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Any Canadians get to order D or P Model 3's yet?

Discussion in 'Canada' started by Dante, Jun 6, 2018.

  1. Dante

    Dante Member

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    So a few days ago, Elon replied to the Tesla Model 3 OC Tweet that configurator access to P and D Model 3s would be rolling out over the next week. Has anyone actually been invited in Canada? If so, are you a current owner? Reservation date? Location?

    Thanks!
     
  2. Lon12

    Lon12 Member

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    No. :(
    See signature for all the other information.
     
  3. Tony_YYZ

    Tony_YYZ Active Member

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    To be fair, EM didn't really specify whether he was talking about Canadians or just the continued roll out in the USA. It's hard to interpret what he means sometimes.
     
  4. Moderatefan

    Moderatefan Member

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    #4 Moderatefan, Jun 6, 2018
    Last edited: Jun 6, 2018
    Each car sent to Canada from now on means someone doesn't get full tax credit in U.S., potentially day 1 reservations.
    Will be interesting to see if deliveries to Canada are minimized until EOY for that reason.
    On one hand, there's probably only 10k outstanding reservations in Canada, which is not many. On the other hand, that's 10K of people in U.S. with reduced tax credit, who may decide to cancel. Canadian 10k may also decide to cancel. Who knows what they'll choose.
    But I think if no one received an invite for P/D from Canada yet, that's an ominous sign for you, which means you don't have the same priority as U.S.
     
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  5. RiverBrick

    RiverBrick Active Member

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    There could easily be 10k outstanding reservations in Quebec alone.
     
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  6. Moderatefan

    Moderatefan Member

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    All guesswork. I'm guessing 11% of U.S. (by population) and U.S. is 50% of 450K total reservations, so Canada is 25K.
    And probably 50% of that jumped on 1st production, b/c of high chance of losing tax credit.
     
  7. Dante

    Dante Member

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    I wonder if we are grossly over-estimating the number of people who would go for the higher priced options to nab the tax credit. I wonder if a large chunk of US reservation holders thought "$35k-7.5k = 27.5k for a BMW-smoking Tesla, sign me up!"

    I'm holding out hope, because if Tesla wasn't planning on delivering any Model 3s to Canada during the US credit ramp down, why would they have changed the delivery window for the P/D variants to mid 2018 for some Canadian reservation holders. Literally the only thing keeping me from ordering a first production car now is the chance the dual motor option will open up in the next few weeks. Almost seems counterproductive for Tesla to advertise the D option as mid-2018 if it won't be here until 2019. I can imagine many more Canadians would jump on the car now if they knew for certain it'll be another 6 months for AWD...
     
  8. DMC-Orangeville

    DMC-Orangeville 85D and John Deere 5100E

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    The word we had, from a good source, was that Canada had over 45,000 Model 3 reservations. There are thousands (yes thousands) being delivered in Ontario right now - and that will pale when the AWD and short range battery are released. @RiverBrick states that Quebec probably has 10,000 on order - and he's probably bang-on
     
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  9. sitter_k

    sitter_k Active Member

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    Yup the vast majority of Canadians wanted AWD. It was a 70/30 split. Hard to imagine that all but 10,000 have converted to RWD now.
     
  10. Moderatefan

    Moderatefan Member

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    #10 Moderatefan, Jun 7, 2018
    Last edited: Jun 7, 2018
    Interesting. I think you shouldn't lose the hope yet, maybe your current estimates will pan out.
    Who knows, maybe they'll be able to exceed production rate estimates, go like 6-7K/week. At that rate they'll be able to fill all non-SR demand for both U.S. and Canada before EOY.
    I'm conflicted about some info Elon communicates. For example, he stated they achieved 3.5k/week and he hopes after May improvements to reach 5k by EO June. He also mentioned they just added the new 3rd line to Fremont, which is better than 1st two and just got few cars off of it, so it shouldn't have contributed to 3.5K. So, this new line should easily take them to 5K. Is this what he called "improvements" or there was something else done to existing lines? He also said at the Q1 call that they'll be adding 3rd shift and will be hiring people throughout May-June to man that shift...I feel that this is not in place yet, at least I didn't see any news on it, so maybe the 3rd shift will be able to bring production rate to 7.5K at Freemont...

    Now the GF. After the massive efficiency improvements in April shutdown they said they could achieve 5K with existing lines on it.
    Yet, they flew in the new additional line from Germany, which supposedly was as good as all their existing lines combined (before they made improvements to them). So, unclear if it can double output from 5K or maybe add some significant capacity on top of 5K.
    But...all industry experts said it is super expensive to fly equipment and Tesla was in a rush to do that, so hopefully they plan to exceed 5K.
    There's this uncertainty factor caused by some reports that 40% of GF output goes to scrap or is refurbished, but my hope is that Musk knowing this would not account for these 40% in his math.
     
