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Another Prediction Thread: Guess the top end price

Discussion in 'Model 3' started by wbrumfiel, Mar 25, 2016.

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What do you think a fully loaded Model 3 will cost?

  1. 40,000 - 45,000

    1 vote(s)
    0.4%
  2. 45,000 - 50,000

    1 vote(s)
    0.4%
  3. 50,000 - 55,000

    8 vote(s)
    3.5%
  4. 55,000 - 60,000

    26 vote(s)
    11.5%
  5. 60,000 - 65,000

    47 vote(s)
    20.8%
  6. 65,000 - 70,000

    52 vote(s)
    23.0%
  7. 70,000 - 75,000

    40 vote(s)
    17.7%
  8. 75,000+

    51 vote(s)
    22.6%
  1. wbrumfiel

    wbrumfiel Member

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    Just wondering what everyone thinks a 'fully optioned' Model 3 will sell for. I've seen predictions in other threads but not a thread with just price predictions. Poll is for USD (as that is what I'm familiar with)
     
  2. Newb

    Newb Member

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    I think that Tesla will position the top end M3 slightly above the MS base price, in order to not cannibalize MS 70 and 70D sales too much.
     
  3. Fiver

    Fiver Member

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    Is this before or after the supposed price increases coming in April?

    Honestly beyond vague figures do you expect them to talk pricing this early on? I don't expect to hear hard prices until a few months before actual release.
     
  4. Johann Koeber

    Johann Koeber Member

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    Maybe not 2017, but over time Tesla will offer a lot of expensive options for the Model 3 - after all this is the way to make money on a car that "starts at 35,000".

    At a cost options might include:

    - different wheels
    - paint colors
    - performance upgrades
    - interior (carbon anyone?)
    - sport seats
    - and much more

    This is just a short list from the existing cars (Model S/X and roadster). More to come in the future.

    Some of the options might not even include hardware. I could imagine software enabled capabilities as an option. So far we have been given these largely without extra cost. This could change.
     
  5. wbrumfiel

    wbrumfiel Member

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    I doubt we will find out any pricing other than Elon mentioning the already known base price on 3/31. This is simply a prediction thread for whenever the pricing comes around.
     
  6. Grendal

    Grendal Active Member

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    I expect the Model 3 to have a similar price increase as a Model S. The base model S is around $70K and a top end loaded model is around $125K. So a $55K difference. $35K + $55K is $90K as the top end for the Model 3.

    I already agree that there is a difference and a lot of options for the Model S is not applicable for the Model 3. I also expect that a lot of smaller basic options will be extras for the Model 3.

    It's a gross simplification, but I bet the numbers end up that way.

    I wonder if Tesla will offer an aluminum body package for the Model 3 for those willing to pay the extra to get it. They have the aluminum stamping machines. Why not use them and offer it?
     
  7. PTADO

    PTADO Member

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    Don't know if anyone caught this, but it fits right in this thread for sure. For those who hadn't seen it:

    Tesla Model 3: speculating on versions, batteries, prices, power

    The "educated" guess in the article seems fairly possible, with a 344, 366D, and P366D models ranging from the opening $35K through the top end being approx $60K.

    Anyway, was an interesting article to read and a nice change from the typical daily "Model 3 reservations are $1000" wash, rinse, repeat articles plaguing the internet for the past few weeks.
     
  8. sg021

    sg021 Member

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    I fully expect the top end to be quite expensive. That article is good, but I actually think they low balled it a bit.

    $35,000 base
    $10,000 battery upgrade
    $5,000 Dual Motor
    $2,500 autopilot

    That's already low $50k without paint, wheel, interior, air suspension, sound system, performance, or ludicrous upgrades.
     
  9. wbrumfiel

    wbrumfiel Member

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    That is if they offer all of the upgrades that were on the S/X. Elon has said it wouldn't have all the bells and whistles but didn't really say they wouldn't be an option. I do assume the vehicle they will bring to the reveal will be highly optioned though, most car companies don't show off their base models.
     
  10. igotzzoom

    igotzzoom Member

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    If someone wants to pay $70k+ for a Model 3, have at it. My budget is $45k max. Hoping I'll be able to configure a nice model for that.
     
