Any advantage to putting down a deposit now?

[fairlycool]

Is there any advantage to putting down a deposit for a Model S now? Tesla is sold out of its 2012 model year production and hope to ramp up to 20,000 cars in 2013. Right now the reservation numbers are upto 8000 which means anyone putting a deposit now will get one in 2013 anyway.

I doubt they'll be able to fully sell out 2013's 20,000 run as well, so can someone explain to me why would I still put down a deposit now rather that just wait it out till 2013.

 

[ElSupreme]

Well you assure your place in line. Probably Mar-April of next year delivery if they ramp up production as scheduled.

The other advantage is you might get some negotiating power if they raise the price. Might not help but it could.

EDIT: There are probably a lot of people waiting until they start delivery before they drop $5k on a car they won't get in a year. I fully plan on getting a Model S, but don't have my reservation yet. Dropping $5k is a big deal based on my income. And I want to be a little more sure about their production abilities before I deposit. I fully plan to get my reservation before they deliver any units, as I think they will get a large amount of reservations the first month of deliveries.

 

[AnOutsider]

Is there any advantage to putting down a deposit for a Model S now? Tesla is sold out of its 2012 model year production and hope to ramp up to 20,000 cars in 2013. Right now the reservation numbers are upto 8000 which means anyone putting a deposit now will get one in 2013 anyway.

I doubt they'll be able to fully sell out 2013's 20,000 run as well, so can someone explain to me why would I still put down a deposit now rather that just wait it out till 2013.

Just in case they do sell out? Then again, if it got that bad, they could always just increase production. Down to you I suppose.

 

[Todd Burch]

Deposit now means you'll get your car at a minimum a few months earlier. If publicity is positive and the reservation rate really ramps up, it could be an even larger time difference. Is the earlier delivery worth the cost of loaning the $5k to Tesla for a little over a year?

 

[gg_got_a_tesla]

Very logical line of thinking. If Tesla's going to ramp up production enough to put out 1,600+ cars a month in 2013, there's probably no need to rush in with a reservation at this time. You can wing it till later this year or even well into 2013. Put that $5K into some other judicious investment for now (or even TSLA if you are up for a roller coaster ride there )

 

[evinfairfax]

I understand what you're saying. I had the same question a few weeks ago. I had heard about the "Tesla Sedan" when they first announced it a couple of years ago. But then I completely forgot about it (stupid!, stupid!) until I happened to walk by a Tesla Store in January and said "oh yeah, that's right, I remember they were doing that!"

Then the bad news came, which is that I would have to be put on a 15 month waiting list. And so I was so disappointed I actually decided not to put the deposit at first. I think you're exactly right, that by the end of 2013 at the latest I suspect the ordering time will be very short (order now and get the car in 8-10 weeks sort of thing).

Having said, I did call back a few days later and give them the $5k anyway. Hopefully it gets me the car 4-5 months earlier than I would otherwise? Maybe just 3. I think I'm #6709 on the regular US list. They told me April of 2013.

If they had asked for $50k, I might have said no. Well, actually it the deposit was $50k, maybe the queue wouldn't be so long!

 

[Todd Burch]

Other advantage: you might receive invites to reservation-holder-only Tesla events...perhaps a production launch party? Not sure if there are any of those left, though.

 

[Norbert]

Having said, I did call back a few days later and give them the $5k anyway. Hopefully it gets me the car 4-5 months earlier than I would otherwise? Maybe just 3. I think I'm #6709 on the regular US list. They told me April of 2013.

Could also be much more. The thing is, the better the Model S is received when delivery starts, the longer you will have to wait if you don't reserve. So in the case in which you'll really want it the most, you'd have to wait the longest.

 

[NigelM]

Is there any advantage to putting down a deposit for a Model S now?

Yes....If you are going to order the 85kWh battery pack. Tesla has stated that they will produce the reservations in order of battery size, so ordering an 85kWh will almost certainly get you into 2012.

 

[Todd Burch]

Yes....If you are going to order the 85kWh battery pack. Tesla has stated that they will produce the reservations in order of battery size, so ordering an 85kWh will almost certainly get you into 2012.

That's only for initial production. It might get someone at P2000 (85kWh) ahead of P200 (40 kWh), but not someone at P8000.

 

[evinfairfax]

That's only for initial production. It might get someone at P2000 (85kWh) ahead of P200 (40 kWh), but not someone at P8000.

Yes, that was what I was told when I placed my order also. I'm so far back in the queue that the fact that I'm getting the Performance won't matter at all in terms of priority. By then they will be in production with all 3 battery packs. At least that's what I was told.

 

[Lloyd]

I think you will see order jump dramatically when cars begin to be delivered. Watch the orders and jump in when you feel it is right for you. You should be able to anticipate your delivery at the time of your order. Orders submitted today for US delivery would likely deliver about April of 2013 if trheir prododuction schedule is accourate.

 

[EVNow]

I doubt they'll be able to fully sell out 2013's 20,000 run as well, so can someone explain to me why would I still put down a deposit now rather that just wait it out till 2013.

Apart from what others have noted, it is one way of showing support for Tesla.

 

[richkae]

Suppose the current order backlog as of today is filled by march 2013.

Lets try 3 scenarios:
1) No more orders come in between now and march 2013. The result: by March 2013 you can drive away with a Model S in just a days or weeks.
2) Orders continue at about the same pace: 500 per month. 6000 more orders by March. That pushes you out to about June/July 2013. Of course more orders come in over those 3 months pushing you out to Sept . Meaning Sept 2013 would be the earliest you would be only a days or weeks away from a car.
3) Orders accelerate in the 2nd half of 2012 when lots of people can see,feel and test drive production cars. Orders come in at 1000 per month after september 2012 and the backlog isnt cleared until the end of 2013.

Which do you think is most likely?

 

[AnOutsider]

I think if #3 happens Tesla might switch to double shifts... Though more cars out means more to deal with at once... Might be prudent to continue a slow ramp up

 

[Robert.Boston]

Remember that the $5k reservation is fully refundable, and with interest rates near zero, the cost to you is fairly low. The deposit now means you'll have the car for summer driving in 2013, which (for me) would be a big plus, as summer is when I do most of my driving.

 

[Sparrow]

I have a Model S reservation, but may want an X too. I've decided to wait to make an X deposit partly because I think they can ramp production of that car up faster.

 

[ckessel]

I think if #3 happens Tesla might switch to double shifts... Though more cars out means more to deal with at once... Might be prudent to continue a slow ramp up

And it could be difficult to switch to 2 shifts with any quickness. Aside from the hiring and training, Tesla's entire supply chain would have to gear up for extra production. For some elements, that's no big deal, but for other less common parts it may take the supplier time to be able to increase their production.

 

[GSP]

suppose the current order backlog as of today is filled by march 2013.

Lets try 3 scenarios:
1) no more orders come in between now and march 2013. The result: By march 2013 you can drive away with a model s in just a days or weeks.
2) orders continue at about the same pace: 500 per month. 6000 more orders by march. That pushes you out to about june/july 2013. Of course more orders come in over those 3 months pushing you out to sept . Meaning sept 2013 would be the earliest you would be only a days or weeks away from a car.
3) orders accelerate in the 2nd half of 2012 when lots of people can see,feel and test drive production cars. Orders come in at 1000 per month after september 2012 and the backlog isnt cleared until the end of 2013.

Which do you think is most likely?

#3

gsp

 

[tnawara]

I have a Model S reservation, but may want an X too. I've decided to wait to make an X deposit partly because I think they can ramp production of that car up faster.

I'm in the same situation and have taken the same approach. Let's hope it works out...