  11. Blu-Ion

    Blu-Ion Member

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    Probably factor in down time for maintenance, with 3 lines available, you can rotate your maintenance windows, thus minimizing the plant shutdowns Telsa has experienced in the recent past
     
  12. RiverBrick

    RiverBrick Active Member

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    The chance of losing the cash rebate factor only applied to Ontario. There is no federal rebate in Canada, just rebates in three of the provinces. Most of the people I know in Quebec are holding out for AWD, SR, or not having to buy the premium package.
     
  13. Canuck

    Canuck Well-Known Member

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    Yes, thank you Ontario because the reason I am driving a 3 today, instead of "late 2018" as Tesla first told us (and in "Tesla time" likely meant 2019), is because of the large, and likely short lasting, Ontario rebate.

    We only have a $5k rebate here and the government only allocated a small amount of funds compared to Ontario that will likely run out long before the March 2020 budget renewal date -- and the last time our EV rebate ran out it took a few years and budgets to get it back. I doubt any will be left by the time AWD comes to BC, especially with all the 3's being delivered now, and the fact that is also applies to plug-in hybrids which will eat a lot of it up. It's one of the reason I decided not to wait for AWD -- in addition to the fact that's life too short to give up a summer with a 3.

    I don't know about that. You're asking Tesla to make an announcement of what really amounts to a delayed production of AWD to Canada to try to get more vehicles sold to Canada, when Tesla is having difficulty just delivering all of the ones that have been ordered, plus shareholders do not generally like negative announcements to try to drum up sales. That can really backfire with the press and the shorts who look for any reason to jump on Tesla production delay announcements. I know the answer is that's it's not really a delay -- just an announcement of priorities -- but it likely wouldn't be taken that way. So Tesla probably looks at it differently than you do.
     
  14. dmd2005

    dmd2005 Member

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    With long range battery, premium package, and AWD, that will break past the $77K ceiling to qualify for any EV rebate in BC anyways.

    My 4 year standard warranty is up in 1.5 years on my 2015 S90D, so I should be able to get a fully loaded performance 3 in Dec 2019...unless there is a major update on an S by that time that will sway me into getting another S.
     
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  15. sitter_k

    sitter_k Active Member

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    So anyone know if Canada is getting bypassed for AWD?
     
  16. ebatmobile

    ebatmobile Member

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    How do you figure we are getting bypassed? No one outside of North America has been asked to configure AWD unless I am mistaken.
     
  17. Canuck

    Canuck Well-Known Member

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    My thoughts exactly. We got pushed to the front of the line due to US/Canada rebate issues since I wasn't suppose to get one until "late 2018" yet it's in my garage now -- and they just delivered a ton of RWD vehicles to us. If they started to now deliver AWD to us without first rolling them out to those down south, I'd be surprised. My guess is late 2018 to early 2019 until we see AWD up here.
     
  18. M109Rider

    M109Rider Member

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    This is indeed a painful time for us electric vehicle buyers for sure.

    -Rebates in Canada and the US are poised to disappear shortly.
    -There are only 3 or 4 viable all electric car options (in my humble opinion, and for my requirements) that would even work, and not one of them is available for me to purchase at the moment. So, the second any of them are finally available, the tax credit will be gone.... Ugh.
    I would have purchased any one of the three cars listed below to take advantage of the rebate before it is gone.
    The Chevy Bolt (none to be found in Canada ), Hyundai Kona (Not available until end of this year, or 2019), Tesla (end of this year, early next as well).
    The Nissan Leaf has great range, but the battery (with no heat or cooling management) is doomed to a short life, so I won't consider that car.

    I'm simply watching the tax credit of $14,000 float away because none of the above three cars are available..... Sad times.
    I'm sure our US neighbours are feeling the same frustration. (They have lots of Bolts available though.)
     
  19. Koflach

    Koflach Member

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    I feel your pain. I recently reserved my Model 3 thinking that i'd be okay to get the $5000 BC tax credit only to find out from Tesla today that 8 months is more realistic which means I won't be getting the rebate. Thankfully my "cousin" has an early model 3 reservation that is ready to order and he doesn't plan on using it so I will.
     
  20. sitter_k

    sitter_k Active Member

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    If Tesla follows the same invite pattern going by reservation time some Canadians should have been invited by now shouldn't they?
     

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