  11. KJD

    KJD Member

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    The base model 70 starts at 70,000 and I would hope that the high end model 3 would be below that so I voted 55-60. That would give a model 3 a range of 35-60 and that seems reasonable.
     
    • Like x 1
  12. DeusExMachinist

    DeusExMachinist New Member

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    I'm holding out some hope that the upgrade costs will scale with the cost of the vehicle, like how the reservation for the S was $2500 but $1000 for model 3. Maybe autopilot will be similarly scaled?
     
  13. Lonnie123

    Lonnie123 Member

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    Something to remember is Tax, Title, License, and delivery fee on the car. You actually have to price it around $39k to end up at $45k (If you are buying in California, or another state with higher sales tax). The destination fee is currently $1,100 on the S/X, and the TTL is $4000 on a $40k car.

    Also, keep in mind that the (full) Tax rebate will almost certainly be gone. The rumor is that there are upwards of 20,000 Telsa/Space X employee reservations already. On top of that, high option builds will go first, then west coast to east coast...

    Not trying to rain on your parade, but just a warning to be cautious when pricing the car because it does end up being quite a bit more than the sticker price when its all said and done.
     
  14. boiler81

    boiler81 Member

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    StreetInsider.com reported last Sept. that:

    "Lowering battery cost via changes to cell chemistry and Gigafactory scale benefits are critical determinants of Tesla's ability to sell an affordable Model 3 starting at $35K," Dolev commented. "Our detailed battery component cost analysis details a path to 50%+ reduction in battery pack cost to $125/kWh by 2020,..."

    So I'm optimistic that battery upgrade cost from 44kW to 66kW will under $6K additional. Is this unrealistic with the Gigifactory?

     
  15. Model 3

    Model 3 Active Member

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    First, this numbers are just guesses. We do not know if it will be 44, 55, 60 or 70kWh as base battery size, we do not know the range of it (except over 200 real world miles) and we do not know if it will be one, two or three battery sizes to select among. But at least two is a very valid guess.

    But I do believe that the option to upgrade from one battery to next size (if it is an option) will be under the $10k it was from TMS60 to TMS85. My wild guess would be $7500, but it may end up over or under this...
     
  16. sg021

    sg021 Member

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    No reason to think the highest end Model 3 has to be below the lowest Model S. You can buy a loaded MB C63 that costs not only more than an E Class, but a base S Class as well.
     
  17. neroden

    neroden Happy Model S Owner

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    I'm guessing there will be some super high end options. Hopefully *custom paint*, which Tesla can charge an arm and a leg for and people *will* pay for.
     
  18. tga

    tga Active Member

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    There are roughly 20,000 employees total across both companies. They didn't all reserve...
     
  19. Stretch2727

    Stretch2727 Engineer and Car Nut

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    Certainly hope the battery upgrade is not $10K. This would show Tesla has truly not brought down the costs of the battery.

    A 15kWh battery upgrade should be no more than $5K. I am assuming $150kWh cost and greater than 50% gross margin. With the GF rumors are they are approaching $100kWh, but this likely does not include the integration cost for battery pack.

    Of course it maybe packaged with other options. (Dual Motor, etc) like you have with the model S.
     
  20. AUSinator

    AUSinator Member

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    #20 AUSinator, Mar 27, 2016
    Last edited: Mar 27, 2016
    The Model s is a Mercedes S class/BMW 7 series competitor. Where as the model 3 is a c class and BMW 3 series competitor. A Mercedes AMGc class63 and a BMW M3 is about $65 000 new with more standard options and even nicer interior than the Tesla model S. Also those prices are negotiable where as the Teslas price is not. Elon Said that the model 3 will have Less fetures than the model s and considering that Teslas interiors are not in the same legue as the Germans. Considering also this is as important as the model S was for the company. Then considering lots of other EV's will be coming on to the market. For these reasons they would be crazy to price the under spect top model 3 higher than the competition. So expect $60000-65000 for the top model with all options wheels/super charger/sunroof/ etc going to $75000 anything higher than that would be unfair/ not competitive and rude!!!!!!!!!!!! It would just disapoint a lot of people. Actually I even think Tesla would lose money if they priced the car expensive. As sometimes you make more money selling 2 than 1.
     

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