Anderman predicts Model 3 will cost between $50k-$80k, far above Tesla estimated $35k

[tftf]

Oh good grief, I just found this thread. It's like clockwork -- the stock moves up significantly and the perma-bears come back out to spread FUD by linking to other FUD. (...)
Please don't feed the bears / trolls people. They have absolutely no idea how much the Model 3 will cost other than the officially-stated Tesla Motors price of $35k before incentives, no matter how many articles they link to. It's spreading FUD, nothing more.

What about another Model X delay I predicted for quite some time? Also FUD? I guess not, Tesla just confirmed it a few days ago. We will see if Model X will not slip again into Q4 2015 or later (and if Q3 2015 will just be about a few first Signature deliveries).

In case you didn't read all my posts in this thread in detail, my main point was not about Model 3 pricing (I think Anderman's estimates are too high), but rather missed deadlines:

I think Tesla will not be able to ship the Model 3 in volume before 2018 (or even later) given their history of delays.

That can have as big as if not even a bigger impact on car sales and the competitive landscape for Tesla (and TSLA, the stock) in the mass-market EV and PHEV/range-extender segment in my opinion.

In case you believe Tesla has no issues meeting the originally announced Model 3 deadlines (2016-2017*), please post your estimates.

* I'm just using the recently announced dates. The Model 3 car was once even supposed to ship by 2015:

Tesla Says All-Electric 3-Series Competitor Due By 2015

 

[joefee]

Back in the dark ages when I put my deposit on Model S, I was planning for 50K after rebates for a 40 pack. I ended up with a 6 figure Sig Performance! The same thing will happen with the Model 3... starting at 35K but there will be "must have" 80K version!

 

[adiggs]

We will see when they ship their cars, Nissan for example already has lots of dark capacity in its exisiting three battery plants for the LEAF.

The problem is shipping in the first place (and at what price). Hence the topic of this thread. So I ask my question for a last time for anyone interested:

When do you think will the Model 3 (or the first Model 3 variant, if the Model 3 is a platform for more than one carmodel) ship in volume and at what base price (without any government incentives, the "pure" base price)?

My current estimates are: 2018 at the earliest (likely towards end of 2018 or even later) and $40-45k base price.

I expect the same kind of timeline as you for Gen 3 shipments. I do expect the base model 3 to arrive at that $35-40k range. I also expect the first year of shipping cars to almost all be $50k+, and I expect the sustained ASP for Gen 3 to be in the $50k range. Partly because well optioned cars will get production priority, and partly because in the early ramp while production continues to be constrained, Tesla can choose to not make the lower optioned cars available yet (sort of like the early Model S shipments were all 85kwh, and it was only 6-9 months later (as I recall) that the 60kwh car started shipping).

 

[ENZA]

no way to be in 30k range. even if possible, it won't be. lol.

 

[robby]

I have confidence that Tesla will make a base $35k (2014 dollars) car; they've more or less bet the business on it. The harder question is what will be sacrificed for it? Even if COGS for every component drops in price by half, the labor rate has a floor and some things will have to be cut.

My guess is that the sacrifices will be: less volume and hauling capacity due to lower horsepower drivetrain(s) (and consequently no possible third row), smaller screen, shorter prepaid periods for 3G and maps updates, and upsells for niceties like the power liftgate, door handle lighting, etc. Tesla opting for a steel frame is less clear to me than it seems to some others; steel is cheaper but is it so much cheaper that it's more cost effective than using aluminum and being able to have a less powerful battery? It may make sense to have an aluminum frame but use steel for miscellaneous attached parts like the suspension. (Side note: I initially thought Tesla would try to use aluminum for its longevity (which is a big part of a "sustainable" car), but Tesla's Head of Product said they are not trying to change how frequently people buy cars).

 

[sjoshuaj]

Tesla’s Franz von Holzhausen: Mass Market ‘Model E’ scheduled to be shown at Jan. 2015 Detroit Auto Show

Tesla scheduled to be shown at Jan. 2015 Detroit Auto Show, BMW’s i3 design is ‘strange, Ikea-like’ | Electrek

Franz von Holzhausen, "And we are working hard on the “3rd Gen”, the third generation platform".

