Any advantage to putting down a deposit now?

[Mycroft]

I agree with GSP, #3 is the more likely scenario. Remember that the current rate of reservations is based purely on seeing and reading about the car. No final production model available and no test drives!!! If the car is anything like we think it will be, the test drives (and promotion by new owners) will knock the socks off! I think by the end of 2012, reservations will be going through the roof!

 

[WhiteKnight]

I think Tesla is always going to target a backlog of 5,000 vehicles because I think they want to always have visibility one quarter out. So I think there will always be a 2-4 month wait.

I fully expect they'll have 10,000+ reservations on October 1, 2012 and by then they'll have delivered all the Signatures. Two quarters later they'll still probably have 5,000+ reservations.

In summary there will always be a line, so when do you want the car? You might be able to jump in line in April 2013 and get one by July but it might be August or September.

[note: I would think the backlog would have to consistently be 10,000 reservations before they add a second shift and double capacity OR once the Model X is rolling off the production line if he combined backlog is 10,000 then that would of course necessitate a second shift.]

 

[neroden]

Is there any advantage to putting down a deposit for a Model S now? Tesla is sold out of its 2012 model year production and hope to ramp up to 20,000 cars in 2013. Right now the reservation numbers are upto 8000 which means anyone putting a deposit now will get one in 2013 anyway.

I doubt they'll be able to fully sell out 2013's 20,000 run as well,

I think they will be able to. They don't even have the reservations induced by test drives yet -- nobody has test-driven a model S! Nobody's even ridden in the absolutely final interior! I suspect that once the car is "really out there", there will be another run on reservations, and the 2013 run may well sell out. So if you think like I do, and you want to get your car early in 2013, rather than late, you would put down your reservation now.

so can someone explain to me why would I still put down a deposit now rather that just wait it out till 2013.

I do think they won't be able to sell out 2014's reservation list in advance, however, so if you're in no more of a hurry than that, just wait.

 

[neroden]

I think if #3 happens Tesla might switch to double shifts... Though more cars out means more to deal with at once... Might be prudent to continue a slow ramp up

Given the new factory, the new car, the massive rate of hiring they're having to do already, and the fact that they're going to be figuring out how to adapt the same production line to simultaneous Model X and Model S production, I seriously doubt that they'll go to two shifts during 2013. You might see two shifts in 2014, but doing so in 2013 would risk much higher factory defect rates.

 

[neroden]

I think Tesla is always going to target a backlog of 5,000 vehicles because I think they want to always have visibility one quarter out. So I think there will always be a 2-4 month wait.

Airplane or train manufacturer style: never build speculative, always have a backlog. Interesting theory.

I think eventually Tesla will start to build cars speculatively, without a backlog, but not until they have their network of stores and service centers built out. Currently the development of this network of stores and service centers is lagging, and I don't think it can support speculative car building for several years yet. So for the next few years, I agree with you.

 

[VolkerP]

Is there any advantage to putting down a deposit for a Model S now?

Yes, your reservation fee helps Tesla being there in 2013 to actually build your car. It does this in many ways: * cash * res numbers to reassure investors * your reservation holder feedback (even denying to RSVP for an event is useful information for Tesla).
I recommend making your reservation now, then go tell everyone around and nudge them to do the same. Since you mentioned to get the performance version, money doesn't seem to be the problem :redface:

 

[ElSupreme]

Well for me there is another big advantage to putting down a deposit. I convinced my mom that she needs one. She is going to get her deposit down in June. I need to get mine done in March.

EDIT: I need to be far enough in front of her so that I get my Model S first!

 

[rogbmw]

Another thing positive about having a reservation is that I have been told later this spring they will have a car available to reservation holders here in Florida to test drive. From what I have been told, it will be making the rounds to give reservation holders test drives. I think I understood correctly that it will be for reservation holders only.