Andrea James interview 8/8/16

[Rarity]

Thanks to Andrea and Dave for taking the time to do this. Enlightening.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

Piling on to say great talk! Thanks to Dave to setting it up and to Andrea for offering her time. I watched it delayed so couldn't vote/comment live.

The thing I got out of it is I want her spreadsheet.... Surely she isn't using it any more? Maybe dumbed down. Honestly, if you look at us and our "crowdsourcing" we have gotten lax on the actual modeling. I think it would be neat if we had an official model that we all worked from and debated the inputs and assumptions.

If anyone in future writes The Spreadsheet, that'll be to what they're referring.

 

[Cosmacelf]

Thanks Dave for doing this, was interesting. Did you ask any questions that were suggested here?

 

[austinEV]

Hmm, perhaps I need some life coaching. My life plan consists largely of making money on TSLA. What life coach is equipped to advise on that?

 

[kenliles]

Hmm, perhaps I need some life coaching. My life plan consists largely of making money on TSLA. What life coach is equipped to advise on that?

I think John Peterson maintains an active list of therapists for that affliction...

 

[austinEV]

Hmm, perhaps I need some life coaching. My life plan consists largely of making money on TSLA. What life coach is equipped to advise on that?

I am only half kidding. She must charge less as a life coach than a stock analyst.

 

[kbeckley]

Really enjoyed the interview Dave and want to say thanks for Tesla Weekly and all your other contributions.

 

[hobbes]

This was great. I don´t remember listening to every word of such a long interview ever before. Both very informative and entertaining at the same time. It is not often that you have such knowledgeable people who are completely free to talk without restrictions. Thanks to much!

Actually, after hearing this I actually do not have the feeling we as retail investors are so far behind. It didn´t seem to me that AJ´s way of thinking about Tesla was so different about what we do as a collective here with croud sourced research. Sure, she has had access to many more details and way more time to invest, but at least if you are in for the long term, I believe you can do fine with the info from TMC and other free sources. Thanks everyone for contributing.

 

[JRP3]

Actually, after hearing this I actually do not have the feeling we as retail investors are so far behind.

Indeed, and it's often quite obvious that we here are much more informed about Tesla than some of the so called "professional" analysts.

 

[austinEV]

Indeed, and it's often quite obvious that we here are much more informed about Tesla than some of the so called "professional" analysts.

If we had a really good model, then you could do reasonable best-case, middle case, worst case analyses. Or just monte carlo simulations. If nothing else it would help a long sleep at night. I have my own simple models but some of the problems I could never solve it sounds like she did, like the cost of the materials. And that spreadsheet presumably reflects a few *years* of polishing from the after-the-call meetings.

 

[lorih]

I think they should take questions from individual investors... find some way to pick questions, say with top upvotes and then answer the top 25. Can be in written Q&A format.

I truly understand everyone's frustration here, but honestly, I have gone to the annual meeting every year, and Elon takes X questions from private shareholders and 95% is a complete waste of time. They ask questions Elon has previously stated in public talks, on conference calls and Twitter. Not all investors are as informed as the TMC community, and the vetting process would be a nightmare for Tesla.

Not to mention lawsuits when one individual investor starts to cry that he didn't get private time with Elon and that SEC rules require all info to be shared equally with investors.

 

[dakh]

DaveT thank you for making this happen!

 

[lorih]

Thanks DaveT and Andrea this was amazing. To those asking about spreadsheets. DaveT has been very opening to sharing his analysis in the past. I am sure a couple of you here could join forces to share info and refine an analysis (I think I hear AustinEV volunteering in my inner ear)

 

[dakh]

The analysts who have private calls need to get paid guys. Their research is very much accessible to anyone. All you had to do, in this case, was open up a brokerage account at Dougherty & Co.

They get paid for analysis. Of publicly available information, no less. Not for being buddies with a PR guy who knows sugar.

 

[Fallenone]

If we had a really good model, then you could do reasonable best-case, middle case, worst case analyses. Or just monte carlo simulations. If nothing else it would help a long sleep at night. I have my own simple models but some of the problems I could never solve it sounds like she did, like the cost of the materials. And that spreadsheet presumably reflects a few *years* of polishing from the after-the-call meetings.

I'm most interested in their cost too. Based on my coarse model, battery pack cost is no longer the "lowest hanging fruit" to reduce COGS for Model S and Model X. But I don't know how the other costs can be reduced and at what rate depending on what parameter (production rate seems the obvious one though, based on the Learning Curve theory).

 

[tinm]

Tesla Impossible II plot:

Your mission, Dave, should you decide to accept it, is to seek out and get a commitment from Adam Jonas of Morgan Stanley to do a similar Google Hangout interview. As always, should you or Adam be captured and sent to Seeking Alpha, the Director will disavow any knowledge of this mission. Good luck, Dave. This message will self-destruct in 5 seconds.

 

[neroden]

If we had a really good model, then you could do reasonable best-case, middle case, worst case analyses.

I do.

Or just monte carlo simulations. If nothing else it would help a long sleep at night. I have my own simple models but some of the problems I could never solve it sounds like she did, like the cost of the materials.

Indeed. That's not straightfoward to research.

And that spreadsheet presumably reflects a few *years* of polishing from the after-the-call meetings.

 

[lorih]

When I was working in instrumentation COGS was pretty stable, changing little in each quarter, but given that Elon says Tesla is constantly replacing parts, re-engineering, and bringing goods in-house (on the order of hundreds of parts per year), the COGS are a moving target which requires some level of reliable baseline, plus reasonable "fudge factor" on COGS reduction from continual improvements.

Not trivial

 

[tander]

Thanks Dave and Andrea for taking the time, learned a few new things, and was reminded of some old ones. Thanks especially to Andrea for her top notch questions and analysis.

 

[electricity]

Watched the video twice. I feel I understand Tesla alot more now. Thanks