This statement was made last year.

They are further along than you think. They just haven't shown it to anyone yet.

Tesla's second-quarter earnings call
Elon Musk, "We're not currently showing all our cards."
Elon Musk, "Yeah. I mean another thing, our CapEx and R&D numbers are better than they appear because there are things you don't know about."


Written by:
SETH WEINTRAUB
December 12, 2013 / 11:18 am

 

[aronth5]

It is all about the ASP not whether they can offer a $35k model. I agree with many who believe the ASP will approach $50k. In early 2011 when Tesla discussed pricing for the Model S Elon frequently mentioned you would be able to buy a Model S for $49,900 after the tax credit. http://www.dailytech.com/Teslas+Model+S+Pricing+Set+at+50k+60k+and+70k+after+Tax+Credit/article21080.htm

The $50k number got a fair amount of press but didn't last long and was a bar boned model. What Tesla should have said from the beginning is that the Model 3 will cost half what the Model S goes far. Much safer then having everyone focus on $35k and then having Tesla critics telling everyone Elon lied about the Model 3 pricing. Unfortunately that will happen.

 

[tftf]

Tesla’s Franz von Holzhausen: Mass Market ‘Model E’ scheduled to be shown at Jan. 2015 Detroit Auto Show Tesla scheduled to be shown at Jan. 2015 Detroit Auto Show, BMW’s i3 design is ‘strange, Ikea-like’ | Electrek
Franz von Holzhausen, "And we are working hard on the “3rd Gen”, the third generation platform".
This statement was made last year. They are further along than you think. They just haven't shown it to anyone yet.

Tesla could certainly show a concept of the Model 3 in clay form, as CAD drawing or as a similar mock-up/mule by January 2015 (or later in 2015, but Detroit would of course be a good opportunity).

That however is very different from shipping thousands of cars per month. For example, the Model X was shown back in 2012 and was supposed to ship back in 2013...and other brands have similar issues (the Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV still doesn't ship in NA, it was delayed by two years as well).

The Gigafactory doesn't finish its final construction phase (phase five) before December of 2017. That alone is a strong indicator in my opinion that the Model 3 won't ship in volume before 2018.

 

[Model 3]

The Gigafactory doesn't finish its final construction phase (phase five) before December of 2017. That alone is a strong indicator in my opinion that the Model 3 won't ship in volume before 2018.

The Gigafactory doesn't finish its final construction until about 2020. But its build in modules, and module 1 will be finished in 2016, and start producing batteries for Tesla. Module 2 will probably be finished in 2017.

 

[RobStark]

The Gigafactory doesn't finish its final construction phase (phase five) before December of 2017. That alone is a strong indicator in my opinion that the Model 3 won't ship in volume before 2018.

The GF does not need to produce 35 GW of batteries per year in order for the Model 3 to ship in thousands per month. Maybe 7 GW to ship 100k units per year. Tesla will be importing enough batteries from Japan to manufacture 150k-200k Model S/X per year.

 

[ToddRLockwood]

The outside experts don't know what they don't know. Tesla may not have shown all their cards yet. The company has thrown out a battery cost reduction estimate of 30 percent, but it could be much more, not only through manufacturing efficiency, but perhaps also through better batteries. If this is indeed true, why would Tesla spill the beans so far in advance of the Model III release? The jury is still out on this one.

 

[tftf]

The Gigafactory doesn't finish its final construction until about 2020. But its build in modules, and module 1 will be finished in 2016, and start producing batteries for Tesla. Module 2 will probably be finished in 2017.

My December 2017 date refers to the final work done by the external construction company (Yates). Yes, adding additional production lines within the complex (until full capacity is reached, or for other customers, say batteries for energy storage) may take until 2020 or longer.

