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Any idea when 100D (not P100D) might make debut?

Discussion in 'Model S: Ordering, Production, Delivery' started by finallybuying, Aug 23, 2016.

  1. finallybuying

    finallybuying Member

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    I'm happy about the 100kWh battery but super bummed that it isn't being offered in the standard 100D version. I am looking for more range than the 90D and have been holding off on buying waiting for the 100D. Anyone hear anything or have any educated guesses when the 100D might make its debut?

    Seriously considering leasing an ICE for three years unless 100D is on the horizon soon . . . :(
     
  2. HillCountryFun

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    It won't take too long...
     
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  3. ChadS

    ChadS Petroleum is for sissies

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    Are you kidding? No matter how short the time, it will take FOREVER!

    Slightly more seriously, I doubt anybody here will have a good guess, because probably even Tesla doesn't know. It depends on both how battery production and orders go.

    I would imagine it's a matter of months, but that's still a pretty broad range.
     
  4. Model S M.D.

    Model S M.D. Ludicrous Radiologist

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    All we know right now, based on the Q&A session, is "several months" for the 100D (non P non L)...
     
  5. DFibRL8R

    DFibRL8R Member

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    Not sure but I suppose it depends on how long they can get the $ from the performance folks who are willing to part with their cash. My guess is a few months of deliveries then once the demand for the P100D is getting satisfied they'll start building non performance models. This has been the case with the other top end editions at P85 and P90.

    I would imagine they could even do what they are doing on the low end with a range limited 90 for reduced price that you can charge to 100% every day and get the same effective range as a 100 in daily driving.

    Seriously, the 90D is already pushing the limits in terms of nonstop driving without needing a bio break. Don't lease an ICE for 3 years!o_O
     
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  6. Troy

    Troy Member

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    #6 Troy, Aug 23, 2016
    Last edited: Aug 23, 2016
    The electrek article says several months.

    Quote: Elon Musk described the new P100D pack as “complex” and that Tesla will first focus on the performance P100D version and the 100D will follow “several months” later. Source

    To me it sounds like they have limited number of 100 kWh packs and they want to sell more P100D's to keep the profit margins high.

    Btw, as a side note, the range increase from P90D to P100D is 315/270-1= 16.67%. If the same ratio applies, S100D should have 294*1.1667= 343 mi EPA range.
     
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  7. DFibRL8R

    DFibRL8R Member

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    Precisely, but at least they're honest about it and their intentions are good:
    "While the P100D Ludicrous is obviously an expensive vehicle, we want to emphasize that every sale helps pay for the smaller and much more affordable Tesla Model 3 that is in development. Without customers willing to buy the expensive Model S and X, we would be unable to fund the smaller, more affordable Model 3 development."

    So folks should feel good as they stroke that check for 135k!
     
  8. Airhawker

    Airhawker Member

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    Looks like battery upgrades for existing P90DL to P100D are going to be $20k. Wonder what it would be to go from 75D to 100D. Would that even be possible?
     
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  9. Ulmo

    Ulmo Active Member

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    #9 Ulmo, Aug 24, 2016
    Last edited: Aug 24, 2016
    Seems like it will be. But Tesla has been really cagey about actually doing battery swaps. I hope they get more free with this in the future. For instance, what if I want to swap in a 90kWh pack into my 75kWh car that someone sold due to buying a 100kWh pack? I'd then want my 75kWh pack to go someplace: either I put it in a conversion kit to work as a time shift for my solar panels at home, or I send it back to Tesla for THEM to re-integrate those batteries into a time shift fixed battery storage product. I'd like to see much more liquidity in this type of activity. So far, it's been pretty damn lockstep. Part of the problem is that the fixed storage business is pretty young, and supply constrained, and the cars are supply constrained too. You'd think this would allow shifting used batteries to the supply-constrained marketplaces as long as someone is interested in buying a new upgrade, but it is SO supply constrained that Tesla doesn't even NEED to service these upgrades, since all they have to do is force you to trade up a whole new car or fixed storage, and just not worry about it AT ALL -- it's a seller's market right now.

    We need to get a bunch of 90kWh owners who want to pay a huge huge huge amount of money for a few miles more and less than a second of track speed for this marketplace to really open up in any real way, and I'm not expecting that to come to fruition, until there is a much healthier mix in the marketplace that doesn't jam up all the possibilities since there's no movement just yet.

    I think what will unjam this is GigaFactory #1 being online in a big way: once they start making more than enough packs for Tesla Energy (fixed storage) AND Tesla car new production and upgrades (for Model 3, Model S, Model X, etc.), then the chicken-egg question will be: can I upgrade my ___ (fill in the blank) to a ____ (fill in the blank), and if the Gigafactory can (1) make the upgraded pack (yes) AND (2) recycle the old pack into a fixed storage product that someone is willing to buy even though it contains used cells (yes), then suddenly this type of activity will become more frequently possible. I'd love to work inside Tesla to do the logistics programming to make this sort of thing possible, but I bet I'd be railroaded for a while before I could catch up to whatever logistics system they're using and be able to figure out a way to shoehorn this into their current process flows in any sort of smoothly integrated way.

