Thanks for that. All those numbers are depressing for others makers. I still can’t figure out how BMW sold 250 i8s last month. That’s pretty incredibly large for that two seater. Or how big the MS and MX still are even at their now much lower ship rates.
Another clueless article..."How Ford Will Eat Tesla's Lunch in the Next Two Years"
- Thread starter insaneoctane
- Start date
Come on guys, don’t be so hard on the writer. There’s some truth in there, it’s just hard to find.
1) He’s long Ford and short Tesla, 2) Ford makes defective and crappy cars, yet stupid people still desire and buy them, 3) Ford has a lot more factories than Tesla. The first two are obvious and there’s nothing to discuss. However, #3 is interesting. Tesla is building factories as quickly as they possibly can given their financial situation. They have already said that they can’t electrify the entire industry and need others to step up. Those that don’t will have lots of unused factories available. Possibly Tesla will buy some of those, but likely not given prices, politics, location, age, or lack of modern robotics. Tesla got a steal on Fremont, based on it’s location, but still has put in mega dollars. Unless they can get others for fire sale pricing, I doubt they’ll buy, especially since most of these factories are in “anti-Tesla” areas. My guess is that Tesla will utilize and maximize current facilities, beyond what the old guard thinks possible. They will continue to use slight of hand, tents or other temporary devices as necessary to match demand. Perhaps the Lanthrop facility is partly a factory for certain parts, as well as storage. The GF will certainly expand again, perhaps Buffalo will expand or change use. Yes, it will take time and money, but didn’t Tesla just open a V3 supercharger in Las Vegas, in clear view of major multi-story hotels and a Ferris wheel, right under our noses? Why is it so hard to believe that they aren’t constructing non-descript warehouse factories in other areas?
Edit: Actually, looking at the map, Buffalo is an excellent location for expansion. It is centrally located for the eastern Canadian an US markets (statistically speaking, more cars will be sold in blue states and big cities). It is also closer to the Europe, so might facilitate easier deliveries to that market. All Tesla needs to do is “help” the EU realize that eliminating tariffs on electric vehicles will help meet climate targets faster.
1) He’s long Ford and short Tesla, 2) Ford makes defective and crappy cars, yet stupid people still desire and buy them, 3) Ford has a lot more factories than Tesla. The first two are obvious and there’s nothing to discuss. However, #3 is interesting. Tesla is building factories as quickly as they possibly can given their financial situation. They have already said that they can’t electrify the entire industry and need others to step up. Those that don’t will have lots of unused factories available. Possibly Tesla will buy some of those, but likely not given prices, politics, location, age, or lack of modern robotics. Tesla got a steal on Fremont, based on it’s location, but still has put in mega dollars. Unless they can get others for fire sale pricing, I doubt they’ll buy, especially since most of these factories are in “anti-Tesla” areas. My guess is that Tesla will utilize and maximize current facilities, beyond what the old guard thinks possible. They will continue to use slight of hand, tents or other temporary devices as necessary to match demand. Perhaps the Lanthrop facility is partly a factory for certain parts, as well as storage. The GF will certainly expand again, perhaps Buffalo will expand or change use. Yes, it will take time and money, but didn’t Tesla just open a V3 supercharger in Las Vegas, in clear view of major multi-story hotels and a Ferris wheel, right under our noses? Why is it so hard to believe that they aren’t constructing non-descript warehouse factories in other areas?Edit: Actually, looking at the map, Buffalo is an excellent location for expansion. It is centrally located for the eastern Canadian an US markets (statistically speaking, more cars will be sold in blue states and big cities). It is also closer to the Europe, so might facilitate easier deliveries to that market. All Tesla needs to do is “help” the EU realize that eliminating tariffs on electric vehicles will help meet climate targets faster.
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Kleenerth3
Member
#1- Like Mr. Buffet (see my prev. post).Come on guys, don’t be so hard on the writer. There’s some truth in there, it’s just hard to find.
Edit: Actually, looking at the map, Buffalo is an excellent location for expansion. It is centrally located for the eastern Canadian an US markets (statistically speaking, more cars will be sold in blue states and big cities). It is also closer to the Europe, so might facilitate easier deliveries to that market. All Tesla needs to do is “help” the EU realize that eliminating tariffs on electric vehicles will help meet climate targets faster.
#2- Like Toyota (not#1 in anything)!
#3- You make an interesting point. While Ford has the manufacturing infrastructure, Tesla has the EV infrastructure and with T building 7-8 new V3 charging stations daily, not one of the major car co.s is even working on it. There are several co.s in EV charging business but only one or two are even dabbling in it (VW for instance). Big deal! They can't even figure out how slow they charge next to T. Phttt.
As our economy moves more heavily into green energy, ICE manufacturing will slow as demand wanes and Tesla will begin picking up devalued properties from all the others.
Don't get me wrong, the more companies that are making EV's the better for the earth. Unfortunately, big oil still has it's claws dug deeply into the auto industry as well as NYSE. They, for now, must pay the penalty of hedging their dirty oil $ with our very health, our lives!
We need Tesla to prosper, to continue leading American auto manufacturing into the big switch to EV's and forge partnerships with them so everyone can benefit.
You're right, there seems to be a disparity between the two, but looking closer, it runs both ways
TT97
Active Member
I think the biggest thing Tesla shorts don't understand is that there is no one coming around to eat "Tesla's lunch". There is plenty of food available from the current ICE market.
Domestic BEV/PHEV sales last year were 361k, that was only 2.1% of the entire vehicles sales last year. There is still 98% of the market available for conversion from ICE. The more viable BEV options in the market, the more people will convert from ICE.
The Model 3 is a perfect example. Tesla sold 140k M3s last year. While it took some sales away from other BEVs, it mostly took sales from ICE vehicles. Excluding the M3 sales, domestic sales for other BEV/PHEVs still grew 11.8% from 2017.
The more manufacturers make BEVs available in the market, the more the BEV market becomes common place, the more people will convert to BEVs from ICE.
Domestic BEV/PHEV sales last year were 361k, that was only 2.1% of the entire vehicles sales last year. There is still 98% of the market available for conversion from ICE. The more viable BEV options in the market, the more people will convert from ICE.
The Model 3 is a perfect example. Tesla sold 140k M3s last year. While it took some sales away from other BEVs, it mostly took sales from ICE vehicles. Excluding the M3 sales, domestic sales for other BEV/PHEVs still grew 11.8% from 2017.
The more manufacturers make BEVs available in the market, the more the BEV market becomes common place, the more people will convert to BEVs from ICE.
...
Elon is not running a traditional company and Wall St hate it. Hedge fund managers are lost cuz none of this was covered in business school. The "competition", isn't. No other company can update, has their own batteries, makes their own interiors, has this type of electric motor, has no advertising, has no dealerships, etc., Etc. Ad infinitum...
To be fair, this is pretty much classic disruption theory, or disruptive innovation. Tesla can do all those things since they have no prior business to protect. The ICE incumbents can't because they have their ICE business to protect. Presumably all hedge fund managers either learned this in B-school, or they read the book, Innovator's Dilemma.
As for Wall St., they don't hate Tesla, they love companies that generate fees for them, and whenever Tesla has to issue debt or equity, they generate fees. Even a "going private" transaction would generate huge fees.
Hedgies aren't traditional Wall St., they can be anywhere. Often, they're people who've retired from traditional Wall St., and have setup shop wherever suits them, usually near other rich people. Hedgies aren't investment banks, so they don't participate in underwriting and get fees, they just trade. They don't hate Tesla, they should love Tesla, because price volatility is their friend, and Tesla is nothing but volatile.
Kleenerth3
Member
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