The S concept car debuted in early 2009 and shipped 3.5 years later.

Correct. With an expected release in 2011 - 2.5 years later.

They debuted the concept X in early 2012 and will ship 3.5 years later.

Correct. With an expected release in 2014 - 2.5 years later.

It wouldn't surprise me to see an early concept Model 3 early next year, before Model X deliveries start in earnest. I can even imagine them bringing it to NAIAS, if they want to really rock the house.

I expect something like that yes

Early 2015 + 2.5 years, and a more experienced manufacturer with more resources?

However, Tesla has more resources at it's disposal than before and more experience with the process,

Exactly

 

[ckessel]

I would not expect to see a concept model announcement of the Model 3 before the X is released

I don't think the two are related. For example, Tesla debuted the X concept early 2012 before the S was released.

I'm expecting the concept sometime during 2015 and my guess is probably earlier than later. Both the S and X were debuted early in the year.

 

[tftf]

Have you read what their public public stated strategy is? They will not build factories to build batteries. They will not make a deal with a battery manufacture to get a stable source. They will "shop" cheap batteries on the marked. If the only serious mass-marked EV manufacturers by then is Tesla and VW, it may work.
(...)
Yes, when the Model X was supposed to ship in 2014. But remember that Tesla now, and more so in 2017, is a more mature and experienced manufacture then it was way back then. We are not talking about it's first "from the ground up" model, and not it's second. I may be a bit optimistic, but tries to be realistic here. And I think 2017 still is a very realistic time-line for the Model 3. Late 2016 may be a bit optimistic

VW will certainly plan for battery supply for all their brands over the next 10-15 years, they want to be the leader in EV and PHEV sales mid-term according to their CEO. I don't know why you wrote they had no deal with suppliers, this is not true:

VW already has contracts with Panasonic and Samsung and now (2014) also with LG Chem:

"Volkswagen has designated LG Chem as one of its key battery-sourcing channels to push its electric car projects," the executive said by telephone on condition of anonymity, citing the sensitivity of the issue. "LG is going to supply battery packs and solutions to the German carmaker."

http://www.electric-vehiclenews.com/2014/08/lg-chem-signs-battery-deal-with.html

See the earlier Samsung SDI deal: Samsung SDI to supply electric vehicle batteries to VW in 2015 | WardsAuto

As for Tesla's timeframes, the Model 3 will need to be redesigned from the ground up (many additional cost constraints compared to Model S and X).
This is not my speculation, the obvious need for re-design and cutting costs to hit the promised $35k base price was confirmed by Tesla executives in Model 3-related interviews:

"I expect there will be very little carry-over. We've got to be cost-effective. We can't use aluminium for all the [small car's] components." This suggests that the Model E will use mostly steel in its make-up, although it will probably use bonding and rivets in its construction."

Tesla promises realistic pricing for new BMW 3-series rival | Autocar

That's why I think we won't see the Model 3 on sale before 2018 in my opinion.

 

[Model 3]

I don't know why you wrote they had no deal with suppliers, this is not true:

That is not was I wrote. I wrote that they will not make a deal to get a stable source of batteries.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/2662215-how-volkswagen-evaluates-batteries-to-compete-with-tesla

Speaking about the philosophy of the multi-layered, multi-vendor, battery supply base matrix, Volkswagen representatives told me that this is deliberate. The company wants to play all the battery vendors out against each other, in order to get the best price, while not having to worry about getting involved with any battery factories of its own.

VW already has contracts with Panasonic and Samsung and now (2014) also with LG Chem:

Just my point. Who of this three will build a new factory to be able to deliver battery cells to VW when they need to ramp up? Panasonic? They are busy ramping up for Tesla. LG? They are busy ramping up for GM and Nissan. Samsung? Maybe? If not anyone else ramp up first...

As for Tesla's timeframes, the Model 3 will need to be redesigned from the ground up (many additional cost constraints compared to Model S and X).

They need to design (not redesign) the Gen-III platform and the Model 3 from the ground up, just as they did with Gen-II and the Model S. Yes I'm very well informed about that they don't plan to use aluminum for all the components of Model 3. If it will be steel instead is still just a guess, but a very likely option. You don't think that they by now have most of the basic platform ready, the layout of the "skateboard", the form/capacity of the battery pack and Model 3 in at least clay? The motors/gears (more or less) is in the D models soon to be delivered.

 

[FluxCap]

Oh good grief, I just found this thread. It's like clockwork -- the stock moves up significantly and the perma-bears come back out to spread FUD by linking to other FUD. Sometimes I wonder if John Petersen is actually someone in this very thread.

Please don't feed the bears / trolls people. They have absolutely no idea how much the Model 3 will cost other than the officially-stated Tesla Motors price of $35k before incentives, no matter how many articles they link to. It's spreading FUD, nothing more.

If the current cost of batteries for Tesla Motors is ~$200 per kWh today... Then the batteries from the Gigafactory, yielding a 30% cost improvement from the outset, will be ~$140 per kWh... THREE YEARS FROM NOW. That beats the hell out of the skeptical ANALysts' projection of $167 per kWh in ten years. Even if Tesla's price for batteries is currently as much as ~$238 per kWh, they will beat that 'report' on day one of the Gigafactory by being under the $167 per kWh mark that guy predicted for circa 2025.

Thus, a 60 kWh battery pack in a $34,900 vehicle would represent roughly 24% of its cost. I believe Tesla Motors will do better than that. And as the Gigafactory ramps up production, it will only improve over time, and well ahead of skeptical observations and prognostications. Wouldn't it be nice if the car debuted with a 100 kWh battery pack standard at $34,900 with Supercharging included in a car every bit as well appointed as a Lexus ES?

So why was this article written? Oh, yeah... Click bait.

Couldn't have said it better myself.