The five phases involving Yates:

• Phase 1: Sept. 2014-Sept. 2015


• Phase 2: Dec. 2014-Dec. 2015


• Phase 3: April 2015-May 2016


• Phase 4: May 2015-Dec. 2016


• Phase 5: Aug. 2016-Dec. 2017


If you think 2016 or 2017 first-batch batteries will already end up in volume cars, that predicition is quite optimistic in my opinion. Tesla would also need to add tooling for Model 3 in the CA factory in parallel, incredibly tight deadlines.

 

[yobigd20]

Tesla could certainly show a concept of the Model 3 in clay form, as CAD drawing or as a similar mock-up/mule by January 2015 (or later in 2015, but Detroit would of course be a good opportunity).

The recent Tesla ban in Michigan is so restrictive Tesla is not allowed to sell directly, operate galleries, or pretty sure not even display cars or advertise etc. I think this effectively bans them from the Detroit auto show.

 

[tftf]

The recent Tesla ban in Michigan is so restrictive Tesla is not allowed to sell directly, operate galleries, or pretty sure not even display cars or advertise etc. I think this effectively bans them from the Detroit auto show.

Thanks, I wasn't aware it was that strict. On the other hand, Musk is scheduled as a speaker at the AN World Congress in mid-January in Detroit:

4:55pm
Elon Musk, CEO, Tesla Motors

World Congress -- Automotive News

Maybe a little more nfo about the Model 3 could be revealed there?

 

[JST]

The recent Tesla ban in Michigan is so restrictive Tesla is not allowed to sell directly, operate galleries, or pretty sure not even display cars or advertise etc. I think this effectively bans them from the Detroit auto show.

It could be interpreted that way, but that would be a very aggressive interpretation. I don't think Tesla will be prohibited from participating at NAIAS.

 

[William13]

Tesla will be a no show at NAIAS. Detroit is now the former motor city and has decided to close its eyes to the future.. I doubt Elon will allow an exhibit after the recent underhanded new anti Tesla law.

The $35k has always been the low end starter car. No concerns as Tesla may sell some as loss leaders much as other companies do. The small Model S for $50k was certainly sold at a loss.

The gigafactory is the key to low cost batteries for the next 5-10 years. Then new technologies may prevail.

 

[green1]

I'd love to see them at the auto show, and I'd love to see them run in to legal trouble for it. Not because I want Tesla to run in to legal trouble, but because that part of the law is so blatantly un-constitutional (can we say freedom of speech?) that they would have no trouble striking it down.
Telling them they can't sell somewhere is bad enough, but telling them they can't even talk about their cars in a certain state is so far beyond ridiculous that they really need to just call the bluff (or if not a bluff, have it smacked down HARD in court)

 

[Model 3]

My December 2017 date refers to the final work done by the external construction company (Yates). Yes, adding additional production lines within the complex (until full capacity is reached, or for other customers, say batteries for energy storage) may take until 2020 or longer.

Yes, your right. I was a bit hastig here, and mixed up "final construction" and "fully assembled". Sorry late response.

If you think 2016 or 2017 first-batch batteries will already end up in volume cars, that predicition is quite optimistic in my opinion. Tesla would also need to add tooling for Model 3 in the CA factory in parallel, incredibly tight deadlines.

No, I don't expect the first-batch batteries to end up in volume cars, but not very long after. Depending on when in 2016 the production starts, i do expect them to show up in volume cars in 2016, at least very early 2017.

And yes, Tesla has been clear all the way that it will have to be two path in parallel, the GF and tooling for the Model 3 in Fremont. But, as they have stated there will be no Model 3/Gen-III without the GF, and without Model 3/Gen-III they will not be a need for the GF. So they are both depending on each other.

 

[Trev Page]

Very good points. I would not expect to see a concept model announcement of the Model 3 before the X is released, and that is currently projected to be Q3 2015, so we are lucky if we get to see the Model 3 concept by the end of 2015. Which in turn implies a most likely release somewhere in 2019, best case scenario 2018, if they can really speed up the process.

Just because they haven't shown a concept of Model 3 doesn't mean they havent started on it yet. Perhaps Tesla wants to wait to show a mostly finished vehicle this time around. Maybe they've learned that showing your cards too early is detriment to them?