    In effect, my guess is that they will eventually make this possible, sometime after Model 3 has been humming down the production line for a while. That's about when the Gigafactory #1 will be proficient enough that these possibilities will actually be possible. Throw in the demand from many of the owners, and I don't think it will take much for these prices to start coming out. For some odd reason, it's not an easy swap; the various generations of revisions of the Model S & X line is pretty substantial, so there has to be a pretty proper specialist in there to do your battery swap for your particular car to the particular new pack being installed. While that can all be figured out back at the mothership by the designers and engineers, right now, they're pretty occupied with the new models (Model 3, Y, truck, bus, etc.) being put to market. Once they finally have a breather from that, this "clean up" stuff, like these types of upgrade options, a healthy used maintenance marketplace for out of warranty Model S & X's, and Model S & X redesigns (v2? chasing the mature competition luxury appointments, at least a step or two?), will have to be properly developed.

    So ... 2019? That's my estimate. Could be 2017 if Elon makes a point of doing it, or 2021 if Tesla just wants to do least-effort. And it could be done partially by 2017 (which would seriously open up this marketplace liquidity) if my suggestion above was taken, that owners who want to upgrade like this must also take delivery of a "conversion" kit to plug into their home and their old pack for time shifting fixed electricity equipment (home storage) -- this would skip the shipping of their old pack back to the gigafactory, and instead have it shipped to their home (usually a lot closer to where the battery swap is executed than the gigafactory), and there wouldn't have to be a gigafactory recycling step, and there wouldn't have to be the contention issue of selling a used pack to a new buyer; you'd be stuck with your own used pack, and you'd probably be pretty happy with it. See wk057's project, although, a Tesla conversion kit would work differently.

    I could see a roaming swap truck service, that would pull up in an electric truck loaded with half a dozen to a dozen new packs to your home, do the swap right there by a specialist, and the same team would have an electrician installing your conversion kit into your home electrical system, and then they mount up the old pack into your home, and give you back your car and your house and drive off, one pack lighter on the truck.
     
  10. bonaire

    bonaire Active Member

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    I can't see someone "needing" an upgrade from 90D to say 100D for a regular car to get a touch more range for $20K. However, new-orders and fleet type orders (Uber) would want the 100kWh for longevity if they are working an Uber job or taxi service or simply driving crazy miles at crazy speeds. Crazy.
     
  11. bob_p

    bob_p Member

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    They are only going to produce 200 100Kwh battery packs a week to get started, which is about 10% of the battery packs they need each week for new production cars. It makes sense to lock those into the highest priced P100DL models.

    They'll quickly run out of people willing to pay for the P100DL and as they increase the number of 100Kwh battery packs they are producing, they could start selling those first as P100D's (without the ludicrous upgrade) and then to 100Ds.
     
  12. Max*

    Max* Autopilot != Autonomous

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    Anytime between now and never.
     
  13. Aselias

    Aselias Member

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    It's a pity Tesla does not honour the customers that have chosen 90D for its (seemingly, not so any more) superior range. I have a 90D in order, not delivered yet, and would happily pay for the discounted upgrade before order is taken. Maybe I should delay picking it up until they release a similar offer for the non-P buyers.....?
     
  14. DFibRL8R

    DFibRL8R Member

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    Except if I were Uber, why would I buy one $100k+ Model S when I could buy two pre-owned Model S for the same price! One charges while the other is in use. Uber isn't doing many 300 mile trips after all.
     
  15. Airhawker

    Airhawker Member

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    Wow! Great response, thank you!
     
  16. finallybuying

    finallybuying Member

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    Wonder if there is a pattern to how Tesla has done the releases in the past that might be applicable here? For example, did they release the P90D first, and then release the 90D after? Or similar with 70 or 85?
     
  17. sandpiper

    sandpiper Active Member

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    Physically possible yes. But Tesla has, thus far, refused to replace smaller packs with larger ones. People have been asking for this since the day that the first 40s, 60s 85s rolled off of the line.
     
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  18. sandpiper

    sandpiper Active Member

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    As I noted in another post, I think that problem is more about marketing and price differentiation. Tesla sells the base 60D for 30K CAD$ less than the 90D. If you could buy a used 90 pack for 10K, put it into a 60D and then turn around and sell the new 60 pack for 5k to somebody else with a degraded 60 pack, that would completely destroy the value of the 90D. This problem will get worse as the cost of the cells drops further. At $100 / kwh a new 100 kwh pack is only $10K. At that point it becomes much more difficult to charge a lot more for more range.
     
  19. DFibRL8R

    DFibRL8R Member

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    Exactly. As Tesla builds batteries bigger and cheaper, eventually more people will not be willing to pay an exorbitant price to upgrade like the current $20k to upgrade existing P90D customers' batteries to 100 supposedly because the "used 90 kWh pack will have to be recycled." It shouldn't take $10k to swap a used 90 pack into another willing customer's Model S. They are just milking the customers that are willing to part with the cash to have the top model as long as they can get away with it.
     
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  20. Mikes90D

    Mikes90D Member

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    How surprising that you can't see the value of this.

    If the range increase for 90D to 100D is comparable to the range increase of P90D to P100D, then the range would be over 340 miles. For those of us who actually travel in a Model S (I know you don't) that will be significant.
     
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